Probably not much.
The release of the Indiana men’s basketball 2024-25 non-conference schedule has been the subject of some Online Discourse, because what are Indiana fans if not Mad Online?
Outside of the Battle for Atlantis, South Carolina is the only team the Hoosiers will see from a power conference before Big Ten play starts. Also notable is the lack of a neutral site matchup in Indianapolis (for now), which had been a staple for decades.
Before getting into this year’s schedule or considering what the strategy should be going forward, a quick history lesson:
Indiana lost all three of its marquee non-conference games last year, to UConn, Auburn, and Kansas. None of the games were particularly close save for Kansas.
The year before that, the Hoosiers got one of the best wins of the Mike Woodson era on the road at Xavier, but lost their other big-name matchups to Arizona and Kansas. That year, Indiana turned it around in Big Ten play to earn a four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Last year, Indiana did not turn it around fast enough and missed the tournament altogether with no marquee non-conference wins and a lackluster conference schedule.
Indiana is not alone in its recent non-conference struggles. Here’s how some of last year’s Preseason AP top 10 fared in their non-con slates:
- Duke: Losses to Arizona, Arkansas (108 in Kenpom). Win against Baylor.
- Tennessee: Three straight losses to Purdue, Kansas, North Carolina. Wins against Illinois and Wisconsin.
- Creighton: Losses to UNLV, Colorado State. Wins against Bama and Nebraska.
- Michigan State: Losses to James Madison, Duke, Arizona. Win against Butler.
The teams that did improve their resumes in non-conference play, namely UConn, Purdue, and Marquette, returned significant portions of their starting lineups from teams that finished in the top 10 of last year’s Kenpom rankings.
With the portal and NIL changing the recruiting landscape and how rosters are built, there are fewer and fewer teams that are playing their best basketball in the opening months of the season.
However high expectations are and should be for this coming season given the infusion of talent at Indiana, it wouldn’t be surprising if it took some time to come together.
A starting lineup with three transfers seems most likely (Carlyle, Rice, Ballo), and then there are another two (Goode and Hatton) who should see significant minutes off the bench. Plus a McDonald’s All-American freshman in Bryson Tucker.
Having a less challenging schedule of home games before Big Ten play starts up is a great way to get these new pieces some run together before the games really start to count.
The expansion of the conferences gives teams even less of an incentive to schedule big names in November and December. Indiana will now see 17 different programs over the course of its 20-game conference schedule.
Not all of the new teams are basketball powerhouses, but seeing teams like UCLA and Oregon on a regular basis will probably shift the calculus going forward. More opportunities for resume wins in conference play means less need to make them happen in non-conference play. Not only will teams likely need more time to mesh with higher roster turnover, but they now lack the incentive to put these unfinished products in the national spotlight early on.
Outside of our desire as fans to see Indiana take on big teams, the best argument for lining the non-conference schedule is that it helps generate national exposure for the program.
On that front, Indiana is still in a nationally televised event in Atlantis this year, and I hope they continue to do things like that in the future. There’s also the new series with Kentucky, which starts next season and runs for three years.
At the same time, I wonder how Michigan State, or Indiana for that matter, benefitted in having their early season struggles broadcast to millions of homes. It did not create a positive buzz on social media, that’s for sure.
I’ll of course continue to mourn things like the Big Ten/ACC challenge, but TV and the conferences killed those independently of Indiana’s own scheduling decisions. In the words of Lou Reed (as performed by Doug Yule, btw), It’s the beginning of a new age.