How did we get here
At the beginning of the season, if I were told that one of the teams entering Saturday’s matchup between Indiana and Michigan was undefeated and unhappy with its eight seed in the college football playoff, I would have thought the Hoosiers would probably be heavy underdogs.
That’s not how this season has unfolded.
Instead, no. 8 Indiana will be hosting unranked Michigan as 14 point favorites and an 86.8% chance of victory, per ESPN Analytics.
The biggest story surrounding the Wolverines this year has been their inability to replace J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. First-year head coach Sherrone Moore has tried out three different starting quarterbacks, including former Hoosier Jack Tuttle, who recently retired after one start with the Wolverines.
Davis Warren won the starting job out of training camp, but was benched following Michigan’s 28-18 victory over Arkansas State, in which he threw three interceptions.
Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle each got some starts before Warren won the job back prior to the Michigan State game, but Orji saw a few snaps again last week in Michigan’s loss to Oregon as Warren struggled against the Ducks defense.
Indiana will likely see both Warren and Orji, as Moore has stated that Orji will continue to see snaps to emphasize the running game from the quarterback spot. This isn’t the first time Indiana will have to prepare for a dual-threat QB, but another wrinkle nevertheless.
The quarterback issues have translated to offensive issues for Michigan, a team that’s rushed for 11 touchdowns while only passing for 10 versus nine interceptions. In each of Michigan’s three losses, the Wolverines were held to fewer than 20 points.
Looking at their schedule as a whole, it’s easy to notice that Indiana outperformed Michigan against both shared opponents, Washington and Michigan State.
While the Wolverines beat Sparty by a touchdown in Ann Arbor, Indiana reeled off 47 unanswered points in East Lansing to win by 37. Michigan lost at Washington, Indiana handled the Huskies.
The defending national champions still shouldn’t be taken lightly. Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards give Michigan one of the more talented, experienced running back rooms that Indiana has seen so far.
The Wolverines also have a good tight end in Colston Loveland, who leads the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns as a favorite target for any/all Michigan quarterbacks.
Michigan’s other strength is its pass rush, graded the top in the conference by PFF. Michigan’s defensive line rotation features six guys with multiple sacks on the season led by Josaiah Stewart and Mason Graham.
Indiana’s done well to protect Kurtis Rourke so far this year, but this will be it’s toughest assignment yet. Though Rourke has handled pressure well so far this year, Indiana’s offense has benefited from the explosive plays he can generate with time in the pocket.
I still have absolute confidence for Curt Cignetti and company to gameplan appropriately and move to 10-0, but this is the first time this season I’ve balked a bit at the spread. It could just be some residual IU football pessimism, or it could be the elite talent Michigan has throughout its roster.
Either way, if the Hoosiers can dismantle the defending champs the way they have most other opponents this season, it’ll be hard to argue that they aren’t a top five team nationally and a lock for the college football playoff.