On the Road Again
Indiana will hit the road for the third time this season to take on a 4-4 (2-3) Michigan State team fresh off a one-score loss in Ann Arbor that ended in a bit of a brawl.
Despite having out-gained Michigan by almost a hundred yards and dominating time of possession, a costly turnover and some empty drives kept Michigan State from a statement win. Expect Sparty to come out with a chip on its shoulder after a loss like that.
As a whole, Michigan State is having the kind of season one might expect from a team with a new coach, new quarterback, and new conference landscape to deal with. Unlike Indiana, MSU had a front-heavy schedule that saw them lose back-to-back blowouts to Ohio State and Oregon.
So far, MSU’s best win has been a 12 point home victory over Iowa just two weeks ago. That game against the Hawkeyes was the best performance of the season for sophomore QB Aidan Chiles, a top 10 recruiting prospect in his class.
On the season, he has thrown seven touchdowns versus nine interceptions, but has had some of his best performances the last two weeks. The last two games were the first two of the season that he had a completion percentage above 70%.
Outside of MSU’s early 24-27 win over Maryland, those were his only games against high-major competition where he posted a QBR over 51.7.
Despite his inconsistency and tendency to turn the ball over, Chiles has been a big play threat all season, as a passer and runner. He has completions of over 30 yards in six of Sparty’s first eight games and a couple of rushes for over 50 yards on the year.
Michigan State also has a pair of running backs in Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter that they lean on a lot. Each have over 85 carries and over 400 yards, combining for five touchdowns on the season.
Statistically speaking, Michigan State is near the middle of the Big Ten in just about every defensive category. These stats are heavily skewed by dominant performances against FAU and Prairie View (?) though.
Against power conference opponents, the Spartans have failed to hold a team to fewer than 20 points. The Ohio State offense that struggled to score three touchdowns at home against Nebraska scored 38 in East Lansing.
With Kurtis Rourke returning and an running back room that’s now proven capable of carrying the offense, expect Indiana to capitalize against the Spartans.
On the defensive side, Indiana will have to be sure to minimize big plays from Chiles and the running backs, who each have rushes of over 60 yards this year. That said, it’s not a group that’s scored a ton of touchdowns this season.
The biggest challenge for Indiana this week could be the road environment, which will be rowdier than Los Angeles and feature a bigger crowd than Northwestern’s temporary stadium.
Like I said last week (and will continue to say) Cignetti and his group have passed every test thrown their way though, so I don’t expect Saturday to be different, with MSU’s vulnerabilities and inconsistent play.