A Huge Homecoming
The no. 16 Indiana Hoosiers come off of a bye week for their homecoming against a 5-1 (2-1) Nebraska team that’s in a seven-way tie for second in the Big Ten, behind Indiana, Oregon, and Penn State, who remain undefeated.
This is, no doubt, the highest stakes game of the season and the Curt Cignetti era, so far. Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff show will be in Bloomington for the game, which has been sold out since October 10th. It will be Indiana’s first sell-out crowd since 2021.
Given how well the Hoosiers have performed in each game so far this season, Indiana is favored by 6.5 points and given a 76.5% chance of victory in this matchup. If the game goes as predicted, that would be Indiana’s closest game of the year, by far.
The first thing to know about the 2024 Cornhuskers is that they have a real talent at quarterback in true freshman Dylan Raiola. He was the top quarterback recruit in his class and has lived up to the hype so far this year with over 1300 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and just three interceptions.
Statistically speaking, he’s up there with Maryland’s Billy Edwards Jr. as one of the best quarterbacks Indiana has seen this season, which could be a cause for concern for an Indiana defense that struggled with a lackluster Northwestern offense.
Thus far, Raiola’s biggest weakness has been that he’s not particularly mobile. His longest carry on the season has been 15 yards while he’s been sacked 12 times, including six times for -55 yards in Nebraska’s lone loss of the season to Illinois.
Nebraska’s running attack lacks a true star, but has been fairly productive as a unit, averaging just under 4 yards per carry for 11 touchdowns and 820 yards. They spread the ball out in their running game, with four different running backs with over ten carries on the season and five wide receivers tallying at least one carry.
The Huskers will also challenge Indiana with their defense, which PFF ranks as the toughest Indiana has seen this season. Northwestern graded higher in run defense, but Nebraska’s coverage grade of 86.4 is far higher than the Wildcats’.
Nebraska’s defense averages over an interception per game, led by Malcolm Herzog Jr. who’s picked off two passes already this year. Four different DBs have interceptions for Nebraska, which should challenge Indiana’s depth at receiver.
This is certainly a more talented and better performing Nebraska team than Indiana has seen in some time, but there’s a reason the Hoosiers are still favored. Despite the 5-1 record, the Huskers have played in some close games against teams that haven’t looked great so far this year.
The overtime loss to Illinois continues to be excusable, but looks a lot worse after the Illini struggled to put away a Purdue team that had already appeared to have quit on the season before firing a coordinator.
Nebraska’s victories haven’t been as convincing as Indiana’s either, beating Rutgers by just one score and allowing the aforementioned Boilermakers to stick around for three quarters of a game.
If Indiana continues to execute at the level it has this season, the Hoosiers should still win, but this will be the toughest test yet for Cignetti and co.