Woeful Wildcats
Indiana hits the road for its third conference matchup this weekend against a 2-2 (0-1) Northwestern team that’s struggled to hit its stride this season.
For what feels like the first time this season, Indiana will enter as heavy favorites. The line is set for 13.5 while ESPN analytics gives the Hoosiers an 84.9% chance of victory.
Northwestern is still a Big Ten opponent though, led by the reigning conference coach of the year, David Braun. Braun is undoubtedly facing new challenges in year two, but he’s won in Evanston before.
Speaking of Evanston, it’s worth addressing where this game is being played. While Northwestern awaits completion of its new football stadium, its playing about half of its home games at Martin Stadium, the soccer and lacrosse facility right on Lake Michigan.
While the forecast looks good in terms of sunshine and moderate temperatures, winds in Chicago today sit at about 11 mph with wind gusts up to 17. Even in Soldier Field, which has the benefit of seating protecting the field of play, this kind of thing can impact a quarterback.
Bad passing conditions would hinder Indiana a lot more than it would this current Northwestern squad. Four games in and the Wildcats are on their second quarterback of the season.
As a team, Northwestern has yet to score a passing touchdown against a power conference opponent. On the season, the Wildcats have thrown three interceptions versus two touchdowns.
That Northwestern is not winless is a testament to their defense, as the running game has struggled so far this season as well. In Northwestern’s two wins, against Miami Ohio and Eastern Illinois, the Wildcats held their opponents to under 10 points per game.
Major conference opponents have had less trouble with the Wildcats defense. In a 24-5 win two weeks ago, Washington amassed 247 passing yards and 144 yards on the ground. Duke, who beat Northwestern 26-20, also passed for over 250 yards and three touchdowns.
In all, this matchup is basically the exact opposite of the Maryland game, but gives the Hoosiers another opportunity to prove that its success this season isn’t a fluke.
Per PFF, this will be the best defensive unit Indiana will have seen to this point on the schedule. Being able to move the ball and score against the Wildcats on the road will show us a lot about what to expect going forward from a unit that’s dominated so far.
Defensively, Northwestern’s inability to pass should give Indiana an opportunity to excel. The Hoosiers defense stood tough last week, but struggled a bit against Charlotte, so a strong performance would go a long way in calming fears on that end of the ball.