A Battle for the state, and more
Indiana begins its postseason play Friday night in South Bend in a College Football Playoff matchup with Notre Dame. There’s plenty to say and take in about the moment, which we’ve covered elsewhere, but Curt Cignetti is not one to get caught up in narratives.
Cignetti and his team will be going to South Bend to win and meet Georgia in the second round of the College Football Playoff. Here’s a look at what they’ll be going up against:
Rushing Attack
Notre Dame has a pair of running backs and a quarterback all averaging more than 5 yards per rush on a high volume of carries, all of whom have scored multiple touchdowns. On the season, the Irish have rushed for 40 touchdowns and passed for 19. All three also have runs of at least fifty yards on the season.
The biggest threat in their backfield is their primary back, Jeremiyah Love, who averages a whopping 7.1 yards per carry for 949 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. He has a higher overall offensive PFF grade than any back Indiana has seen this year, so Indiana will have its hands full containing him alone.
Quarterback Riley Leonard is averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 14 rushing touchdowns of his own this year, meaning Indiana cannot over focus on Love as a running threat. Leonard will have runs designed for him, but can also scramble if the pocket breaks down.
Then there’s Jadarian Price, third on the team with 89 carries but averaging 7.3 yards per carry for seven touchdowns, including a 70-yarder. The defensive front will not be able to take plays off if Love is off the field for any reason.
A few teams this year – namely Louisville and Texas A&M – were able to keep two or even three backs in check in close losses to the Irish, so it’s not an impossible feat. Northern Illinois also found success in limiting the run and pressuring Riley Leonard into two interceptions.
The Schedule
Mentioning Northern Illinois was the perfect segue into discussing the fact that Notre Dame’s schedule is maybe as lackluster as some accuse Indiana’s of being. Especially when you consider its loss to a Northern Illinois team that finished 6th in the MAC this season.
Big wins against the service academies, both of whom were ranked at the time, helped propel Notre Dame back into hosting status, but the Irish haven’t exactly excelled against the other quality opponents on its schedule.
Both Louisville and Texas A&M, two teams that did not finish the season in the AP Top 25, stayed within 10 points of Notre Dame in their losses.
Indiana outperformed Notre Dame against their one shared opponent with a caveat, shutting out Purdue with second string players en route to a 66-0 victory while the Irish allowed a touchdown in their statement 66-7 win in West Lafayette.
All this is to say that this could be a closer matchup even on paper than Vegas or ESPN’s analytics predict.
The Defense
According to PFF overall grades, Notre Dame will have the third toughest overall defense that Indiana has seen this year, behind only Ohio State and Michigan. Both of those units gave Indiana’s normally elite offense trouble.
Where Notre Dame really shines is in its pass coverage, which ranks higher than any defense Indiana has seen this year. The Irish have 17 interceptions this season and will be eager to bait Kurtis Rourke into his fifth of the season.
On the other hand, Notre Dame’s run defense leaves something to be desired. Hardly a top 50 unit per PFF, the Irish allowed nearly 200 yards on the ground in their home loss to Northern Illinois. Texas A&M and Louisville also rushed for over 125 yards against them.
Indiana has the running back talent to be able to exploit this weakness, but Mike Shanahan’s unit is at its best when Kurtis Rourke is also comfortable throwing down field, something that may be a challenge against Notre Dame’s coverage.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Shanahan tries to establish the run at the start, keeping things simple for Rourke in what will be a rowdy, cold road environment. As the game goes on though, especially if Indiana’s defense falters, the Hoosiers may need to test the Irish secondary.