This is the Big One
Indiana football will have its chance to quiet the critics and likely secure a spot, if not a home game, in the College Football Playoff this week in its matchup with No. 2 Ohio State.
We covered the stakes of the game earlier this week, but now it’s time to take a look at just what we can expect on the field Saturday in Columbus.
Before getting into the personnel and matchups, it’s worth noting that Vegas and most analytical models favor the Buckeyes. ESPN gives Ohio State a 73.2% chance of victory while PFF has it closer to 80%. The line is 11.5 points.
Part of this no doubt has to do with the game being in Columbus, where Ohio State is undefeated this year. With Ohio State’s postseason hopes also in the balance, expect the Shoe to be packed to the brim and rowdy.
The other variable heading in is the unfortunate news that the Buckeyes will be without their starting center, Seth McLaughlin, who suffered a torn achilles in practice this week. McLaughlin was one of the top graded centers in the conference this year, solid in both the pass and run games.
Even without McLaughlin, Ohio State is going to be the most talented team Indiana has seen yet, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
TreyVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have combined to give Ohio State one of the toughest backfields in the Big Ten, putting the Buckeyes in the top three in the conference in rushing yards per game.
The best rushing attack Indiana has seen to this point was Michigan’s which averages about 20 yards fewer per game than Ohio State. Indiana was able to bottle up Michigan’s rushing attack, but it helped that Michigan hasn’t had much of a passing game all year.
That will not be the case with Ohio State, who will also have the most talented receiving group Indiana has seen so far. Jeremiah Smith might be the best freshman in the country, while Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate could each be WR1s for less talented teams.
With all of these weapons around him, Will Howard has had a very productive season, behind only Kurtis Rourke QBR among Big Ten quarterbacks. He’s also been protected well, being sacked just nine times this year.
Indiana has the best run defense in the Big Ten by some margin, allowing just 72 yards per game on the ground. With a bye week to prepare, I’m not terribly worried about Bryant Haines’ ability to prepare for the Henderson/Judkins duo.
The bigger question will be whether Indiana can manage the run while also pressuring Howard and defending one of the best receiving cores in the country.
Other teams have had success getting to Howard this year. Penn State alone accounts for 1⁄3 of his sacks on the year, and Nebraska was also able to get him twice. It’s not an impossible feat, but will be the biggest ask for this defense of the year.
Offensively, Indiana will need Kurtis Rourke to be fully healthy and back to the player he was before his injury at Nebraska. He played well enough to get the win against Michigan, but Ohio State’s defense is the top in the conference. Each missed pass will have consequences.
Assuming he is healthy, I’m a lot less worried about Indiana’s offense. As we’ve seen, the Hoosiers also have a lot of depth at running back and receiver, plus the top quarterback in the conference. According to PFF, Indiana’s offense is the second best nationally.
At the end of the day, all of the stats point to this being a real challenge for Indiana, but not an unwinnable game.
I will shirk journalistic objectivity here to say that I still have not been given a reason to doubt Curt Cignetti, his staff, and the way this team prepares for games. Ohio State, on the other hand, has stumbled through a few wins this year.
Indiana has almost pulled this upset off so many times, but now it has the better coach and probably the better quarterback. This is a new Indiana that’s proven the media and Vegas wrong week after week.
I’m probably picking with my heart and unwavering belief in Cignetti and this 2024 group, but I like Indiana here. Because why not?