Will the spiral end?
Indiana men’s basketball hits the road today in hopes of ending a four-game losing streak that has effectively ended its postseason hopes and possibly forced Mike Woodson into retirement.
The Spartans are also trying to regain some positive momentum, after going 1-2 last week and suffering their first two Big Ten losses of the season.
Michigan State has yet to lose at home this season, making them the heavy favorites in this matchup. Kenpom gives Sparty an 82% chance of victory while Vegas has the line at 11 points.
Here are three things to know about the game:
Quality Opponent
Mike Woodson enters this game with a 12-game losing streak against ranked teams. He’s also more than 20 games below .500 in his career against Quad 1 opponents.
As a ranked Quad 1 team, Michigan State fits the profile of a team that could beat the brakes off Indiana tonight. The Hoosiers put up a good fight against Purdue on the road, but followed it up with a stinker in Madison that may be more indicative of the effort we see tonight.
This is the kind of signature win that’s evaded Indiana all season. With less to play for, do we see them finally pull it off?
Spartan Defense
Michigan State comes into this game with a top-15 defense, per Kenpom. This is going to cause a problem for an Indiana team that’s hardly in the top 70 most efficient offenses nationally.
The Spartans are holding opponents to 29.5% from 3-point range, good for 14th in the country, while also posting a 14.4% block rate, putting them 17th nationally. There will be no easy buckets tonight.
The good news is that Michigan State doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, so Indiana can be a little more deliberate in moving the ball and hunting good looks.
Small(er) Ball
Tom Izzo has found success this year going with a three guard lineup of Jeremy Fears, Jase Richardson, and Jaden Akins. Tre Holloman also averages 8.2 points per game off the bench.
The Spartans have a trio of bigs over 6’11, including a pair of true centers in Carson Cooper and Szymon Zapala, but they don’t feature heavily in the offense. Per Kenpom, Cooper is featured in fewer than 15% of the Spartans’ possessions despite being the starting center.
This is going to be a matchup problem for an Indiana team that’s struggled with consistent guard play. Mike Woodson has been opting with Anthony Leal’s experience and composure in the backcourt, but this is a matchup where he may be better off with Bryson Tucker or Kanaan Carlyle for their athleticism on defense.
Between the defense and backcourt, Michigan State has the profile of a team that’s going to be a bad matchup for an Indiana team that’s struggled to find ways to win over the last month or so.