Here’s what to watch for in the final week of the men’s college basketball regular season.
It’s the last week of the regular season and Indiana is jockeying for position on the NCAA Tournament’s bubble.
We’ve seen this sort of thing before, it’s not at all unlike Mike Woodson’s first year in Bloomington when a late surge in the Big Ten Tournament landed the Hoosiers in the First Four.
Indiana is in solid position right now but needs to do something against Oregon and/or Ohio State to feel good about itself. It could also use some help elsewhere.
Here’s your guide to high-major bubble teams to keep an eye on this week. Except Gonzaga, which feels like a bubble team but will almost certainly land in the field.
Big Ten
Nebraska
- The Huskers are crumbling down the stretch of the regular season, falling to Minnesota to close out a three-game losing streak. Their position is weakening and can’t afford to get any worse.
- AT Ohio State (Buckeyes by 6)
- VS Iowa (Huskers by 6)
Ohio State
- Ohio State is Indiana’s biggest threat within the conference right now. The Buckeyes have a better nonconference resume and superior metrics but fell to the Hoosiers on their home floor. Indiana must beat Ohio State at Assembly Hall to feel good on Selection Sunday.
- VS Nebraska (Bucks by 6)
- AT Indiana (Hoosiers by 1)
ACC
North Carolina
- Hubert Davis has landed himself squarely on the hot seat this year after another disappointing run. He deserves credit for last year’s success but can’t seem to string two good years together in Chapel Hill. That being said, the Tar Heels are hot at the right time and have ripped off five straight wins, albeit over middling ACC competition. Now, to make the tournament, he must contend with…
- AT Virginia Tech (Tar Heels by 8)
- VS Duke (Blue Devils by 12)
SMU
- Yes, SMU is in the ACC now. Also Andy Enfield is there. 2025 is weird, man. Anyway, the Mustangs are metrically fine and are one of a few solid teams in a truly dreadful high-major conference. They’re in the mix for a bid but probably can’t afford losses down the stretch here.
- VS Syracuse (Mustangs by 12)
- AT Florida State (Mustangs by 2)
Wake Forest
- Wake Forest is another one of those solid ACC teams. The conference isn’t doing them any favors, but the Demon Deacons are in position to be in position for Tournament play.
- AT Duke (Blue Devils by… 22)
- VS Georgia Tech (Demon Deacons by 7)
SEC
Vanderbilt
- Vandy has looked good in year one under Mark Byington, especially with the SEC being one of the greatest conferences we’ve ever seen this season. An 8-8 conference record might not look like much until you consider just how difficult the SEC is. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Commodores in regardless of the results this week and they can help Indiana by beating Arkansas.
- VS Arkansas (Commodores by 4)
- AT Georgia (Bulldogs by 4)
Arkansas
- Well, it’s John Calipari. This definitely looks like a Cal roster in Fayettevile but the results just are not there. Still, Arkansas has good enough wins and metrics to be firmly in the bubble picture until proven otherwise. This is one of the ones Indiana could really use some nudging on to get them out of the picture.
- AT Vanderbilt (Commodores by 4)
- VS Mississippi State (Razorbacks by 1)
Georgia
- Weird team. Georgia scored a win over St. John’s in the nonconference and looked pretty decent before becoming pretty pedestrian in SEC play with the exception of wins over Kentucky and Florida. The Bulldogs are probably on the outside fringe of the bubble right now but a few wins down the stretch and a tournament run could get people thinking.
- AT South Carolina (Bulldogs by 1)
- VS Vanderbilt (Bulldogs by 4)
Oklahoma
- Oh how the turntables… anyway, Oklahoma emerged victorious in what hindsight tells us was a really weird Battle 4 Atlantis Field. The Sooners proceeded to drop their first four games in SEC play and have only won four conference games total. Their resume is a house of cards held up by wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan.
- VS Missouri (Tigers by 2)
- AT Texas (Longhorns by 3)
Texas
- Another bubblicious SEC team experiencing something of a decline down the stretch. Rodney Terry is increasingly looking like a guy who could be on his way out of Austin sooner rather than later as Texas won all of two games in February. A 5-11 conference record should not be rewarded in March, I don’t care how mighty the SEC is.
- AT Mississippi State (Bulldogs by 7)
- Vs Oklahoma (Longhorns by 3)
Big East
UConn
- I mean, UConn is getting in. There’s hardly any debating this. The Huskies are not a great team but they’re still a good one. They’re only here because a few other sites have them around the bubble so I figured at least.
- VS Marquette (Huskies by 1)
- VS Seton Hall (Huskies by 17)
Xavier
- Xavier went from an up and down team to a winning one in the final stretch of the season, which has been tremendous for their tournament hopes. I’d say the Musketeers are probably getting in regardless after five straight wins, including a blowout over Creighton.
- AT Butler (Musketeers by 1)
- VS Providence (Musketeers by 9)
Big 12
Baylor
- Baylor’s metrics are probably too solid to leave them out but hey, you never know.
- AT TCU (Bears by 2)
- VS Houston (Cougars by 5)
Cincinnati
- I just don’t think Cincinnati belongs in the field. The Bearcats certainly aren’t terrible but they’re not all that good either. Too many losing streaks and a pretty uninspiring statistical profile. From a pure numbers standpoint it reminds me of some of Archie Miller’s Indiana groups. So, not thanks.
- VS Kansas State (Bearcats by 6)
- AT Oklahoma State (Bearcats by 3)
TCU
- The Big 12 has entirely too many abbreviated schools with three letters. TCU is not very impressive by the metrics and feels like a worse version of the Cincinnati team I described above. Again, no thanks.
- VS Baylor (Bears by 2)
- AT Colorado (Buffaloes by 3)
West Virginia
- Why is every Big 12 bubble team like this. Solid if not great defense but putrid offense. Anyway, yeah, West Virginia is fine but cannot string two straight conference wins together to save its life, it can only seem to do that with losses.
- AT Utah (Utes by 2)
- VS UCF (Mountaineers by 8)