How will our Hoosiers fare?
Indiana men’s basketball will be grateful for all the momentum its built over the last three conference games as it heads to Iowa City for the beginning of a stretch that could make or break the season.
As things stand now, the road game will be the first of 11 straight Quad 1 games for the Hoosiers, marking a step up in competition from some of the lower end Big Ten games. It’s not one of Fran McCaffery’s most heralded squads, but it’s a dangerous group nonetheless.
Things have been trending positively for Indiana, but this will be its first true road test since being blown out by Nebraska in early December.
Here are three things to watch for:
Spacing
With Malik Reneau marked as questionable for the contest tonight, it will be interesting to see how Indiana manages his potential return. The floor has looked more open in his absence, but Mike Woodson is unlikely to go away from one of his proven veterans.
Whether Reneau plays tonight or not, we might see a little less of the five-out sets that we’ve seen over the last three games. Oumar Ballo is going to have a big size and strength advantage over Iowa’s Owen Freeman that the Hoosiers are likely to cash in on for some easy points in the paint.
If Reneau is available, Woodson might be tempted to exploit Indiana’s size advantage even further, but it hopefully won’t be at the expense of the shooting and offensive spacing we’ve seen over the last three games.
Perimeter Defense
This is a classic Iowa squad with a top-20 offensive efficiency rating led by a high volume and high percentage of 3-point shots. None of its top nine rotation players shoot below 30% from the arc.
Owen Freeman’s perimeter offense will be a challenge for Ballo, who is a better defender closer to the basket. The real threat though is Payton Sandfort, a 6’8” forward shooting almost 35% from deep on over seven attempts per game.
Iowa’s guards aren’t going to overwhelm Indiana athletically, so the key will be Indiana’s discipline and communication on help defense. Over rotations and slow closeouts could kill Indiana tonight.
Juice
This is a game Indiana is projected to lose, but only by four points, according to Kenpom. Indiana’s smallest margin of defeat this year is 16 points.
One of the more impressive things over the recent Big Ten win streak has been Indiana’s ability to take punches, be it a sleepy start against USC or a comeback attempt on the road from Penn State, and still emerge victorious.
Iowa is a team that can punish Indiana’s mistakes with its shooting, and we’ve seen Woodson’s teams crash and burn against the Hawkeyes plenty of times in his tenure.
Getting out to an early lead would be ideal, but Iowa is always going to be able to shoot its way back into a game. If/when Iowa starts hitting shots, will Indiana respond or fold?