The Hoosiers take on the Cardinals at noon on Wednesday.
Indiana men’s basketball is set to open play in the Battle 4 Atlantis at noon on Wednesday, facing off with Louisville.
But these aren’t the same Cardinals from last year’s Empire Classic. There’s probably no zone defense trickery afoot. Kenny Payne is gone and has been replaced by Pat Kelsey, the former College of Charleston head coach.
It’s a massive game for Indiana, the most important of the nonconference slate. Should it defeat Louisville, Indiana will likely move on to face Gonzaga, which once again looks like one of the best teams in the country.
But you cannot risk overlooking this Louisville team for that opportunity. Here’s three things to know:
Pat Kelsey, the new man in charge
Louisville hired Pat Kelsey after two disastrous years with former Cardinal Kenny Payne at the helm of the program.
He’s been a pretty good breath of fresh air for a program that’s needed it for a while. His sheer enthusiasm for basketball and coaching at Louisville in particular is a stark contrast to the previous two seasons of Cardinal hoops.
Kelsey spent three years at the College of Charleston with records of 17-15, 31-4 and 27-8. Despite his regular season success, Kelsey was never quite able to bring it against superior competition in two first round NCAA Tournament appearances.
But, as Indiana fans learned with a different mid-major coaching hire back in 2017, tournament runs or even the lack thereof can be deceiving. Kelsey is a good coach and should have that program competitive at the very least.
Kelsey’s Charleston teams were not especially geared toward one side of the floor. His best, that 2022-23 squad, was pretty balanced on offense and defense. Last year’s group was significantly more of an offensive unit than a defensive one.
But there was one trend the past two years that has followed him to Louisville worth a bit of concern…
3-point shooting
It wouldn’t be an Indiana men’s basketball game without 3-point shooting discourse, would it.
Let’s start with Louisville. Pat Kelsey LOVES the long ball. His last two Charleston teams were in the top 20 nationally of 3PA/FGA, per KenPom. They shot the ball a ton and made 33% and 34.7% of those attempts. The sheer volume made up for a lackluster percentage.
He’s brought that tendency to Louisville. It’s still early in the season and will take some time for KenPom to fully shake out, but as of now the Cardinals are second in the nation in the percentage of their shots taken from deep.
Not second among high-majors. Second among all D-I men’s basketball programs.
They are making a paltry 29.4%. But any team that takes that volume of shots from long range can be extremely dangerous. Especially for a team like Indiana.
Indiana is susceptible to the 3-ball for a few reason. For one, the defensive system emphasizes help at the nail to limit drives to the paint. This, time and again, has led to wide-open shooters on the perimeter just waiting for the pass.
It happened in the first half against South Carolina before Indiana zeroed in on the arc in the second and started really limiting the Gamecocks’ attempts from deep. Indiana is going to need to bring that energy for all 40 minutes.
Another issue is that Indiana hasn’t taken all that many shots from deep itself. This creates a scoring gulf against perimeter-happy teams where the Hoosiers keep trying to counter three points with two.
Mike Woodson and Indiana’s players have all emphasized taking more shots from the perimeter this season. That’s not entirely apparent so far but the sample size is still too small for proper judgement.
One way or another, Indiana’s going to need to be ready to defend the perimeter and make its own shots on the other end.
Resume implications
Again, Indiana cannot look past Louisville. But I’d be remiss to not cover the ramifications of this event for the season.
This is Indiana’s only real shot to add onto its resume before Big Ten play. In a conference that can get wacky, the Hoosiers have to do absolutely everything they can to help themselves this week.
A loss to Louisville and a slog through the losers bracket will do them no favors. It would be far, far from a season ender but you’d much rather pick up some quality wins right now to have in your back pocket than depend on them down the stretch of Big Ten play.
I don’t think it’d be outlandish to call this a must-win. Indiana has to answer the bell and move on.