The Hoosiers could still make it into the bracket after all.
Indiana football’s loss to Ohio State on Saturday was its first disappointment of a previously unblemished 2024 season and planted a seed of doubt in its hopes of making the newly expanded College Football Playoff.
The Hoosiers could’ve all but locked up a bid with a win or solidified their case by keeping the game close, neither of which happened. After a result like that their fate was, and still is, out of their hands. They’d need some help.
And, well.
Indiana was No. 5 in the latest edition of the playoff rankings this past week. It promptly suffered a substantial loss to No. 2 whose only loss is to No. 1. The rest of the field?
- No. 6 Notre Dame crushed No. 19 Army
- No. 7 Alabama lost to unranked Oklahoma
- No. 8 Miami beat unranked Wake Forest
- No. 9 Ole Miss lost to unranked Florida
- No. 10 Georgia beat unranked UMass
- No. 11 Tennessee beat unranked UTEP
Oof.
So here’s the thing. Indiana is 10-1 with three wins over bowl eligible teams and one loss to one of the two best teams in the country that have both firmly separated themselves from the rest of the field.
Notre Dame will almost certainly rank in ahead of Indiana this week, but has an outstanding blemish of a home loss to 6-5 Northern Illinois. Alabama just lost to a now-6-5 Oklahoma team. Ole Miss did the same to a now-6-5 Florida.
So both the Crimson Tide and Rebels have losses to the kinds of teams (Again, 6-5, just like Michigan, Washington and Nebraska) that Indiana has made a habit of not just beating, but blowing out.
Another wrinkle? That Alabama team that just suffered that bad loss was No. 11 Tennessee’s best win.
Okay there’s resumes. Let’s get to bracket talk.
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the playoff. The next seven highest ranked teams will round out the bracket as at-large selections.
Here’s how that could shake out:
SEC Championship: Texas vs Georgia. The Longhorns have to beat a feisty Texas A&M team (that just lost to unranked Auburn) on the road. A loss there wouldn’t keep them out of the title game but could make things weird in the bracket. Georgia must do the same at home against 7-4 Georgia Tech, probably a safer matchup. Does the loser of the title game end up in the bracket? I’d lean toward probably without seeing this week’s rankings yet. Pencil in two here just to be safe.
Big Ten Championship: (likely) Ohio State vs. Oregon. Both of these teams will make the playoff. That’s two.
Big 12 Championship: Four teams are tied at 6-2. The highest ranked team of this group was BYU, which just lost to Arizona State, another 6-2 team. It’s most likely that just one Big 12 team will make the playoff.
ACC Championship: SMU vs Clemson/Miami. SMU comes in at 13th and could end up rising. Clemson is at 17th. Miami is 8th. There may be a world where two ACC teams make the playoff.
G5 Championship: This will likely end up being Boise State, Army or Tulane. Give the edge to Boise State as of now as they’re currently the highest ranked G5 team. Whatever happens, only one is getting in.
The chaos in the SEC this past weekend probably benefits Indiana quite a bit. There’s a reasonable argument that Ohio State’s first round playoff opponent would suffer a similar fate in Columbus and that Indiana lost to one of the two best teams in the country.
Indiana may not have a marquee win but lacks any poor losses. Notre Dame cannot say the same.
Alabama lost to unranked Oklahoma 24-3, Ole Miss lost to unranked Florida 24-17, Tennessee lost to unranked Arkansas 19-14. All of the unranked teams listed above are 6-5. Indiana has defeated its 6-5 opponents by scores of 56-7, 31-17 and 20-15.
There is absolutely a case for Indiana to get into the bracket as of now. It needs to beat 1-10 Purdue to get there and probably do so by a considerable margin. A blowout would certainly do the job and is firmly within the realm of possibility.