CFB Playoff Data Preview: Notre Dame VS Georgia

A look at what the data tells us about Georgia heading into the Round 2 CFP game against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame football’s next challenge in the 2024 College Football Playoff is Georgia. This is probably the highest stakes game for the Irish but also the trickiest to preview.

So let’s jump straight into it.

Season Summary

Georgia will be coming into the Sugar Bowl with an 11-2 overall record. Their two regular season losses came at the hands of conference opponents Alabama and Ole Miss and the Bulldogs final record against SEC competition was 6-2. They’re averaging a +12.7 point differential per game and the biggest wins were +45 against Tennessee Tech, +38 against UMass and +31 against Clemson.

The Bulldogs have had quite a few close calls along the way. They skated by with a +1 win over Kentucky (4-8 overall, 1-8 conference). They followed up that with a -7 loss to Alabama. A few weeks later, Ole Miss dealt them a -18 blow and we all thought that would be the end for their CFP hopes. But a +2 win over Georgia Tech to close out the regular season and a +3 victory over Texas to clinch the SEC Championship pushed the Bulldogs not only back into the mix but earned them a First Round bye.

Outcome Factors

Offensive Efficiency

Georgia has averaged around 6 yards per offensive play and hit lows of 3.8 yards in the Ole Miss loss and around 4 in both of the Texas games.

Passing Production

Georgia only had 186 passing yards in the Ole Miss loss but tallied up 439 yards through the air against Alabama. The Bulldogs had a season low of 136 passing yards in the 2^nd Texas matchup.

Rushing Production

The relationship between Georgia’s rushing production and differentials is pretty strong. When they move the ball well they win,

Turnovers

For such a successful team, Georgia has turned the ball over a fair amount. They gave it up three times in the Ole Miss game and four times in the Alabama game.

Game Details

Touchdowns

The Bulldogs have most consistently earned their touchdowns on the ground. The biggest outlier was probably the Georgia Tech game when they recorded five passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.

Production

Georgia is averaging 285 yards of passing offense, 129 yards of rushing offense and 414 yards of total offense per game. Again, there’s no big picture pattern to identify here.

Roster Details

Wide Receivers

Senior Arian Smith is Georgia’s leading wide receiver. He’s recorded 791 total yards from scrimmage, 15.5 yards per play and four touchdowns. Fellow senior Dominic Lovett has 571 yards and six touchdowns while Dillon Bell has 539 yards and five touchdowns.

Tight Ends

Sophomore Lawson Luckie is leading the team’s tight end group in production. He’s logged 348 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. Junior Oscar Delp has tallied up 230 total yards and four touchdowns.

Running Backs

Junior Trevor Etienne has been dealing with injury woes this season but has been the most prolific running back. He only played in nine games but has 739 yards from scrimmage, with 5.3 yards per play and nine touchdowns. Freshman Nate Frazier has emerged as Georgia’s leading running back. Frazier is sitting at 702 yards from scrimmage, 5.1 yards per play and eight total touchdowns.

Final Thoughts

One of the biggest takeaways that doesn’t push through via the numbers is that Notre Dame and Georgia are heading into this game hanging on by a thread in terms of player health. A lot of how it all plays out will come down to who can do the best with the pieces they have left. And fortunately for us, both teams are pretty stacked in the depth category.

The fatal factor for the Bulldogs, though, might be the loss of starting quarterback Carson Beck. From a stat perspective, the run game has been the Bulldogs’ most consistent predictor of success so the Beck loss might not be the end of the world. If it weren’t for how the Notre Dame offense has been showing up this year. Even with the injuries they just haven’;t cracked and have given inexperienced or less than elite quarterbacks hell.

The Irish offense is what it is and I’ve learned to not set expectations about what we’ll get out of it or how it’ll look. That’s why I didn’t do a big deep dive on Georgia’s defense. An important takeaway though is that the Bulldogs have generally allowed more yards on the ground than through the air and that defensive profile has proven a to be a recipe for disaster for all of the Irish’s opponents up to this point.

I’ve got a lot of faith in Notre Dame pulling this one off but I’m prepped for a long, stressful game down in New Orleans.

Cheers and Go Irish!!