COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF: National Championship Data Preview — Notre Dame VS Ohio State

A reading of the data cards going into the Irish’s championship matchup with the Buckeyes.

Notre Dame football has reached the final boss level of the 2024 College Football Playoff. This’ll be game #16 and their fourth postseason matchup in this new 12-team format. They took down Indiana in Round 1 (home game), Georgia in Round 2 (Sugar Bowl) and Penn State in the Semifinal (Orange Bowl). Their record is 14-1 and if they can defeat the Ohio State Buckeyes on Monday they’ll notch a 17th win as well as the program’s first National Championship since 1988.

It all comes down to this and there’s really no purpose in trying to be a chill guy about it all. It’s been a grueling season for this team but is also playing out like a storybook fantasy for the Irish. So let’s see what the Ohio State’s data cards have to say about Notre Dame’s chance to make history.

Season Summary

Ohio State is entering this National Championship game with a 13-2 overall record and 7-2 record against Big Ten opponents. They started the 2024 season off on a tear, averaging a +39 point differential across five wins. Within that span, their momentum ticked off slightly with a +35 win over Marshall, +31 win over Michigan State and +28 win over Iowa.

The Buckeyes ran into the eventual Big Ten champion, Oregon, during game 5 and recorded their first loss. It was a close came, though, and the Ducks won 32-31. Ohio State bounced back a bit in the Nebraska and Penn State games before receiving the confidence stimulus package the Purdue Boilermakers delivered to every team that they faced in 2024, except Indiana State.

Ohio State then rattled off two decisive wins against Northwestern and Indiana before tragically falling victim to Michigan for the fourth season in a row. Adding insult to injury, it was at home in Columbus. The Buckeyes had the momentum, by ESPN analytics, throughout most of the game but the still Wolverines squeaked out a 13-10 win. Similar to our Northern Illinois game, that defeat has been haunting them.

They got bounced out of the Big Ten Championship game but Ohio State has been running through CFP opponents. Granted, their victory margins have gotten progressively slimmer along the way. They were +25 against Tennessee, +20 in the revenge match against Oregon and +14 against Texas in the Semifinal.

Outcome Factors

Offensive Efficiency

Ohio State’s offensive efficiency has been all over the place up to this point. They hit a season high of 10 yards per play against Marshall but found a floor of 4.3 yards per play in the Michigan game. They were right at seven yards per play in the Oregon loss but hit 8.8 yards per play in the Round 2 rematch.

Passing Production

The Buckeyes are averaging around 265 passing yards per game. Their best outings have been on the bookends of the season and they’re averaging 308 yard through the air in CFP games. Their lowest point in the season was 175 passing yards in the Michigan loss but their production was about the same in both of the Oregon games. They had 326 passing yards in the loss and 319 yards in the win.

Ohio State’s pass completion percentage per game ranges from 84.6% (Indiana) down to 58.1% (Akron). For reference, they had 26 attempts in that Indiana game and 31 attempts in the Akron game. Their average is close to 29 pass attempts per game.

Rushing Production

Ohio State’s rushing attack was strong coming out of the gate but has ticked off significantly since the Iowa game. They recorded 273 yards against Western Michigan, 280 yards against Marshall and 203 yards against Iowa. On the other send of the spectrum, they tallied up 64 rushing yards in the Nebraska game, 77 rushing yards in the Michigan game and 81 rushing yards in the Semifinal game against Texas.

Turnovers

The Buckeyes have turned the ball over 15 times so far this season. Their have been five games where they gave it up twice. Those were Marshall, Iowa, Oregon (loss), Penn State and Michigan (loss). Both of their turnovers in the Oregon loss were fumbles and they threw a couple of interceptions in the Michigan loss.

Game Details

Touchdowns

Scoring through the air has been Ohio State’s strength. They’ve recorded 35 passing touchdowns and 32 rushing touchdowns. Their split in the Tennessee game was 4-2, in favor of rushing touchdowns. They were 3-2 in favor of passing touchdowns against Oregon and they finished with one passing touchdown and two passing touchdowns against Texas.

Production

Ohio State’s offense has been incredibly prolific in Playoff games. They hit 473 yards of total offense against Tennessee, 500 yards against Oregon and 370 yards in the Semifinal win over Texas. They’ve been far from pedestrian on the ground but the passing attack has been the most consistent part of their offense against CFP opponents.

Roster Details

Wide Receivers

Freshman Jeremiah Smith and senior Emeka Egbuka have been leading the Buckeyes’ wide receiver group this season. Smith has 1,279 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns while Egbuka has recorded 967 yards from scrimmage with 10 touchdowns. Sophomore Carnell Tate has also made a notable contribution with 704 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns.

Tight Ends

Senior Gee Scott Jr. is Ohio State’s leading tight end. He’s tallied up 249 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns across 15 games.

Running Backs

Senior TreVeyon Henderson and junior Quinshon Judkins have been responsible for the bulk of the Buckeyes’ rushing production. Henderson has logged 1,251 yards from scrimmage with 11 touchdowns. Judkins stat line includes 1,100 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns.

Final Thoughts

Ohio State is rolling into this game in great shape. But the data does chart out a few paths for the Irish to walk away victorious in Atlanta.

The Buckeyes’ offense has been strong, particularly through the air. I don’t feel the greatest about that but Notre Dame’s secondary has shown me enough over the course of the season to believe they’ll do their part. Ohio State hasn’t been able to do much on the ground recently and that’s been the biggest weakness for ND’s defense. The Buckeyes have also turned the ball over against good teams and that’s where this Notre Dame defense feasts.

I trust the Irish offense to do whatever it takes to pull their weight. Ohio State gave up 32 points in their first loss to Oregon. Tennessee scored 17, Oregon scored 21 and Texas put up 14 points in the Semifinal. The Irish are averaging around 25 points per gam in the Playoffs (27-23-27). The stats indicate that they should expect a bit more help from the defense against Ohio State than they got against Penn State but they’re going to have to put up more points than they have in the postseason.

But they pulled off a ton of tactical adjustments and threw in a lot of moxie to overcome a real deficit agains against Penn State. I wouldn’t wish that kind of a nail-biter on the Irish fans but it may turn out that a similar effort is going to be necessary in this game. And I’ve got a feeling that if that this team is up for the task.

Cheers and Go Irish!!