Some payback in there?
Like most of you, I am counting down the days to Notre Dame’s home playoff game on December 20th/21st. Because I’m bored at work and incapable of keeping my mind from wandering to college football, I decided I’d go ahead and rank all of Notre Dame’s potential first round opponents.
You’re going to see 9 teams listed here, and that’s because there are hypotheticals aplenty this weekend. An exhaustive list is best so there are no shocks when the final rankings are revealed.
To reiterate: these rankings are ordered from MOST DESIRABLE to LEAST DESIRABLE. In other words, the most desirable opponent is the team I think ND would have the best chance to defeat – nothing to do with how good the matchup would be (Alabama) or how rich the national narrative would be (Indiana). There will definitely be some Notre Dame-specific narratives baked into my highly scientific analysis, though.
1. UNLV Rebels
Matchup Scenario: UNLV wins Mountain West, Oregon wins Big Ten, Notre Dame seeded #5, UNLV seeded #12
Season Summary: Props to the Rebels for having an amazing season amid a remarkable program revival led by head coach Barry Odom. Many wrote off UNLV’s season when their starting quarterback, Matthew Sluka, entered the transfer portal after Week Three due to a crazy NIL-related debacle I won’t get into, but Hajj-Malik Williams has been brilliant since taking the reins, offering a true dual-threat option for the Rebels offense. UNLV ranks 7th in the country in scoring (38.7 PPG) and 4th in rushing offense (254.1 yards per game), propelling them to a 10-2 season and a chance at an auto-bid if they can take down Boise State.
Reason for Rank: It’s UNLV. Their schedule hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet, though they admirably faced Houston and Kansas on the road, defeating both. Close losses at home to Syracuse and Boise State are UNLV’s only other notable resume bullet points. If UNLV did end up taking on Notre Dame, the cold South Bend weather combined with the superior athletes Notre Dame has on both sides of the ball would likely result in Vegas favoring the Irish by double digits.
2. SMU Mustangs
Matchup Scenario: Clemson wins ACC, Notre Dame seeded #5 or #6, SMU seeded #11 or #12
Season Summary: Head coach Rhett Lashlee had big shoes to fill when he took over Sonny Dykes’s program, and he’s already in need of a new pair. The Mustangs have a juggernaut offense led by quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has done a nice job spreading the wealth since overtaking Preston Stone on the depth chart. The engine of this offense is Brashard Smith, one of the top rushers in the country, who has rushed for over 1,100 yards and 14 TDs. Unfortunately, it would likely be a 50/50 proposition for SMU to lose the ACC title game to Clemson and still make the CFP bracket, though we haven’t seen how the committee treats conference championship game losers in the 12-team format yet.
Reason for Rank: A weak schedule, inferior athletes, and satisfaction with the season, win or lose. SMU’s resume is closer to Notre Dame’s than one might think. They made mostly easy work of a middling ACC schedule with a Week 2 low-scoring home loss (though theirs was to a very good BYU team). Mustangs fans are already thrilled with this season, their first in the ACC, and a loss in the first round of the CFP won’t do much to harsh their mellow. When comparing them to Notre Dame’s other first round options, I think SMU is fairly desirable, especially at Notre Dame Stadium.
Matchup Scenario: Georgia wins SEC, Penn State at least keeps the Big Ten Championship close, Notre Dame seeded #7, Indiana seeded #10
Season Summary: What can be said about Curt Cignetti that hasn’t already been written? He’s pulled Indiana from the depths of Hades into the pantheon of the gods, going 11-1 in his first year in Bloomington – the best season in program history. His acquisition of QB Kurtis Rourke has resulted in an explosive passing offense led by walking chunk plays Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. at wide receiver. The two-headed monster of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton at RB has accounted for 22 combined TDs.
Reason for Rank: The Cinderella story has to end somewhere, and why not against Notre Dame? The stadium will be PACKED for this one, and unfortunately, I’m guessing you’ll see a fair amount of red in the stadium considering how much this game means to the Hoosier faithful. Nevertheless, Indiana has faced exactly two opponents above .500, Michigan (7-5, lost to Indiana 20-15) and Ohio State (10-2, defeated Indiana 38-15). Ohio State is the closest comparison to Notre Dame on Indiana’s schedule, and if this game goes anything like that one, the Irish will cruise. The only causes for concern are Indiana’s passing game and a potential mini-sea of red in the stands.
4. Clemson Tigers
Matchup Scenario: Clemson wins ACC, Oregon wins Big Ten, Boise State wins Mountain West, Notre Dame seeded #5, Clemson seeded #12
Season Summary: Expectations are always high at Clemson for Dabo Swinney, but the Tigers have spent the last four seasons not meeting them. Cade Klubnik and Phil Mafah returned with a revamped WR corps as ACC favorites alongside Florida State. While Clemson’s season wasn’t the epic faceplant FSU’s was, it was still moderately disappointing, including a blowout loss to Georgia in week one and another rivalry week loss to South Carolina to close the regular season. Klubnik and Mafah were excellent statistically this season, but the pair weren’t enough on their own to win the big ones.
Reason for Rank: A weak overall Clemson team and recent matchup history at Notre Dame Stadium. Morale at Clemson hasn’t exactly been high in recent years, and it’s a miracle that Clemson is even in position to automatically qualify for the CFP. They just don’t have the James Skalskis and Ben Boulwares on defense (nor do they have the top to bottom talent on offense like they did from 2015-2020). This Clemson team is still dangerous and well-coached, but if there’s one year to want Clemson in the postseason, it’s this one. Riley Leonard should take a page from LeNorris Sellers’s playbook and run all over the Tigers.
5. Iowa State Cyclones
Matchup Scenario: Iowa State wins Big 12, SMU wins ACC, Notre Dame seeded #5 or #6, Iowa State seeded #11 or #12
Season Summary: Matt Campbell’s name was tossed around the last time Notre Dame had a head coaching vacancy, and he’s a hot name again after leading Iowa State to a 10-2 regular season. Quarterback Rocco Becht has been solid as a passer and very good as a goal line rusher, but the bread and butter of this team is the WR duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who both reached 1,000 yards. The defense is very solid for the Big 12, too, holding opponents to less than 20 points per game.
Reason for Rank: Iowa State is good but not exactly awe-inspiring. Their pass rush is underwhelming, their rushing attack is average, and outside of their top two WRs, no player even reached 210 receiving yards. If ND can take those two out of the game, the Irish will likely have success. Sure, Iowa State can play in the cold, but Notre Dame would probably be one touchdown favorites in this matchup. The only worrisome part of Iowa State is the sudden vulnerability of Notre Dame’s secondary. If ND doesn’t learn from the tape against USC, Iowa State will attack the Benjamin Morrison-less Irish deep.
6. Boise State Broncos
Matchup Scenario: Boise State wins Mountain West, Arizona State wins Big 12 in blowout fashion, SMU wins ACC, Notre Dame seeded #7, Boise State seeded #10
Season Summary: The preseason surprise for Boise State, heralded correctly as a threat to earn the Group of 5 auto-bid, was Maddux Madsen beating out former 5-star USC transfer Malachi Nelson for the starting quarterback job. Ultimately, Madsen was the better game manager for an offense heavily reliant on Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty, the prolific Broncos running back. Jeanty, in leading his team to an 11-1 record, put up otherworldly regular season numbers: 2,288 rushing yards, 28 rushing TDs, 7.3 YPC. Their schedule was overall very weak outside of their trip to Eugene, a narrow 37-34 loss that carries Boise State’s resume and warrants legitimate caution for all potential higher-seeded opponents.
Reason for Rank: This is the most unlikely first round opponent of the bunch, but the reason for trepidation if it occurs is simple: Ashton Jeanty. He’s the only reason I fear Boise State. Maddux Madsen is just a guy, their receiving corps is fine, and their defense is just okay. Jeanty can keep Boise State in any game they play. Rain or shine, hot or cold, home or away, Ashton Jeanty will get his. If Notre Dame can stack the box and use a healthy linebacker rotation, they can keep Jeanty bottled up and the defense fresh. I don’t think Notre Dame’s offense will struggle to score against Boise State’s defense, and the line for this game should be ND -5.5 or so.
7. Arizona State Sun Devils
Matchup Scenario: Arizona State wins Big 12, SMU wins ACC, Notre Dame seeded #5 or #6, Arizona State seeded #11 or #12
Season Summary: Kenny Dillingham had quite the reclamation project on his hands when he took the Arizona State head coaching job in 2023. Herm Edwards had left the program in shambles: the recruiting cupboard was bare, the talent on the field was minimal, and sanctions loomed over the program. Unsurprisingly, Year One was a 3-9 slog. Year Two, however, was an unbelievable 10-2 turnaround. They’ve gotten a bit lucky, going 6-1 in one score games, but behind outstanding tailback Cam Skattebo (1,398 rushing yards and 17 TDs, plus 35/468/2 receiving), Arizona State is a major player.
Reason for Rank: Overachievers not built for this game, but they’re awfully good at finding a way to win. Sure, a run game travels, but the majority of the Sun Devils’ metrics are merely above average. That is perfectly fine to have a very good season, but keep in mind, the talent level on this team is supposed to be that of a rebuild, not a playoff contender. The lights will be too bright for ASU in South Bend, and the spread will likely be around a touchdown in favor of ND. Why are they ranked down here, you might ask? Well, I think Kenny Dillingham is an excellent coach, and they’re one of the hottest teams in football. Dillingham gets his teams fired up and finds ways to win. It’s hard to quantify other than a gut feeling that this game might not be a cakewalk.
8. Tennessee Volunteers Like most of you, I am counting down the days to Notre Dame’s home playoff game on December 20th/21st. Because I’m bored at work and incapable of keeping my mind from wandering to college football, I decided I’d go ahead and rank all of Notre Dame’s potential first round opponents.
You’re going to see 9 teams listed here, and that’s because there are hypotheticals aplenty this weekend. An exhaustive list is best so there are no shocks when the final rankings are revealed.
To reiterate: these rankings are ordered from MOST DESIRABLE to LEAST DESIRABLE. In other words, the most desirable opponent is the team I think ND would have the best chance to defeat – nothing to do with how good the matchup would be (Alabama) or how rich the national narrative would be (Indiana). There will definitely be some Notre Dame-specific narratives baked into my highly scientific analysis, though.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
Matchup Scenario: SMU wins ACC, Oregon wins Big Ten, Notre Dame seeded #6, Alabama seeded #11
Season Summary: Alabama was, as usual, one of the favorites to hoist the trophy heading into the season under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide were cruising along, including an instant classic against Georgia, until they went into Nashville and shockingly lost to Vanderbilt. Two weeks later, they lost in Neyland Stadium. Finally, in what was seemingly the nail in the coffin, Bama was soundly beaten by Oklahoma in Norman. The committee, though, still has 9-3 Alabama hanging on as the last team in the field. Jalen Milroe, the dynamic dual-threat QB, has been more effective as a runner than as a passer this year, boasting 20 rushing TDs but just a 15:10 TD:INT ratio as a passer. Jam Miller is a fine RB1, but not spectacular. Ryan Williams, though, is an incredible talent and surefire future first round NFL Draft pick, boasting body control and ball skills that rank him among the top wideouts in the country.
Reason for Rank: Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams, five-star talent, and the Alabama brand name and reputation. Unfortunately for ND, this is the most likely matchup based on Tuesday’s rankings. Sure, ND will have home field advantage in the cold, it’s a down Alabama team, and the Irish are still favored by 3 points. Still, I find it hard to believe that any Irish fan would want Alabama over any of the 8 teams listed previously. Nick Saban brought teams with similar talent into the 4 team playoff, so the talent is there. Kalen DeBoer has two games of CFP coaching experience as well. I worry the Irish might be punished with Alabama for moving up to the 6 seed.
No matter whom Notre Dame draws, the Irish should be the favorite. I’m so excited to be on campus and tailgate in the ice cold Stadium Lot before the game, and I will most certainly drink like a champion that day.
Go Irish!