Week 12 Data Preview: Notre Dame VS Virginia

Some data points going into Notre Dame’s matchup with UVA.

Notre Dame’s Week 12 opponent is Virginia. The team is coming into Saturday’s game with a 5-4 overall record and 3-3 record against ACC opponents. Even with that record they’re still sitting at #7 out of 17 in the conference standings.

ACC Context

A quick update on the ACC situation. Right now, freshman member SMU is ranked #1 with an 8-1 overall record and undefeated against five conference opponents. Clemson is #2. The Tigers have faced the most conference opponents and is 6-1 in ACC play. Miami (FL) tumbled to #3 after losing to Georgia Tech and ending up 5-1 against conference opponents. Louisville is #4 and 6-3 overall, 4-2 against ACC opponents.

This week’s CFP rankings have Clemson at #20, Louisville at #19, SMU at #14 and Miami (FL) at #9.

It they were a full member, Notre Dame would be leading the ACC in both the CFP rankings and conference standings. The committee placed the Irish at #8, up from #10 last week and they are 4-0 against ACC opponents. As much as I want to be angry with the ACC, somehow this arrangement continues to work out. If you’re only going to be partially in a conference and still fine tuning your program, the ACC is the ideal home.

Season Summary

But back to Virginia.

They’ve shown glimpses of promise but haven’t been able to find consistency. They kicked things off with a +21 win over Richmond and followed it up with a 31-30 win over Wake Forest. Then they dropped a -14 game to Maryland. UVA beat Coastal Carolina and Boston College by decent margins but things have been all over the place since then.

-4 against Louisville but +10 against #20 Clemson. -27 against North Carolina and then +5 against Pitt last week. For reference, North Carolina is also 5-4 but 2-3 in conference play.

Offensive Summary

The Cavalier’s offense has been relatively solid. They’re averaging 254 yards of passing offense per game and 144 yards of rushing offense per game.

The downtick in total offense is mostly attributed to UVA’s run game. They had a monster game against Coastal Carolina but if you remove that they’re averaging around 113 yards per game on the ground. They hit low lows against Clemson and North Carolina but bounced back to shape and recorded 170 yards of rushing offense last week against Pitt.

The Virginia passing attack has been consistently ok.

Rushing Details

Sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea is leading UVA’s rushing group in carries. He has 104 attempts through Week 11 and has earned 259 yards for his efforts. Transfer running back Kobe Pace is leading the team in rushing production. The Clemson came to Virginia with 4 seasons of experience at Clemson and has 442 yards. Junior running back Xavier Brown has 68 attempts with 436 yards.

Receiving Details

Senior wide receiver Malachi Fields is Virginia’s receiving superstar. He’s pulled in 45 catches for 665 yards. Tight end Tyler Neville is #2 in production with 27 catches for 325 yards. Familiar name Chris Tyree has the third most receptions of UVA’s receiving corps. The wide receiver who spent four solid seasons with Notre Dame has 22 catches for 124 yards this season.

Defensive Summary

Virginia would probably be having a much more successful season if its defense was in better shape. They’re allowing 395 yards of total offense per game. The Cavalier defense’s worst performances came against Wake Forest (544 yards allowed ) and Clemson (539 yards allowed). They’ve proven porous against both the pass and the rush, although slightly more against passers. They have allowed an average of 263 passing yards per game and an average of 133 rushing yards per game.

Final Thoughts

This should be an interesting game for Notre Dame. Virginia has shown one real flash this season, the 48-31 win over Clemson. But when they’ve faced other big name teams they’ve lost.

Notre Dame is coming in with a real head of steam and although I think the Cavaliers will make the game competitive, Notre Dame walks away with the win. It likely won’t be as lopsided as we’ve gotten used to in recent weeks but still a very feasible next hurdle for the Irish.

Cheers and Go Irish!!