Week 14 Data Preview: Notre Dame VS Southern Cal

Some data breadcrumbs heading into Notre Dame’s regular season finale against USC.

Well folks. We’ve made it to the final game of the 2024 college football regular season. The road was rocky early on but it’s looking like the Irish are going to park this thing in a pretty impressive spot.

The last hurdle they’ll face are the USC Trojans. The CFB fates have not treated USC well this season and they’re currently sitting at #10 in the Big Ten. Their overall record is 6-5 and 4-5 against conference opponents.

Season Summary

The Trojans started off the season with a bang and defeated LSU 27-20. And then they shutout Utah State (Mountain West) 48-0. Since then, they’ve only faced Big Ten opponents, though and it’s been shaky. Their losses to Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland and Washington were all close, none larger than a -7 differential. But it’s still five losses. Factor that in with LSU’s implosion and this is yet another underwhelming year for USC.

Offensive Summary

USC’s offense is averaging 422 yards of total offense per game, with its most productive games coming in the season’s first half. But they’ve been trending downwards since then and only had 346 yards of offense against UCLA. The passing game contributes the most to their overall production. They’re averaging 285 yards per game through the air and 144 yards on the ground.

The Trojan’s passing attack has been on a down slope recently. They had 336 passing yards against Maryland but only recorded 260 yards through the air in the UCLA game. Accuracy has generally been solid but they hit a 54% low against Michigan.

Their rushing game has been very cyclical. They’ve hit a peak of 249 yards in the Utah State game but only tallied up 69 yards against LSU.

Rushing Details

Jo’quavious “Woody” Marks is the heartbeat of USC’s rushing group. The senior running back has gotten 192 carries so far this season and they’ve translated into 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns. Freshman running back Quinten Joyner is the #2 back by a wide margin. Joyner has recorded 53 rush attempts for 395 yards and three touchdowns. And there’s really not much rushing production to be found elsewhere on the Trojan’s roster.

Receiving Details

USC has demonstrated depth at the receiver positions. Running back Marks leads the team in receptions, 42, but only has 321 receiving yards through Week 13. Sophomore wide receiver is #2 in catches and production. He’s tallied up 43 receptions for 458 yards. Sophomore receiver Makai Lemon leads the group in receiving production, with 532 yards on 37 receptions.

Defensive Summary

The Trojan defense has been feast or famine this season.

They’re allowing an average of 366 yards of total offense per game. The season high is 518 yards allowed by Penn State and the floor is 190 yards by Utah State. Opponents have beat USC the most through the air. Teams are averaging 246 passing yards per game, compared with 130 rushing yards per game. Their worst game defending the pass was against Penn State when they gave up. 400 yards. They were moving in a positive direction for a while but gave up 376 passing yards last week in the UCLA game. USC’s defense allowed 290 yards of rushing yards against Michigan but they’ve generally held opponents to less than 120 yards on the ground.

Final Thoughts

USC doesn’t really have much to play for outside of pride in this game. It’s Lincoln Riley’s third season as head coach, though, and I imagine the personal stakes are a bit higher for him. The team isn’t in the mix for the CFP but are bowl-eligible. The Trojans have lost against good teams and not so good teams but they’ve faced one of this season’s tougher schedules.

I haven’t bet against the Irish defense (not to be confused with the team) yet this season and I’m not about to start now. USC relies heavily on one running back and although they’ve got a talented stable of receivers, there’s nothing on paper that says the Trojan offense is better than anything Notre Dame has faced already.

Sure they’ve been stingy against the run but so was Louisville and Army. The Irish offense is cooking and again, there’s nothing about the data that gives me the feeling that they’ll struggle this weekend.

Let’s end this regular season on a good note.

Cheers and Go Irish!!