Week 2 Preview Notre Dame VS Northern Illinois

A look at the data going into the Irish’s week 2 matchup against the Huskies.

Northern Illinois is next up for Notre Dame football. The Huskies defeated their Week 1 FCS opponent Western Illinois, 54-15. The team’s 2024 roster consists mostly of home-grown talent and they finished last season 6-6 during the regular season. They lost to all of their non-conference opponents (including FCS Southern Illinois) except for Boston College (27-24 OT, regular season) and Arkansas State (21-19, Camelia Bowl).

Offensive Summary

Northern Illinois’ offensive strength has been a big point of discussion already and the data reflects that there’s a lot to look for on that side of the ball.

Overall, the Huskies had 706 yards of total offense in Week 1.

During the first game of 2024, nine players contributed to the team’s 312 total rushing yards. There were 41 total rushing attempts and the team-wide efficiency was high at 7.6 yards per carry.

Eleven players contributed to the team’s 394 total passing yards. There were 29 total attempts and 23 completions with an average of 13.6 yards per completion.

Quarterback Summary

Senior quarterback Ethan Hampton will be the likely starter for Northern Illinois on Saturday. This is his first real season of play at the collegiate level. Although he logged technical playing time in four games last season, it was only substantive in three. Two of those ended in losses (Nebraska, Tulsa) while the last was a win against Akron.

From a quant perspective, Hampton got off to the best start anyone could hope for. With the big asterisk that his first opponent was Western Illinois. He was 90% successful on 20 passing attempts. When it was all said and done, he had tallied up 328 passing yards and five touchdowns. Two other quarterbacks got playing time during the blowout but I don’t imagine they’ll see the field against Notre Dame and their numbers from the season opener are mostly inconsequential.

Rushing Details

Northern Illinois was pretty generous with its spread of rushing carries during Week 1. Running back Antario Brown led in production, with 69 yards on eight carries. Wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph pulled off a long run and tallied up 67 total rushing yards on only two carries. The yardage distribution among the Huskies’ other running backs was pretty level.

Receiving Details

Tight end Grayson Barnes led the team in Week 1 receptions, 5, but Trayvon Rudolph was close behind with four. Rudolph had the slight edge when it came to total receiving yards.

Scoring Details

A lot of Huskies ended up finding the end zone during their Week 1 rout. For context though, Western Illinois is an FCS program that lost all of its 2023 games by an average differential of -33. Western Illinois’ opponents scored an average of 46 points per game so the Huskies’ production shouldn’t really be seen as special.

Northern Illinois’ wide receivers did most of the scoring during Week 1 and wide receiver Rudolph ended with a touchdown through the air as well as one on the ground.

Defensive Summary

The data doesn’t tell us much about the Huskies’ defense. Western Illinois scored an average of 12 points per game in 2023 so it’s not as if they had a ton of offensive force to throw at their neighbors to the north. For whatever it’s worth, Northern Illinois seemed to be more adept at stopping the run. Western Illinois had 298 yards of total offense, with only 94 of them coming on the ground. Their one touchdown came via the air late in the game’s 4^th quarter.

Final Thoughts

Northern Illinois had a big win last weekend and I’ve got to imagine that they’re riding a high right now. I hope that whatever the outcome of Saturday’s game, they can hold on to some of that and have a solid 2024 season.

But I’m pretty sure the Irish walk away with a decisive win. The Huskies offense tilted ever so slightly towards the pass in Week 1 and given what we saw from ND’s defense, particularly the secondary, I don’t think that’ll translate well. It’s just a matter of when not if the Irish defense locks things down.

And then it’s Notre Dame offense’s game to win. Say what you want about Riley Leonard’s passing capabilities, but I imagine he’s going to have a decent day considering that Western Illinois put up 204 yards through the air. Combine the more robust rushing threat and it should be good home opener for the Irish.

Positive thoughts. Fend the intrusive thoughts off.