Things are even bleaker than you think.
I’ve defended head coach Ryan Walters all throughout this nightmare of a season. I’ve called for temperance. I’ve called for him NOT to be fired. After just a season and a half it didn’t feel like enough time to make a decision that would cost Purdue a lot of money (we’ll get into that below). However, after the Wisconsin game I don’t know that I can continue to defend him. Not only has there not been improvement, there’s been a move backward. Plus, Purdue is seeing decommitments from high profile recruits just about once a week of late. This is simply unsustainable. So, just how bad is this Purdue football team right now? Let’s check in with some numbers.
Purdue’s current rankings among all FBS teams (reminder that right now there are 134 FBS teams):
- 120th in yards per game
- 120th in points per game
- 120th in yards allowed per game
- 124th in points allowed per game
- 121st in penalty yards per game
- 118th in time of possession
- 124th in turnover margin
These numbers are bottom of the barrel no matter how you look at it. But, Andrew you’re saying, surely you can’t compare Purdue to the nation as a whole, what about say to the last Purdue team to go 1-11? Funny you should ask, I’ve also got some numbers to show you there. Through the first five games of the 2013 season, Darrell Hazell’s first season, Purdue was 1-4. Their first five opponents were at Cincinnati, home against Indiana State, home against Notre Dame, at Wisconsin, and home against Northern Illinois. So far this season Purdue has played at home against Indiana State, home against Notre Dame, at Oregon State, home against Nebraska, and at Wisconsin. I would argue those are pretty similar matchups, including three that are exactly the same! So, how do the offense and defense compare?
- 2013 – Offense – 17 points per game
- 2024 – Offense – 18.5 points per game
- 2013 – Defense – 36.6 points per game
- 2024 – Defense – 36.8 points per game
So, if you do that quick math, it shows you that Purdue under Ryan Walters is 1.3 points per game better than they were under Darrell Hazell in his first season, where Purdue only beat Indiana State and finished 1-11. This season is playing out eerily similarly, with fewer close games. Remember that Purdue only lost 31-24 to Notre Dame in 2013.
What about the buyout? Well, Ryan Walters, should he be fired, is owed 75% of the remaining terms of his contract paid out over the remaining time period.
- Year 2 – $4.05 million
- Year 3 – $4.10 million
- Year 4 – $4.15 million
- Year 5 – $4.20 million
So for the next three seasons Walters is owed $12.45 million. That does not include the remainder of his $4.05 million should be be fired after the Illinois game. Just for the sake of the math let’s look at both figures.
- Fired after Illinois game – $12.45 million + 2.025 million = 14.475 million x 75% = $10.85 million
- Fired at the end of the season – $12.45 million X 75% = $9.3375 million
There you have it. Those are what I deem to be some pretty important and damning numbers. Do you have any I left out? What should Purdue do with Ryan Walters?