Hope you like hypotheticals about football staff changes!
Purdue fans are rightfully displeased with the performance of the Boilermakers football team in a still-young season. Former offensive coordinator Graham Harrell was fired after a lackluster loss in a winnable game because first-time head coach Ryan Walters had to do something.
The Boilermakers just lost a game 52-6 and it’s still just the second-worst loss of the season. Let that sink in.
Let’s go ahead and ignore all contract stipulations, the main being buyout(s).
What this is presupposing is that Ryan Walters is fired sometime between now and the last game of the season. His five-year contract is set to last until 2027, but a large contingent of Purdue fans and alumni (so, donors of all size wallets) are calling for change this early in the coach’s tenure. I cannot say the reasoning is unfounded.
Let me preface this that I wish Ryan Walters success and a miracle to turn this ship (train) around, but the on-field product has been poor and I don’t quite think that’s going to happen.
The question is: if you fire Walters prior to the week of conference championship games, when do you do it?
First, going into this week, we have not yet seen a firing of an FBS coach in this season. That doesn’t really matter as a guy who gets fired after five or six games probably isn’t worth pursuing as your next coach, but it’s worth mentioning.
Then, you look at guys who are on the hot seat at other big programs. Do they wait to fire a Billy Napier, a Mike Norvell, a Dave Aranda? I’m not necessarily suggesting any of those three should be the first guy on Purdue’s hypothetical list, just naming coaches at big programs who are likely to be looking for a new gig soon.
This whole brain exercise brings up so many hypotheticals.
Do you fire Walters sooner rather than later and hope to be in discussions with your ideal next head coach by November? Do you wait until December and engage in the coaching carousel for a guy who, by Purdue’s budget, is cool with around $4-5 million a year? Can Purdue raise the funds for a buyout while offering the next guy more than Walters?
And with the next guy, the route you take also affects the timing.
I doubt Purdue’s athletic department is going to try to snipe a coach who’s already doing relatively well at another major conference institution. That’d take even more money. So let’s throw that idea out the window.
You have three options left: a dude who just failed at a big football school, a successful mid-major coach who wants a new project, or a plucky upstart coordinator who’s never been a college head coach before. That was the story of Walters, so additionally I doubt Purdue’s AD would go that route twice in a row in this hypothetical 2024 firing.
If you take what’s behind door #1, you can theoretically fire current coach sooner to negotiate details before season’s end, which would definitely help in the recruiting world.
Mind you, a head coach or coordinator can agree to become a head coach elsewhere and still fill out his season (a few weeks) while essentially working as a recruiter for his new team. It’s just easier if you start sooner and aren’t splitting time.
If you choose door #2, the aforementioned job splitting still applies, but you have the added advantage in recruiting of “LOOK WHAT OUR NEW COACH ACCOMPLISHED IN THE MAC/SUN BELT/CONFERENCE USA!” which stirs excitement and you’ll get some likely flips from the higher-ranked recruits he had committed to [insert mid major team of your choice].
If you choose door #3, again that’s a huge gamble that doesn’t always pay off. We’re seeing that in real time as Purdue folks. I don’t see us going this direction twice in a row, but the advantages of flipping recruits is the key here. Let’s say you get a young offensive coordinator from a historical powerhouse. Like option #2, the flipping power is huge with one main pro and one main con:
Pro: The three players he brings with him might be a five-star QB, a five-star receiver, and a four star tight end (all high school prospects) as opposed to the mid-major coach bringing six solid guys.
Con: You better hope he can utilize that talent while assuming all the extra responsibilities of a head coach, including hiring the right staff on the other side of the ball. Flip-flop this to defensive coordinator if you’d like, but I think you get my example of “so you hire a young OC…”
There are so many things affecting such a huge decision that I’m sure all of us at H&R will be musing about for a few weeks. Sound off if you have any strong opinions on which direction should be taken, or, heck, if you think Walters should get one more season to attempt a turnaround.
Boiler Up. Sunnier days are ahead.