Indiana is going to need some help from the Boilermakers to keep this one competitive.
#10 Purdue (16-5, Big 10 – 8-2) vs Indiana (14-7, Big 10 5-5)
Indiana Roster
Indiana on Offense
The first thing that stands out about the Hoosiers is their shooting—or lack thereof. The I.U. Rec Center is full of guys who are lethal from anywhere inside half-court, but the actual basketball team has wreaked havoc on Big 10 rims this season. Rumor has it that Iowa had to completely replace their goals after I.U.’s 4-for-16 barrage of bricks from deep, which not only warped the rim but also contributed to an 85-60 annihilation by the Hawkeyes.
That’s been the story of Mike Woodson’s team this season. Sometimes, they shoot well, like they did against Penn State, hitting 9-of-23 from distance in a 77-71 road win over the Nittany Lions. Other times, they shoot poorly, as they did at home against Illinois, when they went 4-for-18 from behind the arc and suffered a 94-69 thrashing.
To be fair, Indiana fully acknowledges its struggles from the perimeter. Their 32.1 field goal attempts per three-pointer attempted rank 333rd in the nation. They don’t want to shoot from the outside, but when they can’t, it makes what they really want to do … attack the rim with their bevy of high-level athletes … much harder. Remember when Purdue had a bunch of rim-finishing guards and post players, and teams zoned them so much that Matt Painter made a blood oath to recruit a shooter in every class? That’s where Indiana finds itself now.
It’s odd—Indiana shouldn’t lack shooters. Mackenzie Mgbako has yet to fully live up to his five-star status as a knockdown shooter on the wing. He’s hitting 36% from deep, which isn’t bad, but he’s gone ice cold at times. Starting on January 8th, he went a combined 0-for-15 from three over a four-game stretch before bouncing back with a 5-for-12 performance against Northwestern and Maryland in I.U.’s last two outings.
Luke Goode is an elite shooter, hitting 42% from deep, but like Mgbako, he’s been streaky. He went 5-for-7 against Sam Houston but was 1-for-6 against Winthrop. If Indiana wants to stay in this game, both Goode and Mgbako need to hit outside shots to loosen up Purdue’s defense and create space for Oumar Ballo to maneuver in the post.
When things are going well for the Hoosiers, Ballo is usually involved. In their upset win over Ohio State on January 7th, the big man posted 21 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, and two blocks. Dare I say those are Edey-esque numbers? With a dominant post presence like Ballo, you’d expect Indiana to have a better record than 14-7. Yet, he’s only third on the team in shot attempts despite shooting an efficient 65% from the field. Ballo is tough to guard on the block, but Indiana’s lack of shooting makes it difficult to feed him inside. Their best offense comes when Goode is on the floor, delivering entry passes to Ballo or Malik Reneau in the post—but it doesn’t happen often enough. Too frequently, the ball ends up in the hands of Myles Rice or Mgbako and never moves again.
Purdue’s primary focus tomorrow night should be securing the defensive glass. Ballo and Reneau are both strong rebounders who carve out significant space under the basket. My biggest concern is Trey Kaufman-Renn getting whistled for fouls while battling them on the boards. Mason Furst and Will Burgess will have their hands full with Ballo, but they have a combined 10 fouls to give, and I wouldn’t be upset if they used them all—especially since Ballo shoots just under 60% from the foul line. For Furst, Burgess, and even Camden Heide, sending Ballo to the line rather than giving up easy buckets should always be the move. However, Kaufman-Renn needs to be smart and avoid getting caught up in foul trouble.
Then there’s Trey Galloway and Anthony Leal. Galloway leads I.U. in assists and can be a tough matchup when he takes over the point guard role at 6’5”. Indiana can put NBA-level size on the floor when Galloway plays the point and the 6’5” Leal plays the two. That lineup doesn’t see a ton of minutes, but it could create matchup problems. Speaking of Leal, the former Indiana Mr. Basketball is experiencing a bit of a late-career resurgence. His minutes have fluctuated this season, but he seems to have cemented himself as a regular rotation player. In fact, don’t be surprised if he starts over Galloway—though he likely won’t play as many minutes. Leal got extra run while Reneau was sidelined, and he provides Indiana with a veteran playmaker on the perimeter.
Purdue will need to figure out how to handle Braden Smith on defense if I.U. utilizes its jumbo lineup. The one clear advantage Indiana has over the Boilermakers is size, but that’s been a common theme for Purdue this season.
Indiana on Defense
Indiana’s defense is decidedly average. They have the size and athletes to make things uncomfortable for opposing teams, but they don’t play well as a unit. They allow teams to shoot 33% from three (161st in the country) and 49.7% from two (137th).
For my money (which is currently negative because my dog is on his fourth day at the UGA animal hospital…if y’all could send some good vibes for Otis, the notorious garbage gremlin, I’d appreciate it, he’s 15 years old and is having kidney issues. He means the world to my 10-year-old despite all of his lumps, bumps and smells), Indiana’s ability to handle Purdue’s high pick-and-roll with TKR and Braden Smith will determine whether this game ends in a Purdue win or a Purdue obliteration of Indiana. I don’t think Ballo can handle TKR in the short roll, and I don’t think Reneau can handle him on the block.
Speaking of blocks, Ballo’s 5.8% block rate ranks 145th in the country. He also forces a few “non-blocks,” where guards decide discretion is the better part of valor and don’t even challenge him at the rim. I’m interested to see what happens when Purdue plays Heide at the four. My guess is that Indiana tries to hide Ballo on Furst early, allowing him to serve as a weak side shot blocker. But when Heide enters the game, Ballo will likely have to rotate over to TKR, and that’s when Purdue needs to pick-and-roll him to death. The farther Purdue can pull Ballo from the basket, the better.
The only lingering concern is Indiana’s size in the backcourt. Rice, Galloway, and Goode spend the most time on the floor together, and at 6’3”, 6’5”, and 6’7”, they could pose a challenge for Braden Smith. I expect Indiana to try forcing the ball out of Smith’s hands early and then funnel him toward the rim late. Their likely game plan will be to turn him into a scorer rather than a passer and hope he’s not hitting his shots. Braden is a good scorer, but he’s an elite passer, and Indiana has enough length to bother him at the rim.
Of course, every team tries to force Smith into playing a different game, and very few succeed. If I’m Indiana, I’m doing everything I can to get the ball out of his hands on the initial action. That likely means a hard trap off any screen-and-roll. However, trapping Smith isn’t without its risks; Loyer and Cox are both capable of initiating the offense and attacking 4-on-3 situations if Braden can get the ball out early to the wing. If Purdue’s shooters are hot, as they tend to be in Mackey Arena, it could be a looooong night for Coach Woodson and company.
Overall
It’s pretty simple…if Purdue plays its game and shoots a solid percentage from the outside, I don’t think this Indiana team has enough to win. Indiana will need some help from Purdue, likely in the form of Trey Kaufman-Renn getting into foul trouble, combined with poor shooting and rebounding issues. I don’t see that happening, but Indiana is talented enough to pull off an upset if Purdue doesn’t bring at least its B game…maybe even its B+ game.
If Purdue plays like it did against Michigan, there’s a chance Mike Woodson gets fired on the court after the game and I will laugh. Honestly, I could use a good laugh at the moment.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue – 79
Indiana – 67
Drew
Purdue 93
Indiana – 75
I’m going scorched earth on this one. Indiana has been run out of the gym on multiple occasions this season. Louisville dropped an 89-68 anvil on their head and then Gonzaga dropped a piano on them the next night to the tune of 89-73. Nebraska put an 85-68 whooping on them. I’ve already mentioned Iowa and Illinois both giving them work.
If Braden’s going to put up a triple double this season, it seems like this might be a prime opportunity. Boilermakers roll in a game that gets out of hand early in the second half.