Purdue heads to Bloomington to square off against a mercurial Hoosier team with an upset on their mind.
Indiana Roster
Indiana’s Recent Form
I’m reasonably certain Indiana has hit “the worst-case scenario.” They’ve lost eight of their last ten Big Ten games; Mike Woodson is spending more time on Zillow looking for someplace nice to spend his post-Hoosier life, and Dusty Maye just proved that when Mama calls, sometimes you don’t have to pick up the phone.
All that said, this is still a dangerous Indiana team. They’ve only won two in their last ten, but those two were Ohio State and Michigan State on the road. Their late-season swan dive includes a one-point loss to Maryland, a five-point loss to Purdue, a three-point loss to Michigan, and a four-point loss to UCLA. Indiana sets their expectations slightly higher than ‘in most games and pulls a few upsets,’ but as far as 15-11 teams go, they’re probably not as bad as their record indicates. That’s not exactly a compliment and speaks to some of the more significant problems festering in Bloomington, but Purdue isn’t running into a team that’s given up. They’re still trying to win, and if the Boilermakers don’t show up with something close to their A-game, they can pull the upset.
Indiana On Offense
It’s only been four games since we last saw the Hoosiers, but Mike Woodson, or whoever is in charge now, has tinkered with the lineup. Luke Goode has moved from his spot on the bench to starting and playing 30+ minutes a game. His ability to consistently space the floor from the wing has opened up more post-up opportunities for Ballo. Malik Reneau is a talented player, but Ballo needs room to operate. Goode is a 40% 3-point shooter, and Reneau is a 14% 3-point shooter. When Indiana brought Ballo into the program, I thought it was a bad fit with Reneau, and I was right. Individually, Ballo and Reneau are good players, but together, their skill sets clash. They need to occupy the same space to score. They both need space, and neither provide space.
With Goode and Mgbako on the wings, Indiana should have decent spacing. I anticipate Indiana trying to get the ball to Ballo on the low block early and often, and Purdue will have to decide where the help will come from if they go with their traditional auto-double of the post. Helping off Goode isn’t a good idea, especially in this game; he will be juiced up for his final shot at the home-state Boilermakers. That means helping off Mackenzie Mgbako. He’s only shooting 32% on the season, so that’s not a terrible option, but he’s also the type of player with enough talent to snap out of a shooting slump at any moment. He put up 25 points in Mackey, including a three-for-eight performance from deep. One issue I’ve had with Purdue’s defense this season is their inability to identify when someone is hot and move away from the game plan of ‘let them shoot.’ You’re supposed to let them shoot until they prove it, but sometimes, the Boilermakers require significantly more proof than necessary.
In addition to Goode entering the lineup for Reneau, Trey Galloway has moved from shooting guard to point guard, and Anthony Leal has entered the starting lineup for Myles Rice. Indiana suddenly has quite a bit of Indiana high school talent on the court, together with Goode, Galloway, and Leal. Purdue needs to go into this game expecting a fight because the Hoosiers will have some guys on the court who don’t want to drop their final game against Purdue at home. Regardless of how disappointing the rest of the season has been for the Hoosiers, a win over the Boilermakers would make things feel a little better.
Galloway and Leal give the Hoosiers a combined ten seasons of college basketball experience in their starting backcourt. Leal has had such a strange career for the Hoosiers. It seems like he starts off at the far end of the bench every season, and by the end of the year, he’s on the court. It makes you wonder why he’s never started the season in the rotation. At 6’5, he has solid length for a wing, and once a season, he has at least one game where it looks like he’s a solid perimeter threat. Hopefully, he got that game out of his system against Michigan, where he went three-for-three from behind the arc and helped Indiana stay within range of the Wolverines. He’s another guy that Purdue should be able to help off of, with the caveat that he can outplay the scouting report.
Galloway does what Galloway does. He’s a tall guard who handles the ball well and has a penchant for equally making good and bad decisions. Trey Galloway gives, and Trey Galloway takes away. He leads Indiana in assist rate (26%) and turnover rate (26%). It seems like he should be a good outside shooter, but he’s only hitting 31% from deep this season. He shot a bricktastic 26% (26-100) from deep last season. In 2023, he shot 46% from three, hitting 30 out of 65 attempts. I have no idea how someone loses their shooting touch to that extent. He’s another guy that Purdue can help off of, and probably should help off of initially, but who needs to be monitored closely for signs of life. Over the last four games, he’s 3-of-19 from distance, but he’s also drained three three-pointers in a single game on four occasions. He could get hot at any moment or remain ice cold. Such is the enigma that is Trey Galloway.
Moving Leal and Goode into the starting lineup sent Rice and Reneau to the bench, and their ability to score from the second unit is a bit of a boost for the Hoosiers. Rice played well in their upset of Michigan State, putting up 10 points and playing 36 minutes. Against UCLA, he scored 5 points on 2-8 shooting in 24 minutes. I’ll be interested to see how he’s deployed tomorrow. He only played 20 minutes in the game at Mackey, and if I’m Mike Woodson, I’m keeping a big backcourt in the game as much as possible. Still, Rice is a solid bench option.
Oddly enough, Reneau is playing fewer minutes but getting more opportunities when he’s in the game. Did I mention how poor of a fit he is next to Ballo? When Ballo is off the court, Reneau is on the court as the primary post threat, surrounded by shooters. He led Indiana with 19 points in their upset of Michigan State while shooting 8 for 19 and hitting 3-of-5 free throws. If we’re talking sheer post-up ability, Reneau is significantly better than Ballo, in my humble opinion. Purdue has to avoid putting TKR on him in the paint because he has the type of post-game custom-made to get Trey in foul trouble.
In terms of strategy, I see two ways forward for the Hoosiers. First, they can attack Purdue by taking a page directly from Purdue. They can plunk Ballo or Reneau on the low box, enter the ball from the wing, and make the Boilermaker’s defense react. If/when Purdue doubles, they have decent options on the perimeter that can either catch-and-shoot from distance or dive at defenders closing out in rotation. This is essentially the Purdue offense from last season, but not nearly as efficient.
The other option I like better if I’m an Indiana fan (and I can assure you I’m not) is taking a page out of the Wisconsin playbook and using Goode and Mgbako in wing pick-and-roll and pick-and-pops. Specifically, I’d make life miserable for Fletcher Loyer. If the Hoosiers paid me a million dollars to coach this game (I highly encourage them to do so), I would make Matt Painter decide how much he needs Loyer on offense by shining a light directly at him on defense. If Purdue wants to run their myopic pick-and-roll offense and plunk Loyer in the corner, they will have to live with him getting worked on defense without getting enough opportunities to earn it back on the opposite side of the court. When you take Loyer off the court, Smith is the only guy left who can create late in the shot clock and becomes much easier to guard.
Indiana on Defense
Game planning against Purdue shouldn’t be difficult. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn will do their best John Stockton and Karl Malone impersonations, and everyone else will take whatever comes their way when that doesn’t work.
Again, stepping in as the Hoosiers coach for a moment (someone needs to), I’m interested to see if two Purdue players can beat my five players. Let Purdue run the 1-5 pick-and-roll and don’t help. Plaster to CJ Cox and Fletcher Loyer and force Purdue to run offense for them if they want them to contribute. Braden is a great passer, but he’s not a great finisher at the rim. When he gets to the basket, and the other team plasters instead of helping, he runs out of options.
If Purdue wants to post TKR, play him straight up with either Ballo or Reneau and let the chips fall where they may. The more you limit Purdue’s other scoring options; the more pressure falls on the shoulders of Smith and TKR. Loyer, Cox, and Furst score most of their points when the defense is in transition, and they can find easy looks. I’d see what Purdue looks like when those looks aren’t available. If Smith and TKR can combine to score 70+ points, pat them on the back and congratulate them on a great game.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue: 77
Indiana: 73
Confidence: 64%
Drew
Purdue: 67
Indiana: 64
If you’re reading this for gambling advice, you’re making a poor decision, but as you can see, I’m taking the under (I have no idea what the actual line is; I’m taking the KenPom under). It will be a cold day in hell before I pick Indiana to beat Purdue in basketball, but the Hoosiers proved to be a tough matchup for the Boilermakers in Mackey, and things haven’t been going great since then.
I’m predicting a rock fight in this one, with Indiana launching the last rock of the game and shattering the backboard in a three-point loss.