Purdue Basketball: Iowa Preview

With a key player out for the season, how do the Hawkeyes adjust against the Boilermakers?

Iowa Personnel

Owen Freeman Injury

If you look at the starters listed above, you’ll notice the conspicuous absence of Owen Freeman. Iowa’s star center mangled his finger Kendall Stephens style in their last game and is out for the remainder of the season. Freeman is leading the team in points (17), rebounds (7), and blocks (2) and there is no clear replacement on the Iowa roster. I have Riley Mulvey as his replacement in the starting lineup, but I don’t think he’s one of their best five players, and if you look at how minutes were allocated before Freeman went down, it appears that Fran doesn’t think he’s one of their best five either, but he’s the only traditional big with any sort of experience at Iowa.

One frontcourt option is former Belmont transfer Even Brauns. He’s 6’9”, 245 and had a solid season for Belmont in 2023 where he finished in the top 100 nationally in offensive rating and block percentage, but he hasn’t played since a two-minute cameo in a blowout loss to UCLA on January 7th. In total he’s only played eight minutes in 2025, but if nothing else, he might be able to help the Hawkeyes on the glass (he’s also a prime example of “the grass isn’t always greener” as he swapped a key role at Belmont for a spot at the end of the bench for Iowa).

Another option who has seen a little more run this year is Ladji Dembele. At 6’8”, 255, he’s more of a forward than a center, but that should be fine against Purdue occasionally undersized front court. The last time he received significant playing time was an 18-minute showing against New Hampshire where he went for 12 points on 5-5 shooting. His most impressive game was a 14-minute, 11-point explosion against Iowa State where he went 3-3 from deep off the bench. I think you’ll eventually see him take the majority of the minutes, but I’m not sure if that’ll be as a starter or off the bench.

Here’s the problem: losing Freeman could be a death blow to Iowa or it could be an excuse for Fran to shuffle the deck and try something different with a team that’s dropped four of their last five with Freeman in the lineup.

I have no idea what to expect from Iowa. They have had a full week to prepare for this game. I assume Fran has something cooked up in what looks like a must win-game.

Iowa on Offense

I have no idea what Iowa is going to look like tonight. They may try to plug Riley Mulvey into the Freeman role and hope for the best or they could go small and see if they can get Purdue to run with them.

Nationally, they’re ranked 29th in overall tempo and 10th in average possession length. They already want to run, and they’re loaded with 6’7 – 6’8” athletic wings. They’re already a terrible rebounding team with Freeman, their offensive rebounding percentage of 24.7% is 327th in the nation and they’re not much better on the defensive glass, where they’re giving up an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.7% to their opponent. If you’re going to get killed on the boards either way, you may as well feature your best five and hope for the best.

Iowa’s a weird team because they play fast but also shoot a high percentage and don’t turn the ball over. Usually, teams sacrifice a few turnovers in the pursuit of playing at warp speed, but Iowa’s 13.9 turnover percentage is 10th best in the nation. They have guys that can handle the ball 1-4 and share play making duties. They have three players (Pa. Sandfort, Dix, Thelwell) averaging around three assists and point guard Brock Harding averages six assists. It’s hard to clamp down on their offense because they have a pressure release at every position capable of taking over a possession. Locking up Brock Harding does nothing but move the play making responsibilities to the equally adept Pa. Sandfort, Dix, or Thelwell.

I’m concerned Iowa is going to play five-out, spread the floor, and make Purdue guard them individually. The Boilermakers are excellent when it comes to team defense, but still occasionally struggle when teams can pick on a matchup. You saw that against Indiana when Mgbako single handedly kept the Hoosiers in the game by exploiting his mismatch with Loyer in the second half. I think you’re going to see an offense focused on limiting help and exploiting mismatches.

Limiting help is something Iowa is good at, regardless of who is playing center. The Hawkeyes are 12th in the nation in 3-point percentage (38.6) and can put 5-shooters on the court if they so desire. Brock Harding is shooting 39%, Josh Dix is shooting 45%, and Drew Thelwell is shooting 43%. Payton Sandfort is their most prolific shooter in terms of 3-point attempts by a wide margin. He’s hoisted 155 shots from behind the arc but isn’t quite as efficient as his more selective teammates. I’m envisioning an offense with Payton Sandfort as the primary play maker surrounded by 4-shooters. If they put the ball in Payton’s hands, more than usual, look for his brother Pryce to play a more pronounced role in the offense. He’s hitting 39% of his 3’s, which means Iowa can put 4 guys around Payton who flirt with hitting 40% from deep. If Payton Sandfort can get into the heart of the Purdue defense off the bounce, sending help could be dangerous. If the Hawkeyes can get Purdue’s half-court defense into rotation, they always have a knockdown shooter one pass away.

In their 76-75 win over Penn State at home, they hit 11-23 (48%) from deep with four players hitting two or more 3-pointers, and that’s with Josh Dix only going 1-5. If they want to pull an upset over Purdue, I think that’s how they’re going to need to go about it. If Iowa can continue to limit turnovers and hit 3’s, they may be able to overcome their poor rebounding.

Iowa on Defense

Iowa was not a good defensive team before their only rim protector went down to a destroyed digit. Freeman’s 7% block percentage is far and away the best on the team and I don’t see any candidates primed to step up and fill that role. What happens to a bad defense when you take away their best interior defender?

If I’m Iowa, I’m begging Purdue to shoot threes. That may sound strange against a team shooting 37.7% from deep, but Purdue’s shooting has been the dictionary definition streaky recently. In their recent 3-game home stand they sandwiched hitting 9 3’s in a blowout over Michigan with a loss against Ohio State where they only connected on 3 shots from outside the arc. In their too close for comfort win over Indiana, Mike Woodson, one of the best coaches in the country, concocted and gameplan that held Purdue to three, 3-point attempts in Mackey arena and should get a contract extension in my humble opinion.

The formula for Iowa, at least from my comfortable seat, is simple. Go under everything, keep Braden Smith out of the paint at all costs, and see if you can draw Purdue into a 3-point shooting contest on the road. While the Boilermakers occasionally struggle to shoot at home, they’ve had some truly shocking performances on the road, including a 2-12 shooting display against Oregon and a 3-13 dud against Washington. Purdue has hit 3 or more 3 pointers in 1 of their last 5 games after drilling 19 against Nebraska. Purdue looks like a good shooting team on paper, but in reality, it’s been feast or famine and Iowa needs some Boilermaker cooperation to win this game. A hot shooting night from Iowa paired with another dud from Purdue could make this game closer than expected.

If Purdue is able to run its normal offense and attack the paint with TKR, this game won’t be competitive for long. Iowa is 344th in the nation in 2-point defense and Purdue is 28th in the nation in 2-point offense. Keep in mind that 344th ranking is with Freeman anchoring the defense. The Boilermakers have too much for Iowa inside and I expect Iowa to do everything within their power to encourage Purdue to attack elsewhere. I think I’d prefer an open 3-point attempt from C.J. Cox on the road as opposed to TKR doing work on my center in the paint. I expect Iowa to double team TRK immediately on a post touch and hope for a miss. I expect them to play soft on pick-and-rolls and try to entice Smith to beat them with his pull up jumper.

Purdue can beat Iowa shooting from the midrange and outside, but it’s almost a certain Purdue victory if they can get to the basket.

Overall

This is a tricky road game for the Boilermakers. Losing Freeman is tough for Iowa, but they’ve had a week to put together a Purdue specific gameplan. Matt Painter is the king of game preparation, and he’ll have the guys ready to go, but some of the gameplan is going to be a guess because of the Freeman injury. You could see Iowa play an entirely different style of ball tonight.

If Purdue knocks down their open shots and values the basketball, I don’t anticipate a problem, but if I’m Iowa, I’m challenging them to beat me behind the arc because I know they can beat me inside.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue: 82

Iowa: 76

Confidence: 71%

Drew

Purdue: 72

Iowa: 67

I’ve been worried about this game for a minute. Freeman’s absence somewhat assuages that worry, but it still comes down to Purdue’s ability to hit shots. They’ve been playing with fire with their poor shooting, and at some point, a team is going to make them pay. I don’t think it’s going to be Iowa, but they’ve got a puncher’s chance at home.