Purdue Basketball: Michigan Preview

The Boilermakers head to Ann Arbor to face a Wolverine squad looking to avenge their blowout loss in Mackey.

#20 Michigan (18-5, Big 10 – 10-2) vs #7 Purdue (19-5, Big 10 – 11-2)

When: Tuesday, February 11th, 2025

Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan

What Time: 7 PM EST

Television: Peacock

Previous Game: Purdue 91 – Michigan 64

Michigan Roster

Michigan This Season

The Wolverines, with new head coach Dusty May, are neck deep in their Juwan Howard redemption tour after the former Wolverine coach was relieved of duties after last season’s 8-24 campaign. Howard got away with putting hands on a rival assistant coach in a handshake line, but he couldn’t get away with going 2-19 to end the 2024 season.

May arrived in Ann Arbor after an incredible six-season run at Florida Atlantic, including Final 4 appearance in 2023. He found the cupboard completely empty, with the exception Will Tschetter, who was hidden away in that one cabinet above the fridge that no one ever uses.

He brought Vald Goldin with him from FAU, snagged Danny Wolf from Yale, and surrounded them with experienced guards. It worked; they’re currently second in the Big 10 standings. Their best win on the season came against Wisconsin on December 3 and their worst loss (in terms of opponent) came in overtime against Minnesota on January 16. Four of their five losses on the season have been by 3 points or less. Their other loss was a 27-point public evisceration in Mackey.

Michigan on Offense

Did you know you can play two big guys at the same time?!?!?

That’s been the narrative around Michigan all season. Full credit to May for putting his best two players on the court at the same time but as a Purdue fan, I’m familiar with the concept of playing two big guys, more importantly, so is Matt Painter. Still, Goldin and Wolf combine to form a formidable front court duo with Wolf in the playmaker role and Goldin in the finisher role. I was told their 4/5 pick-and-roll was impossible to defend, but in the first meeting, Wolf couldn’t get anything going, finishing the game with four points, three assists, and four turnovers. Goldin was fine, contributing a team high 14 points, but keep in mind, he would have been Purdue’s fourth highest scorer, behind Smith, Loyer, and TKR and only three points clear of CJ Cox.

The above paragraph is the only keystrokes I’m going to waste talking about Purdue’s annihilation of Michigan in the section. It was a “wrong time, wrong team, wrong place” game for the Wolverines and I’m going to assume Dusty May burnt the tape. I’m not sure much, if anything, can be learned from that game.

I’m expecting some angry and focused Wolverines tomorrow night. They’ve bounced back after the Purdue loss to run off four-straight wins (all coming by five points or less) but have been feasting on Big 10 bottom feeders like Indiana. In their win over the Hoosiers in mausoleum known as Assembly Hall, Wolf led the team with 20 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, and was backed up by 18 points from both Tre Donaldson and Vlad Goldin. In fact, Wolf, Goldin, and point guard Tre Donaldson are Michigan’s version of the Boilermakers ‘Big 3.’ Other guys might score, but Wolf, Goldin, and Donaldson have to score.

In terms of style of play, Michigan plays at the 55th fastest overall tempo in the nation and only 17 teams’ average shorter offensive possessions. Playing at that pace with two seven footers on the court at the same play is impressive, and means the Wolverines tend to find a shot either in transition or with their first action. Purdue will need to be cognizant of their desire to push the pace, especially at home, and make a concerted effort to get back on defense and lock in early. The longer you make Michigan hold the ball, the better chance you have to turn them over.

Michigan does everything well on offense other than taking care of the basketball. They’re 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, fifth in 2-point shooting percentage, and 25th is assists-to-field goals made. They’re 332nd in turnovers, failing to offer an attempt at the basket in 20% of their possessions. They pull a few possessions back with their 34% offensive rebounding percentage. Michigan needs to play fast in order to get up enough shots to win considering their turnover issues. In the past, that wouldn’t be an issue for the Wolverines, because Purdue would steadfastly refuse to accept turnovers, much less force them, but not this season; they’re up to 70th in the nation in turnover percentage on defense after spending the last decade in the 330’s. Braden leads the way with the nation’s 25th-best steal percentage and is joined in the top 500 by chaos merchant Caleb Furst.

Look for the opportunistic Boilermakers to poke and prod at the ball from all angles when Danny Wolf tries to boss the game from the top of the key with the pick-and-roll. Caleb Furst will be key in this one. His ability to move his feet on the perimeter at 6’10”, 235 makes Purdue a tough matchup for Michigan. They count on Wolf being able to outmaneuver his counterpart on the perimeter and Furst is one of the best big men in the conference at sliding his feet and staying in front. The 4/5 pick-and-roll is a staple for Michigan, but Furst and TKR are two of the more mobile big front courts in college basketball. If Purdue’s front court can contain the big pick and roll, the guards can strip the ball. I like it when the other team’s strength on offense dovetails with Purdue’s strength on defense.

My biggest concern is Michigan shooting the eyes out of the bucket at home. Point guard Tre Donaldson leads the Wolverines in both 3-point shooting volume with 109 attempts and is currently hitting 41% of them. Part time starting wing Nimari Burnett is slightly behind in volume with 103 attempts and slightly ahead in accuracy at 43%. One thing the Dusty May does well as a coach is his ability to get the right guys to take the right shots. I’ve written a bunch of previews this season where the biggest volume 3-point shooter on a team is hitting 32% and some other dude with half the attempts is hitting 45%. Michigan’s best two shooters are their two most prolific shooters.

I also want to mention 6’10” reserve sophomore forward Sam Walters. He’s Michigan’s 3rd most prolific 3-point shooter with 71 attempts and is hitting a more than respectable 37%. The Boilermakers will need to recognize that when Walters’s is in the game, the 4/5 pick-and-roll turns into the 4/5 pick and pop and adjust accordingly. If Walters is left open on the perimeter, he can become the auxiliary scoring threat needed to complement their ‘big 3.’

I like how Purdue matches up against Michigan, but I also expect to see the best version of this Michigan team tomorrow night. Purdue will need to be at their best on defense to bring home a road victory.

Michigan on Defense

I went back to look at Michigan’s defensive strategy from the first game, but it turns out they didn’t play any. Purdue went 9-of-24 from deep (38%), and a good number of those looks were wide open off simple kickbacks from Braden. Raleigh Burgess was 2-for-2 from deep on looks that I would be upset missing in a pick-up game. Fletcher Loyer came out gunning and hit 5-of-10 3’s, many coming off simple pin-down screens that allowed Loyer to get his shoulders turned and feet set before launching. When Purdue is shooting well, and specifically, when Loyer is both shooting and shooting well (he usually shoots well, but sometimes he doesn’t shoot), they’re one of the best teams in the nation. When they’re not shooting, or not shooting well, Purdue is still one of the best teams in the nation, but things get significantly more complicated.

In theory, Michigan’s defense is their calling card, but I’d like to point out that part of the Wolverines comeback season is directly linked to their, shall we say generous, schedule. The Wolverines have three wins and three losses against teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50. For perspective, Purdue has six wins and four losses against teams ranked in the KenPom top 50. Michigan is ranked 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency, but against good teams, their defense isn’t anywhere close to what the numbers portray. Looking at conference games, Michigan is seventh in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, still decent, but not nearly as dominant as their national ranking suggests. Looking at the defense more granularly; they’re 6th in the conference in 3-point defense, allowing teams to shoot 32% from behind the arc and 4th in 2-point defense, giving up 49% from inside the arc.

In the first game, Purdue’s high pick and roll was unstoppable. Remember how teams wanted to make Edey move his feet on the perimeter to defend the 1/5 pick and roll? Now Purdue gets to do that to someone else. The twin towers look from Dusty May is a somewhat novel approach in 2025, but Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman punished them for having two slow footed defenders on the court at the same time. Michigan was always in rotation and Purdue was only an extra pass away from a wide open 3 on most possessions.

Despite Michigan collapsing down in an attempt to clog up the pick-and-roll, Purdue shot an incendiary 25-of-38 from two, mainly because Michigan wants to defend at the rim and neither Braden nor Trey needs to get all the way to the rim to score. Braden jarred multiple mid-range jumpers and Trey’s floater off the short roll was unstoppable. I think Michigan will try the same defense in this game and hope for better result. That’s a bad idea, because Purdue’s shooting away from home has been suspect on occasion but could get them blown out in a hurry if Purdue gets hot like they did in the first ten minutes of the game in Mackey. At the same time, if Braden and TRK do manage to get their pick and roll and midrange game cooking, the guards are going to find open looks on the perimeter. It’s going to be a make / miss sort of game for the Boilermakers. If the open shots are dropping, Purdue wins, if they’re not, this thing is going to be a fight until the final whistle.

X-Factor: Rebounding and Turnovers = Possessions

While Purdue isn’t a great rebounding team, their conference numbers are significantly better than their overall numbers, after the addition of Caleb Furst to the lineup. They can, however, still be suspect on the defensive glass. One of the weird things about Michigan is they’re barely an average rebounding team despite having the sixth tallest lineup in college basketball. This is a game Purdue needs to either win or come close to tying on the glass. Michigan needs possessions, and Purdue can limit those by focusing their energy on cleaning up misses on both sides of the court.

The one area where Michigan is unequivocally bad is turnovers:

• Their offense commits the most turnovers in the Big Ten.
• Their defense forces the second fewest turnovers in the conference.

If Purdue ties or wins the rebounding battle and the turnover trends for both teams continue (Purdue is fourth in the Big Ten in offensive turnover percentage and 1st in defensive turnover percentage) the Wolverines will have to push the tempo to get up enough shots to win the game. The problem with pushing the tempo is it tends to lead to more turnovers. Purdue picked off multiple Michigan outlet passes in the first game, which helped build their early lead.

I don’t expect the Wolverines to be nearly as sloppy at home, but Michigan’s marginal rebounding paired with their turnover issues could once again be their undoing against the Boilermakers.