The Boilermakers look to end their first losing streak of the season on the road against the Spartans.
#7 Purdue (19-7, Big Ten, 11-4) vs #11 Michigan State (20-5, Big Ten, 11-3)
Michigan State Roster
Michigan State This Season
In terms of on-paper talent, Michigan State is the class of the Big Ten this season, and it’s not particularly close. The Spartans have guys like Xavier Booker coming off the bench who would start for pretty much every other Big Ten team. As I researched this preview, it was hard no to covet Michigan State’s roster and recruiting.
That talent has Tom Izzo back on top of the Big Ten. The Spartans went 9-2 in the preseason with a key win over then #12 North Carolina (that hasn’t aged well), and losses to Kansas and Memphis. I was surprised by how soft Michigan State scheduled this season. Outside of Kansas, they didn’t play a scheduled game against anyone in the top 25. They only played North Carolina because they ran into them in the third round of the Maui Invitational. In fact, Michigan State has only played against three teams who were ranked when they played this season:
Kansas
North Carolina
Illinois
Purdue has played nine ranked teams this season. That’s to say, don’t be too impressed with their overall 20-5 record, because the preseason portion of their schedule was, at best, unimpressive.
Conference play hasn’t been much different. They’re 11-3 but have only played one game against a team in the current top five of the Big Ten, and that was a road loss to UCLA. Not to be unfair, the only reason Illinois isn’t a top five team in the Big Ten is their two losses to Michigan State, but thus far, Sparty has missed Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin.
This game is their first in a brutal stretch run to wrap up Big Ten play. They get Purdue, Michigan (x2), Maryland, and Wisconsin over their next six games. If you want to know how good Michigan State really is, check back at the start of March. Their next three games against the Boilermakers, Wolverines, and Terrapins (with Michigan and Maryland on the road) should tell the story. They’re either a young, talented team with an inflated record because of a weak schedule or they’re the class of the Big Ten.
You’ll know the answer after their March 2 home game against Wisconsin.
Michigan State on Offense
The Spartans a have weird profile for a team playing college basketball in 2025. They’re one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation, connection on only 29% of their attempts (354). Fortunately, they don’t take many, averaging a three-point attempt every 32 shots (332). If you’re wondering how a team that can’t and won’t shoot from the perimeter is currently 20-5; they’re elite at most everything else.
Tom Izzo went back to his roots of attacking the basket and dominating the glass when he assembled this team. After finishing last season 144th in offensive rebounding percentage, they currently sit 15th, improving from 30% in 2023-’24 to 37% this season. Starting power forward Jaxon Kohler has been especially good at hitting the glass; his offensive rebounding percentage of 16.4 is 14th in the nation. If Purdue has any inclination of beating the Spartans at home, it starts on the glass. They can’t give Michigan State multiple bites of the apple on every possession, otherwise they’re going to run out of apples before the end of the game.
The other place Michigan State excels is ball movement. Freshman point guard Jeremy Fears has a 42% assist rate, which is fourth best in the nation (Braden Smith is first in the nation at 45%), but unlike Smith, Fears isn’t the only player capable of running the offense. Tre Holloman’s assist rate of 30.2 is good for 74th in the nation. The Spartans have a two-headed monster at point guard, they can split the court and run a mirrored offense with Fears on one half and Holloman on the other. If the defense stuffs a Fears drive, Holloman can immediately reset the offense and attack. When Braden gets stuffed, Purdue has to wait until he gets the ball back, because Loyer and Cox aren’t that type of player makers.
Of course, you don’t get two players in the top 100 nationally in assist rate without having a team full of guys capable of finishing off those assists; that’s where Akins, Kohler, Richardson, and Carr come into play. Akins leads Michigan State in two-point field goals attempted (167) and made, and three-point field goals attempted (124) and made (36). I was shocked to see the Spartans’ most prolific three-point shooter hitting just 29% of his attempts, but it hasn’t slowed him down. I guess you can chuck it from deep if you’ve got a bunch of guys fighting it out under the basket for the rebound. When the Spartans need a bucket, or get deep into the shot clock, Akins tends to be the guy they lean on most. Purdue needs to keep that in mind and not help off of the guy Michigan State wants to have the ball late in the clock.
Kohler is second on the team in two-point attempts (118), with most of those coming from the “dunker” spot in Michigan State’s offense (the spot on the opposite side of the lane to the pick and roll). He’s assertive around the basket and uses his 250-pound frame to ward off defenders. If a defense over-rotates and leaves the dunker spot unguarded or covered by a smaller player, it’s almost certain death. That’s an invitation for the Spartans to get something up on the rim because Kohler is probably going to come down with the board. In some ways, it’s easy to play guard in this Spartan offense because getting a shot on the rim, even if it doesn’t go in the bucket, can still lead to points.
If you’re looking for dynamic wing finishers, look no further the Coen Carr and Jase Richardson. One (or both) will put someone on a poster tomorrow night (my money is on Caleb because he lacks the self-preservation gene that makes other defender get out of the way). I haven’t watched every team, but if there is a more explosive dunker in college basketball than Carr, I haven’t seen him. At 6’5”, he has the type of elite hangtime and explosiveness that NBA teams salivate over. If he had any semblance of an outside game, he would already be in the NBA, but he’s only attempted nine, three-pointers all season.
Jase Richardson (son of Spartan great Jason) is just starting his career in East Lansing but has “future pro” written all over him. Like Carr, he’s an elite finisher at the rim, but unlike Carr, has an outside game to compliment his rim rattling dunks. Richardson would rather finish at the rim than launch a three, but he has hit 22 of his 58 attempts from deep on the season, putting him at 38%. He’s not a shooter like Loyer, but he’s closer to shooting like Loyer than Loyer is to dunking like him (if that makes sense).
Overall, nothing Michigan State does is particularly complex. They want to get everything moving toward the basket and they want multiple opportunities to score. One of the reasons they’re so effective on the offensive glass is they’re not trying to rebound a bunch of threes caroming off the rim at 100 miles an hour. They get the ball as close to the basket as possible, get it up on the rim, and it either goes in the first time, or someone else puts it in on the second, or sometimes third, attempt. Any shot that gives them an opportunity on the offense glass is a good shot.
Michigan State on Defense
Teams loaded with high-level athletes and deep benches tend to play tough defense. Throw in Tom Izzo’s ability to ‘work’ (read: intimidate) the Big Ten refs and you’d better bring your big-boy pants when you play Michigan State in the Breslin Center.
Did Jaxon Kohler just procure a snow shovel from someone in the crowd to crack TKR across the back?
If the refs don’t call it, it didn’t happen, even if Kohler is standing over TKR, shovel in hand. Matt Painter may give the ref a terse word or two before heading out help drag Trey off, but if Purdue gets caught up in what doesn’t get called, it’s going to be a loooong game.
The problem with Michigan State is they can play as physically as they want, and it doesn’t particularly matter. Even if the refs do manage to find their whistle tomorrow night, the Spartans are deep enough to bring former five-star center Xavier Booker off the bench and still have former starting center Carson Cooper in reserve. Meanwhile Purdue has a tough time making things work on when Caleb Furst is inevitably saddled with foul trouble. I hope TKR is well-rested because he’s going to get beat on from the moment he steps onto the court, until he makes it to the locker room. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Spartans give up a couple hard fouls before tip-off to make sure he doesn’t get hot in the layup line.
Michigan State has the depth and desire to play with reckless abandon down low. They’re also eighth in the nation in three-point defense, allowing team to shoot a paltry 29% from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Purdue has struggled with shooting away from home. On a somewhat positive note, the Boilermakers shot the ball somewhat respectably (7-20, 35%) from behind the arc in their last road game against Michigan.
The Spartans have the length inside and the athletes on the perimeter to play straight up and staying out of constant rotation. Purdue, on the other hand, has yet to contain a dribble drive and would leave Steph Curry wide open to help down on a dead-end drive by a power forward.
What gives me some hope is Indiana recently finding a way to win at the Breslin Center despite only putting up 71 points. Malik Reneau had one of his best games of the season, and TKR is a better version of Reneau on offense. In their loss to UCLA, 6’9”, 230-pound Tyler Bilodeau was the Bruins MVP, and TKR is better than Bilodeau as well. I anticipate Izzo will focus on taking away TKR and try to force the rest of the Boilermakers to beat them. Look for them to try and take away the roll, and either force Braden away from the basket with a trap or make him finish over their athletes at the rim.
Overall
This is going to be a war, and the Spartans have a bigger army. Purdue is going to have to play hard, but more importantly, they need to play smart to pull off this road upset. Michigan State is good, but they’re not bulletproof; any team that can drop a home game to Indiana in February is capable of dropping a home game to Purdue in February.
The Hoosiers won by hitting the Spartans with a 22-9 run in the second half of the first half (KenPom breaks the game into four quarters and Indiana smoked Michigan State in the second quarter) and then held on for dear life, outscoring Sparty by a single point in the fourth quarter (second half of the second half?) to secure a 71-67 victory.
Michigan State’s one major flaw is the lack of a true offensive “star”. When the going gets tough, they have “the guy” who can go and get them easy points. They rely on a balanced attack and tend to spread the wealth, sometimes to their own detriment. Purdue has struggled stopping “the guy” in a few games this year, and Akins is the closest Michigan State has to that, but he’s not close to the level of John Tonje. The Spartans win by grinding you into the court with their depth, not necessarily their individual greatness.
If Purdue can keep this thing close, Braden might have a chance to win it at the end, but it’ll likely require a cumulative 60+ points from the Boilermakers’ ‘Big 3’ to get it done. The freshmen haven’t shown up on the road and I trust Colvin and Heide about as much as a trust gas station sushi in Phoenix on a July day. Caleb might be Purdue’s fourth option on the road, and as much as I enjoy watching Furst play, that’s not ideal. Someone unexpected needs to provide Purdue with some points on Tuesday night, or Painter needs to pull a Norman Dale and send Jayce up a ladder to show CJ Cox that the rims in the Breslin Center are the same height as the rims in Mackey.
It’s going to take Purdue’s best road game of the season to pull the upset in this one.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue – 73
Michigan State – 75
Drew
Purdue – 65
Michigan State – 72
I don’t trust Purdue’s shooting on the road. I also don’t trust this team’s toughness; you can rattle them with physical play. Michigan State is going to come out ultra-physical down low and Trey will commit at least two stupid frustration fouls when the whistle doesn’t go his way. If he gets into foul trouble, Purdue can’t compete on the glass, and he’s been in foul trouble more often than not recently. Purdue needs to get right, and that’s a hard thing to accomplish against Michigan State in the Breslin Center.
I hope I’m wrong.