Purdue Basketball: Nebraska Preview

The Boilermakers take on the Cornhuskers in 30 minutes!

My apologies for the last minute, abridged Nebraska preview. We’ll been dealing with (gasp) snow and ice for the last couple days and the power and internet have been questionable at best because of all the downed tree limbs.

Sometimes I wonder what happens to the recruiting budget at a place like Nebraska that features exactly 1 home grown recruit (the head coaches’ son) in the lineup. Nebraskeball lost Keisei Tominaga and Rienk Mast from last season’s squad but filled in with Washington transfer Braxton Meah and Utah point guard Rollie Worster. Currently sitting at 12-3 on the season and ranked 33rd in KenPom, early returns from the newly constituted Cornhuskers have been promising.

The isn’t the Nebraska team you’re familiar with, however. Last season they wanted to launch and endless barrage of 3’s and hope for the best. They were 33rd in the nation in 3 pointers attempted / field goals attempted, with 44% of their shots coming from behind the arc. This season they’re 204th in the nation with 38% of their shots coming from 3-point land.

That doesn’t mean they can’t shoot. Their top offensive player, Brice Williams is hitting 41% from behind the arc and their designated gunner off the bench, Wisconsin transfer Connor Essegian is hitting 40%. Leave them alone behind the 3-point line at your own peril, but after those two, the 3rd best shooter receiving regular minutes is Juwan Gray at 33%. Cutting back on the 3-point shooting has removed some variance from their game. Last season it was feast-or-famine for Nebraska, a team capable of winning or losing any game on their schedule, depending on their shooting on any given night.

Instead of outside shooting, this vintage of Nebraskeball leans heavily on the positional size advantage they have at pretty much every spot on their roster. This is somewhat concerning considering Purdue’s performance against teams capable of putting size on the perimeter against Purdue’s more skilled guards. Now I’m going to remember that tip is rapidly approaching and give you the quick-and-dirty version of what Purdue needs to do today to secure a victory.

Defend Brice Williams and Juwan Gary

Williams is option 1, 2, and 3 for the Huskers. The smooth senior wing has stepped up and has become a problem on offense. He went bananas on Indiana in their 85-68 destruction of the Hoosiers, putting up a 30-6-5 line on 10-15 shooting, including going 2-3 from deep, and hitting 8 of 11 from the stripe. In their upset win over UCLA, Williams put up a team high 16 points, with all but 5 coming from his 11-12 performance from the foul line. Williams is 67th in the nation if fouls drawn/40 minutes and is hitting 91% of his foul shots.

He gets to the line by putting the ball on the court, getting to the rim, and using his 6’7” frame to get into rim defenders before they’re ready. He reminds me a little of Paul George because it only takes him 2-dribbles to get from the top of the key to the rim. All it takes is a defender slightly out of position for him to get to the rim before the rest of the defense can react, which ends up with Wiliams drawing a bunch of reach in and blocking fouls from late defenders.

If Purdue can slow down Williams and hold him under his 19 points a game, Nebraska will struggle to score enough to beat Purdue on the road. That, of course, is easier said than done, but I like Purdue’s ability to match size with size; having both Colvin and Heide available to help out on the wing.

That brings me to Juwan Gary, Nebraska’s second scoring option. Gary is one of those infectious energy, all-action players that gets his points wherever he can find them. Like Williams, he’s good at getting to the line where he hits 75% of his attempts, he does some damage from behind the arc, shooting 33%, and is the most likely person on the floor to make you say, “that was ugly, but somehow effective.” Purdue has the guys to guard Gary, but they’re going to have to match his energy.

Hit Your 3’s

Nebraska has lost 3 games this season, all to teams inside the KenPom top 50 (St. Mary’s, Michigan St., Iowa). The Huskers have a ton of length on their roster and make things extremely difficult to score in the paint. The three teams that have knocked them off have done so via the 3-pointer. Nebraska is only allowing teams to shoot 34% on the season, but St. Mary’s (11-23 – 48%), Michigan St. (9-23 – 39%) and Iowa (17-35 – 49%) all significantly outperformed that metric.

That’s what Purdue needs to do today. I’m specifically looking for Fletcher Loyer to get shots up from deep. Iowa’s Josh Dix went 7-10 from behind the arc and Payton Sandfort went 6-10. You can’t make that many 3’s if you don’t attempt them. Braden is going to get his, but Fletcher needs to fire away early and often to help offset Nebraska’s ability to defend the paint. This is very much a drive and dish game for Braden and I expect to see him off the ball a good bit more than usual. One way to handle big guards trying to crowd him is to get him on the move without the ball and let him create space with his quickness that way. If he stands at the top of the key and pounds the ball into the court waiting for a succession of ball screens, it could be a long day. Nebraska has the same size on the perimeter as Marquette and Penn State and I anticipate them using it to trap Smith and force him away from the basket.

If Purdue finds a way to handle Nebraska blitzing Smith on the Pick-and-Roll, there will be opportunities for open shots. If they decide the best thing to do is continually reset their offense and attempt to run everything from 5-feet behind the 3-point line, it’s going to be a long afternoon.

Let’s see if the Boilermakers have learned their lesson from some of their early season losses.

Prediction

KenPom: Purdue 74 – Nebraska 67

74% Confidence

Drew: Purdue 71 – Nebraska 69

Are you picking a team to come into Mackey Arena and beat Purdue? If you are, you’re making a mistake. Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation at defending their home court. Shooting, in particular, has been significantly better in the friendly confines of the most organically electric venue in college basketball.

Nebraska will ask some difficult questions, but Purdue pulls it out down the stretch with timely shooting.