The Boilermakers welcome the Wildcats to Mackey area for an early season show down.
If you’re looking for the advanced stats, Garrett already covered them here.
I wish I had the Spider-Man and Doppelganger Spider-Man pointing-at-each-other meme available because Chris Collins is clearly Doppelganger Matt Painter when it comes to assembling a squad. It was nice to pull up a roster and recognize almost every player. In fact, not only do I recognize most of the key Northwestern players, but I’ve watched them grow up on the court over the last few seasons. The core of this Northwestern team has played together for 3+ seasons. Sure, Boo Buie is retired from college basketball after a long and fruitful career that seemingly stretched back to the end of the Gene Keady era, but his former supporting cast is stepping up to fill his Converse All-Stars.
Lafayette, Indiana native Brooks Barnhizer, in particular, has not only stepped up to fill Boo’s PF Flyers, he’s in the early conversation for Big 10 and National Player of the Year after an incendiary start. He was good last season, playing Robin to Buie’s Batman, but stepping into the spotlight has only improved his game. We’re going to go ahead and say he’s averaging a 20/10 double-double even though he’s technically 0.4 rebounds off the pace.
His game reminds me of former Illinois point guard Marcus Domask, which says a good bit because, nominally, Barnhizer plays the 4 for the Wildcats. Don’t look for him down on the block posting up though. In the games I’ve watched, he’s the catalyst of the offense. When he’s playing off the ball, he can stretch the floor like a traditional wing. He’s not a great 3-point shooter, but at 34%, he’s respectable enough to deserve attention. He’s best, however, on the ball, running the high pick-and-roll or playing booty ball in an iso as the lead guard.
Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach is listed as the point guard, and he does run the point a good bit, but when Barnhizer has the ball in his hands, good things happen for the Wildcats. Coach Painter switched up his lineup against Minnesota, and based on what he said at his mid-week press conference, C.J. Cox and Caleb Furst will remain in the starting lineup against the Wildcats. That raises the biggest question of the game: Who guards Brooks Barnhizer?
Cox is the obvious choice, but Northwestern is going to clear out a side and play bully ball every time the 6’3” freshman is guarding the 6’6” senior. No one has been successful in stopping Brooks, and as much as I love C.J. Cox, I don’t see him as the player who breaks that trend. Instead, I like Furst on Barnhizer, at least initially. The Wildcats want to put you in a bind. Put a big guy on Barnhizer and they put the ball in his hands up top and pick-and-roll you to death. Put a guard on him, and they go to their iso game where they split the court in half from right to left and clear out a side for him to work. Furst’s ability to move his feet on the perimeter could pay huge dividends in this game. He takes away bully ball with his size, and he may be one of the best perimeter big-man defenders in the nation (a bold statement, I know) in terms of moving his feet. Northwestern’s iso game scares me more than their ability to hurt Purdue with the high pick-and-roll, and Furst may be uniquely qualified to stop the iso game while not getting totally blown out guarding the pick and roll.
Putting Furst on Barnhizer also gives them a strange look to deal with when they run their high pick and roll. Instead of Nicholson screening a guard, he’s screening a big guy. TKR can switch out to contain the Barnhizer dribble, or Furst can fight through and contest his shots at the rim. If they get the switch and want to rescreen with Nicholson (which they like as a second action when the iso isn’t available), Purdue can switch it again with same defenders and not give up much. I’m not sure it will work, I’m not sure if Painter will try it, but nothing else has worked this season, and I’d be interested in the Boilermakers trying something different. Granted, there is a reason I’m typing this up right now and Matt Painter is going through pre-game notes with the team in the locker room.
Speaking of the iso game, Barnhizer isn’t the only player they utilize. 6’7” junior forward Nick Martinelli is also tough to guard when Northwestern clears out a side and lets him work. While Barnhizer is in the running for Big 10 Player of the Year and National Player of the Year, Martinelli has a chokehold on the Big 10’s Most Improved Player right now. Last season, he averaged 9 points and 4 rebounds while shooting 27% from deep. This season, he’s averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, and is shooting 45% from deep. In their overtime win against Illinois on December 6th, he went off for 27 points on 11/20 shooting, going 9/16 from inside the arc and 2/4 from outside. The good news for Purdue is he’s been in a bit of a shooting slump, going 1/9 in his last three outings, including 0/3 in their loss to Penn State three days ago.
Northwestern is hard to guard because Barnhizer and Martinelli have such similar games. They’re both capable of running pick-and-roll, and they can both score in the paint on clear-outs. Most teams can guard one or the other but guarding both of them is a chore, and they tend to feed off one another. When you think you’ve got one of them under control, the other one picks up the slack, and they do most of their damage around the rim. They play a unique, awkward style of ball that forces teams to make one crucial decision: Do you double the post when Barnhizer or Martinelli back your guy down, or do you play it straight up and hope your guy makes a play?
Matt Painter’s default over the years is doubling the post. While that can stop bully ball, it opens up the rest of their offense. They want you to double-team the post and play in rotation. While they don’t shoot many threes (346th in the nation in 3-point attempts per field goal attempted and 330th in percentage of their points from 3-pointers), they have capable shooters all over the court. They don’t take many threes, but the ones they do take tend to drop. Martinelli is their best at 45%, but Barnhizer is a respectable 34% and point guard Jalen Leach is hitting at 34%. That brings me to senior guard Ty Berry, who may be the deciding factor in this game.
My guess is Fletcher Loyer matches up with Ty Berry all game. You might see Braden on him occasionally, but he seems more suited to guarding the quicker Leach. Fletcher needs to win this matchup either by shutting Berry down with his defense or outshooting him on offense. Whoever’s Big 3 shows up the biggest has a distinct advantage in this one, although I like Purdue’s supporting cast better at home.
Here’s the thing: I fully expect Northwestern to put up some points today. They’re too skilled on offense and ask several questions that I don’t think Purdue can answer. The way forward for the Boilermakers today is putting up 80+ points themselves. Both Iowa and Penn State hit 80 and knocked off Northwestern, it’s in Purdue’s best interest to attempt the same thing.
Overall
On one hand, this is a tough match-up for Purdue.
On the other hand, Northwestern has played 3 true road games and are 0-3 in those games.
They’ve played 5 games against teams in KenPom’s top 100 and are 2-6 in those games (and their win over UNLV on a neutral floor barely makes the cut). The Wildcats are consistent. That’s what wins games against inconsistent teams, but when they go up against teams with top-level talent, they’ve lost more than they’ve won. Purdue’s currently ranked 21st by KenPom, that makes them Northwestern’s second highest ranked game of the season thus far. Meanwhile Purdue has played 9 games against teams in the KenPom top 100 and are 5-5, including wins over #9 Alabama and #26 Maryland. That bodes well for the home-standing Boilermakers and that’s why, despite the doom and gloom in the above preview, I like them in this game. If this game was being played in Evanston, I’d take the Wildcats, but Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation at home, and Northwestern has struggled on the road.
Disclaimer
I’d like to remind everyone that this is simply my opinion, and I’m just a dude typing this in his bathrobe.
Prediction
KenPom: Purdue – 73, Northwestern – 66
(Confidence: 74%)
Drew: Purdue – 84, Northwestern – 79
Pick against Purdue when they’re playing in the friendly confines of Mackey Arena at your own peril. This game is going to be a fight from start to finish, and the Boilermakers don’t tend to lose fights in Mackey.
While Northwestern is perfectly capable of winning this game, I’d be surprised if they pull of the road upset. Purdue needs this win, and I think they get the job done today.