Purdue Basketball: Ohio State Preview

While the rest of the country is in the deep freeze, the Boilermakers battle the Buckeyes tonight in Mackey.

Roster

Injury Report

Devin Royal did not play in Ohio State’s previous game against Indiana on 1/17 because of a sprained wrist. As of now, I don’t see any updates regarding his availability tonight. If he doesn’t play, Evan Mahaffey will take his place in the starting lineup.

Former starting guard Meechie Johnson remains out of action indefinitely as well.

That’s two potential starters out of action for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State on Offense

The Buckeyes are led by do-everything guard Bruce Thornton. You may remember Bruce from last season when he put up 22 points against Purdue in their upset loss to Ohio State. What makes Thornton unique is his playing strength as a point guard. He’s 215 pounds and doesn’t hesitate to use his rear end to back down smaller defenders. He is almost impossible to stop when he gets his shoulders turned on a pick-and-roll and heads to the rim. He draws a team high 5 fouls / 40 minutes and will finish through contact if you don’t tie up the ball. Giving him a little bump doesn’t do much to knock him off balance. If you’re going to foul him, you need to foul him and keep him from getting the ball above his head. That’s easier said than done with someone as determined to get to the rim as Thornton.

Thornton was great last season, making 3rd Team All-Big Ten, but he’s even better this season after sharpening up his shooting. He shot a mediocre 33% from deep last season but has bumped that all the way up to 41% in ‘24-’25. This is clearly a job for C.J. Cox, at least to start the game. Purdue’s newly minted lockdown perimeter defender has the size (6’3”, 200 pounds) and mentality to battle with Thornton all night. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gicarri Harris also gets a crack at Thornton off the bench. The freshman is coming around and gives the Boilermakers another physical guard on the perimeter. Regardless, the main objective when playing Ohio State is to keep Thornton out of the paint by any means necessary. If that means giving up an occasional three because the Purdue defender is playing him to drive, so be it.

The good news for Purdue is that the two guys slated to join Thornton in the backcourt this season appear to both be out of action. That means freshman guard John Mobley and Penn State transfer Evan Mahaffey both enter the starting lineup. Not only does that hurt the starting lineup, but it also decimates the Ohio State bench. Their best two scoring options off the bench are now starting. That’s something Purdue fixed when Heide and Colvin went back to the bench a couple of games ago. Sometimes balancing out the bench rotation is just as important as the starting lineup, and Jake Diebler is having to make it up on the fly with two key starters out of action.

That doesn’t mean the guys replacing Royal and Johnson in the starting lineup aren’t starting-caliber players. Freshman John Mobley is one of the most accurate three-point shooters in the Big Ten; currently shooting 42% from deep on 42-of-100 shooting. He’s often paired with Thornton on the strong side of the floor, giving him an easy kick-out option if the defense collapses on a drive. Mobley has a quick trigger and no conscience when it comes to shooting from deep. Purdue will need to limit the amount of help coming from the strong-side wing because Mobley will make you pay if you give him a glimpse at the rim.

While Devin Royal is more of a scoring threat, Mahaffey provides Ohio State with more of a do-everything “glue guy” on the wing. He’s not much of a shooter (in fact, he’s only attempted two shots from deep all season) but he’s tough on the offensive glass, often swooping in from the weak side to grab a board if no one puts a body on him. Look for Purdue to play off of Mahaffey unless he proves he’s willing to shoot from deep and hope they can find him when it comes time to rebound the ball. He’s the type of player who mainly scores on whatever scraps he can find around the basket.

The frontcourt for Ohio State is interesting. They’re basically Purdue before Heide was replaced by Furst in the starting lineup. Micah Parrish and Evan Mahaffey are both 6’6” wings that split time playing the 4. Starting center Sean Stewart isn’t exactly a giant (in terms of college basketball, not the general population) at 6’9”, 230 pounds either. The former five-star recruit and Duke transfer has yet to live up to his reputation as a high-level defender, rebounder, and rim finisher. He reminds me of a less skilled, more athletic version of TKR. That should be a fun matchup to watch all game as two undersized, burly PF/C tweeners battle for low-post dominance.

As far as the bench goes, with Mahaffey and Mobley in the starting lineup, fifth-year journeyman Ques Glover is the only scoring option off the bench. I covered Glover after he transferred from Samford, where he once averaged 19 points a game, to Kansas State, where he came in injured and stayed injured, never taking the floor for the Wildcats. When he’s on, he’s a crafty point guard with a variety of floaters and runners he utilizes to score in the paint. He’s not much of a shooter and is better with the ball in his hands, which limits his playing time with Thornton filling a similar role.

The frontcourt bench players, at this point in their careers, are basic replacement-level big guys who take up space on the interior, block a few shots, and occasionally score on putbacks and dunks. If Ohio State gets in foul trouble, scoring options become an issue, and the pressure on Thornton to do everything on his own increases significantly (assuming he’s not the one in foul trouble; he’s good at avoiding it). Look for Purdue to try and wear down the suddenly shorthanded Buckeyes with their depth on the wings and in the post.

Ohio State on Defense

Ohio State is 16th in the nation when it comes to defending the three, allowing their opponents to shoot a measly 29% from behind the arc. In their last three games (all narrow losses), Indiana shot 30% (6-of-20) from three, Wisconsin shot 22% (5-of-22), and Oregon hit 36% (9-of-25) of their attempts from range.

Purdue is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, especially when they’re playing in the friendly confines of Mackey Arena.

If the Boilermakers shoot anywhere close to their season average, it’s going to be hard for Ohio State to score enough points to win. Their ability to limit outside shooting is the only reason they’ve been competitive in their last three games, and they achieve this with solid defensive rotations.

In their loss to Indiana last time out, they started the game trying to single-cover Ballo, but when that didn’t work, they brought the double and played in rotation. I anticipate Diebler employing the same strategy on TKR when he’s in the paint. Look for them to let Stewart try to play him straight up, with a late dig down from a guard when he puts the ball on the floor. If Trey proves he can score in the paint, they’ll bring the double, giving Purdue a chance to get their shooters involved.

One thing to watch is how Ohio State handles the Smith/TKR high pick and roll. I anticipate their bigs jumping out and trying to push Smith back, and they’ve got athletes to make that happen. At the same time, Smith is an expert at hitting TKR on the short roll, and that seems to have fixed some of the early season issues of opponents blitzing Braden and forcing Purdue to run their offense while their point guard dribble away from the basket. Smith will need to be on his game tonight, but Purdue pretty much needs him to be on his game every night in conference play.

Overall

Toughness is the name of the game for the Boilermakers tonight. Ohio State is going to try to win by having their guards attack the paint off the dribble. Purdue’s defense has been significantly better at stopping dribble penetration after inserting Cox and Furst into the starting lineup. If Purdue forces Ohio State to shoot jumpers, they win. If Thornton is allowed to run the game with one foot in the paint, however, things will become significantly more difficult. Keeping Thornton out of the paint will most likely fall to freshmen C.J. Cox and Gicarri Harris. They need to stay in Thornton’s space and constantly push him away from the basket. They have a combined 10 fouls and shouldn’t hesitate to use them.

On offense, it’s simple:

Run the offense through Braden and TKR, get Ohio State into rotation, and drain open looks. As mentioned before, if Purdue hits close to their season average from three, Ohio State shouldn’t be able to score enough to win. I like Purdue in this one because I trust their shooting in Mackey Arena, especially against a team missing two starting guards.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue – 76

Ohio State – 67

Confidence – 79%

Drew

Purdue – 84

Ohio State – 72

I’m taking the Boilermakers for two reasons:

1. They’re at home
2. They shoot well at home

Ohio State has lost 4 of their last 5 conference games, but they’ve all been 1 or 2-point losses. They’re a better team than their 10-8 record indicates, but personally, I think Purdue is better than their 15-4 record indicates now that the lineup issues have seemingly been solved. If the Buckeyes were at full strength, it might be a different story (although I’d still take Purdue) but they’re not, and Purdue wears them down in the second half and buries them with a mid 2nd-half run before coasting to the finish.