Purdue takes on the Spartans tonight and according to the rules, one team will be forced to win a football game.
When Purdue and Michigan State face off tonight, it will be a battle between a team with 2 Big 10 wins (Michigan State) and 0 Big 10 wins (Purdue). After a 3-0 start to the season (2 wins came against FAU and Prairie View A&M, but they were wins none-the-less, and they did somehow knock off Maryland on the road), the Spartans have bottomed out under first year head coach Jonathan Smith. They’ve managed a single win (a head scratching 32-20 win over Iowa) since September 21st and have looked particularly bad in their last two games, losing 47-10 to Indiana at home and 38-16 on the road to Illinois.
What I’m saying, is that if you’re looking for a micro dose of hope, this game could provide.
Michigan State on Offense
The Spartan’s are 104th nationally in total offense. That’s a nice reprieve for Purdue after facing two top 20 offenses in consecutive weeks. Even better for the Boilermakers, Michigan State is 121st in scoring offense, averaging 19.4 points a game. They’ve only cracked 20 points once over their last six games (I still don’t understand how they put up 32 points on Iowa).
Quarterback
Freshman quarterback Aidan Chiles is physically gifted, but that hasn’t translated to on field success (yet) in his young career. He was a turnover machine early in the season, throwing 8 picks in their first 5 games, but has calmed that down a little recently, only throwing 3 in their last 5. One of the main issues with Chiles is he isn’t offsetting turnovers with touchdowns. He’s averaging a passing touchdown per game on the season but his last game against Illinois (despite the loss) may have been his best of the year. He completed 23/40 passes for 2 TDs, and 0 interceptions. He also rushed for 40 yards on 12 carries (his 2nd best rushing performance of the season). That gives me indigestion because teams that play well against Illinois’s defense, tend to play well against Purdue’s because structurally they’re the same.
Wide Receiver / Tight End
When they’re throwing the ball well, they’re getting it to 4* freshman Nick Marsh. He’s second on the team in terms of receptions (37) but first when it comes to yards (611). He’s a physical receiver at 6’3”, 208. I anticipate an interesting matchup between Nyland Green and Marsh on the outside.
6’0”, 185-pound Super senior Montorie Foster is their other primary target. He leads the team in receptions (42) and is second in yards (529). He’s coming off one of his best games of the season against Illinois where brining in 6 receptions for 76 yards. He also played a crucial role in the Spartans upset of Iowa pulling down 5 receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. I expect Breedlove to shadow him when possible.
The wildcard of the group is sophomore Aziah Johnson. The 6’2”, 175-pound speed merchant hasn’t caught many passes this season, but when he does catch them, they tend to go a long way. I mention him because he’s coming off his best two games of the season, a 4-reception, 48-yard outing against Indiana and a 3 reception, 70 yards, 1 touchdown game against Illinois. I think this job goes to Smiley Bradford, and he’ll need to be locked in because one mistake and Johnson can take it to the house like he did on a 56-yard reception against Illinois to open Michigan State’s account last week.
Tight end Jack Velling followed Coach Smith over from Oregon State (so did Chiles) but after putting up 8 touchdowns last season, he’s yet to visit the endzone in 2024. That’s not to say he isn’t catching passes. He has 30 receptions for 323 yards on the season and put up 6 receptions for 77-yards against Boston College and 6 receptions for 53-yards against Oregon. He’s only caught 3 passes for 27 yards over the last two weeks, but he’s a capable receiver who will most likely draw Antonio Stevens in the Purdue secondary.
Running Back
Nathan Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams have a time share similar to Purdue’s Mockobee and Love. Last game they could only muster 45 yards on 14 carries against Illinois. Combined they have 206 carries for 942 yards and 5 touchdowns. I’m combining them because Carter has 100 carries and Adams has 106 carries.
It’s been tough sledding for the Spartan backfield over the last two games, but looking back to their loss to Michigan, Nate Carter put up 118-yards on 19 carries and scored a touchdown. He also hauled in 2 receptions for 56 yards. The receptions are particularly troubling for a Purdue defense that has yet to figure out how to cover a running back. When a team goes 3-wide with a tight end, Purdue is stuck with a linebacker in man-coverage and with Winston Berglund injured, there simply isn’t a cover linebacker on the roster. Yanni has busted a couple coverages, and that’s why he’s no longer starting (see the Northwestern overtime TD), but Hudson Miller and Kydran Jenkins will both struggle to keep up with 5’9, 195-pound Carter. Smith is going to dial up a wheel route to the running back at least once tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it multiple times.
Offensive Line
They’re similar to Purdue, and that’s not a compliment. The Boilermakers are 104th in the nation in sacks allowed, giving up 2.7/game. Michigan State is 119th, giving up 3.2/game. That’s a place where the Boilermakers could potentially make some progress with their defensive front. Illinois finished the game last week with 5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. In theory, Purdue could put up a similar effort with their 5-man front. Don’t be surprised to see Kydran Jenkins lined up at rush-end more often than not. He’s Purdue’s best pass rusher by a long shot, and Michigan State struggles to pass block. They’ve been rotating their right tackles, but one of those tackles loses a redshirt if he plays another game. Kydran over the right tackle might be a winner for the Boilermaker defense.
Overall
It’s all about containing the big play for the Boilermaker defense, and well, that’s been an issue all season. Chiles will throw you the ball if you give him enough opportunities (but Purdue would have to catch it, and that’s been an issue all season), but Purdue will need to figure out how to do that while still heating him up a little. The defensive staff have backed off pressure the last 2 game to try and help the secondary, and it hasn’t worked. If there was ever a time to unleash the pass rush, it’s against this offensive line and this quarterback. Can Purdue find a way to both rush the passer and force the quarterback into making somewhat contested throws? I’ve yet to see it but hope springs eternal.
What concerns me is Michigan State finding a way to revive their run game. Purdue is 119th in the nation in rushing defense and I expect Coach Smith to try and beat the Boilermakers on the group first. There’s no need for his quarterback to put the ball in jeopardy if the run game is working. Purdue has to win on 1st and 2nd downs to give their pass rush a chance on 3rd down. That’s something I’ve yet to see as well, but once again, here’s hoping.
Michigan State on Defense
Front 7
The good news for Purdue is Michigan State doesn’t get after the quarterback much. They’re averaging 1.5 sacks a game, good for 110th in the nation. That should be a welcome relief after facing Ohio State and Penn State’s loaded defensive lines. They’re also not particularly good at stopping the run. Illinois mostly stuck to the passing game last week, but running back Josh McCray put up a crazy efficient 61 yards and 3 touchdowns on 9-carries.
Will Purdue put their front 7 to the test? Again, not sure, but it’s a place they might find some success. One thing that’s held the Purdue run game back is the score. It’s tough to commit to the run when you’re always chasing the game. It would be nice if the defense held on long enough for the run game to get going in this one.
Secondary
As with most bad teams, the Spartans also struggle to stop the pass, and that’s compounded by a spate of injuries to the secondary, both at corner and safety. According to Coach Smith, that will remain an issue tonight, as he doesn’t expect any of his injured players in the secondary, including safety Malik Spencer (3rd in tackles) and corner Charles Brantley (1st in interceptions) who both went down last week. Purdue’s passing game needs all the help it can get, and the combination of a weak Michigan State pass rush (0 sacks over the last 6 games) paired with an injured secondary could help the Boilermakers find something through the air. The last time Purdue played a team with similar talent, Card went for 267 and a touchdown against Northwestern. That’s not out of the realm of possibility against this Michigan State secondary.
Overall
After playing two elite defenses, Purdue gets a chance to have a chance on offense again tonight. If they can stay out of their own way instead of sabotaging every drive with either a drop, a false start, or a holding penalty, the Boilermakers should have their best opportunity to score points since the Northwestern game. I know the offense has been frustrating, but man, playing the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked teams over the span of 4 weeks is brutal. Throw in Notre Dame and the Boilermakers have lost to 4 teams in the top 10. I’d like to see what this offense looks like against a normal defense again. I’m setting the bar super low, but 21 points doesn’t seem like an insurmountable goal in this game.
At the end of the day, this is a game featuring two struggling teams. I’m not sure what either are “good” at this season. Purdue’s best chance to avoid the 0-fer Big 10 play goes down tonight in East Lansing. I’m feeling the faintest glimmer of hope in my stomach, but it’s possible that’s post lunch indigestion.
I guess we’ll find out in a few hours.