Well folks, I’ve got some bad news about Saturday.
I don’t think there is any reason to delve into the details of this one, but I’ve got a few notes on Ohio State if you’re interested.
Offense
Led by former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard, the Buckeyes rely on a combination of an explosive run game paired with some of the best receivers in college football. The offense line, while stout, has dealt with some injuries, with the left tackle spot, in particular, being a sticking point for the Buckeyes. That shouldn’t matter against the Boilermakers, but it at least gives the Purdue coaching staff a place to theoretically attack.
Here’s the interesting news, and terrifying news; Ohio State’s offense has been in a rut since their loss to Oregon on October 12th. They only managed 21 against Nebraska and 20 against Penn State. They won both games, but they were single possession victories. That scares me because Ryan Day might be interested in unleashing the offense on Saturday.
What that looks like is a heavy dose of running back Quinshon Judkins between the tackles, explosive athlete Treveyon Henderson on the edges, and star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka down the field.
If you consider Iowa and Michigan State somewhat analogous to Purdue in terms of talent, those games may offer a clue to the Boilermakers fate tomorrow. Against the Spartans, it took Ohio State’s offense a quarter to get going, only putting up a field goal in the first stanza before a 21-point explosion, including 2 touchdowns from all-world freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith in the second quarter, essentially ended the game at halftime. The Buckeyes tacked on an Emeka Egubka receiving touchdown and a Will Howard rushing touchdown in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs and bringing in their second wave of not quite as good 5* recruits in the 4th.
Iowa is probably the best-case scenario for the Boilermakers. They held Ohio State to 7-points in the first half before the Bucknuts hit the gas in the third quarter, put 3-touchdowns on the board, and sent the locals home happy. Once again, the receivers led the way with Egbuka picking up their lone touchdown in the 1st quarter, and then using a Smith and Ebuka receiving touchdowns sandwiched between a Will Howard rushing touchdown to end things in the 3rd quarter. Egbuka tacked on another receiving touchdown early in the 4th and Ohio State coasted the rest of the way.
While the passing game will work against Purdue, I’m more concerned about the Boilermakers run defense. Against Nebraska, Ohio State only managed 64 yards on 31 carries. Last week that got it going a little more against a tough Penn State defense, putting up 176 rushing yards on 40 carries. I suspect that Day will look to further unlock the run game early, and then fall back to their stud receivers if that doesn’t go to plan. TreVeyon Henderson off either edge in the zone read game should be of particular concern. If one of Purdue’s edge defenders fails to set contain and allows Henderson free access to the Boilermaker secondary, he could be in for a record setting day. If he hits the second level at speed, no one is touching him in the open field.
I don’t expect Will Howard to play much of a role in the run game against Purdue, because he shouldn’t have to, but when called upon, consider Howard more of an athletic tight end than a typical quarterback. He’s big, strong, and won’t hesitate to lower a shoulder and leave someone in a heap. His brother is an offensive tackle at Kansas State, and 6’4”, 235, Howard is bigger than most of Purdue’s linebackers. He was more involved in the run game at Kansas State, but Purdue might give the Buckeye coaching staff an opportunity to dust off Howard’s running ability heading into more meaningful games down the stretch.
The only glimmer of hope for the Boilermaker defense is Will Howard’s propensity for head scratching turnovers. On occasion, he’ll try and fit something into coverage that doesn’t make any sense. He has 19 passing touchdowns to only 5 interceptions, but I’m searching hard for something, and this is the best I can come up with. A 3-turnover day from Howard might keep this game respectable.
Ohio State Defense
I’m not even sure where to start on this one. As scary as Ohio State’s offense is on paper, their defense has been scary on the field (Oregon being the key exception). Using the Michigan State and Iowa game as guide, things look bleak for Hudson Card and company.
Against Michigan State, the Buckeye’s front terrorized Aidan Chiles, sacking him 4 times and forcing both an interception and a fumble. The Spartan run game averaged 1.9 yards a carry. Iowa met a similar fate with Cade McNamara throwing for 98 yards and an interception while being sacked 4 times. Running back Kaleb Johnson did manage to break off a 28-yard rushing touchdown late in the game against the Ohio State bench but had little success against the starters.
I don’t know what else to say. I think Purdue’s only option is to try scheme up some deep shots to Klare, Smith, and Edrine using max protection blocking schemes and hope someone makes a play. Hudson might throw a couple picks, but if the goal is to avoid a shutout, I don’t see any other way forward. Ohio State’s run defense is one of the best in the game when not playing Oregon, and Purdue, as we’ve seen, isn’t Oregon.
Overall
Sometimes you’re the hammer and sometimes you’re the nail. I’ll let you decide which role Purdue will fulfill on Saturday in Columbus.