Boilermakers hit the road for a key early season matchup against the Gophers.
If you’re looking for my extended preview, this isn’t it. Fear not, it will return for the Northwestern game on Sunday. The good news is that Minnesota is a stunningly easy team to preview. Garrett has already provided the team stats here, and as you can see, we’ve got a classic matchup of the tortoise (Purdue’s tempo is 306th in the nation) vs. the tortoise (Minnesota’s is 360th).
The Gophers aren’t a hard team to figure out. They want to slow the game down and see if Dawson Garcia (C) and Mike Mitchell (G) can score enough points to win the game. If you’ve watched Purdue basketball over the last few seasons, you’ve seen Garcia play. He’s a mobile 6’11”, 230-pound center who was one of the top recruits in the 2020 class. He started his career at Marquette, tried out North Carolina for a season, and is now on his third, and presumably final, season at Minnesota (tough to make any definitive statements regarding the future of college athletics these days).
Garcia makes some questionable decisions when it comes to his hair, but his on-court decision-making is solid. He’s currently averaging a career-high 19 points and 7 rebounds a game while only turning it over 1.4 times per game. Considering the fact that every defense Minnesota faces is geared up to stop Garcia, that’s impressive.
At 6’11”, he can play all over the court. He’s adept as both the roll man in the pick-and-roll or as a shooter in the pick-and-pop. He can space to the corner and hit the 3 and is more than capable of posting up and playing bully ball when he draws a smaller defender. If you put a big on Garcia, he takes them outside. When you put a wing on Garcia, he takes them inside. Purdue will put T.K.R. on him, and that’s the matchup that will dictate this game. The Boilermakers will bring an auto double any time Garcia gets a touch in the paint and will try to crowd him on the 3-point line and make him put the ball on the floor. The first player to get his opposite into foul trouble creates a massive advantage for their squad. In fact, Purdue can afford to lose T.K.R. to fouls more than Minnesota can afford to lose Garcia, and that’s saying something.
Garcia’s running buddy is senior guard Mike Mitchell. When the Gophers are playing well, it’s because the duo of Garcia and Mitchell are playing well. That’s mainly because when they’re on the floor together, the goal of the Minnesota offense is to create space for Garcia with Mitchell and to create shots for Mitchell with Garcia. Things quickly fell apart for the Gopher offense when Mitchell went down to a high ankle sprain in the second game of the season against Nebraska Omaha and missed the next eight games before returning to action against Indiana on December 9th. Don’t let the Gophers’ record fool you into thinking Purdue is in for light work. With Mitchell, it’s hard to see this team losing to North Texas (54-51), Wichita St. (68-66), or Wake Forest (57-51) because they’re better on offense with Mitchell than those scores indicate.
At the same time, it gives you an idea of how important Mitchell and Garcia are to Ben Johnson’s team. When Mitchell is healthy, he’s a dynamic scorer and their best 3-point shooter by a wide margin (the second-best shooter being Dawson Garcia). Mitchell is currently hitting 49% from deep on 18-37 shooting. His game reminds me a little of Carson Edwards. He’s got a quick trigger, and when he’s feeling it, if he rocks you back with a jab step, the ball is going up. He’s coming in smoking hot after a 6/8 performance from behind the arc in his last game against Morgan State. Combined, Mitchell and Garcia went 10-13 from 3 in that game, with the rest of the team going 3/16. Again, that’s a pretty good indication of where you should focus your defense when you play Minnesota.
Purdue needs to stay attached to Mitchell and make him drive the ball. It’s not that he can’t drive the ball, it’s that when he is driving the ball, he can’t hurt you from behind the arc, and unless he’s passing to Garcia for a corner 3, there aren’t many other options. Between Mitchell and Garcia, Mitchell is the easier player to stop, and if both don’t score, Minnesota loses. That’s something Purdue needs to recognize this game. If you’re guarding Mike Mitchell, you have to guard Mike Mitchell. You can’t help off on some other Minnesota player who is significantly less likely to beat you. You can’t try to cheat on the pick and go under, because he’s going to pull up from deep every time that happens, usually late in the shot clock.
After Minnesota’s big two, there’s some talent (not a ton, to be honest), but no consistency. It’s almost exactly like Purdue outside of the big three (except they’re missing a Fletcher Loyer-type player). Lu’Cye Patterson is a weird matchup at 6’1”, 230, and could cause some issues for the Boilermaker guards on the blocks. But after averaging 14 a game for Charlotte last season, he’s only scoring 10 for Minnesota and is shooting a putrid 22% from deep. Parker Fox is another experienced player, and honestly, I had to check and make sure he was the same little-used walk-on that I covered at Clemson a couple of years ago. It’s the same guy. Fox is going to play hard and score some opportunistic buckets, but Heide should be able to win his position today.
Bottom Line
Contain Mike Mitchell, don’t get dominated on the boards, and keep turnovers reasonable, and Purdue will win this game. The Gophers have played two Big 10 games and got whomped in both, losing to Michigan State at home 90-72 and losing to Indiana on the road 82-67. They’ve had two squash matches against FDU (gags) and Morgan State (the 330th & 348th ranked teams in KenPom) to feel good about themselves coming into this game, and that’s my only real concern.
Mitchell and Garcia are both feeling good about things, and that’s the only way forward for Minnesota. I think Purdue does a reasonable job of slowing down one of the two (most likely Mitchell) and pulls out a road win. KenPom agrees with me and is predicting a 70-64 Purdue win with 72% confidence. I don’t want to say a game taking place on January 2nd is a “must-win,” but Purdue won’t find an easier road game in the Big 10 this season. If they have any designs on making a run for the Big 10 Championship, they need to win this game. I think they take care of business.