Purdue’s Post Loss Puzzle: Projecting the Boilers NCAA Tournament Seed

A one time 2 seed seems like a distant memory for the Boilers following a disappointing loss in the B1G Tourney to Michigan

It was just a few weeks ago that the NCAA Tournament selection committee released their top 16 seeds. It came at a time when Purdue had started coming to form defensively and Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn were flexing their muscles on their way to major individual accolades. That announcement placed Purdue a the 2 seed in the Midwest bracket alongside Alabama (1), Iowa State (3), and Kansas (4) and it came on February 15th. That was just four days removed from a tough road loss to Michigan and the Boilers would go on to lose their second of four straight to Wisconsin at

Suddenly, the Boilers look more like they may end up on the outside looking in when it comes to Selection Sunday following a blowout loss to a Michigan team that hadn’t beaten anyone by more than four points since January 12th. It is another notch into the struggles for this team that has now lost six of the their last nine games over the last month. Will that have an effect on the Boilers who seemingly had entered the B1G Tourney solidly on the 4 line with a chance at a 3 if they were able to make it to the finals.

So where does this leave Purdue? Let’s dive in a bit here:

• Purdue’s overall record is now 22-11. They are 7-10 in Q1 and 9-1 in Q2. They remain undefeated in Q3 and Q4.
• Purdue was 16th in the NET prior to the loss to Michigan. Michigan was 20th prior to the win.
• The loss dropped Purdue to 19th overall on Kenpom.
• Wisconsin, ranked 18th in the NET, will play Michigan State in the semi-finals. The Badgers hold a head to head victory over Purdue during the regular season.
• Texas A&M, who is 17th in the NET and holds a victory over Purdue, lost in the second round of the SEC Tourney.
• Missouri, who is 19th in the NET, lost in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tourney.
• Clemson, who is 22nd in the NET, lost to Louisville in the semifinals of the ACC Tourney.
• Louisville, who is 26th in the NET, will play Duke for the ACC Tourney Championship

One reason it is important to maintain that spot on the four line is because of the advantages it places you when getting placed in the first round. It would have also afforded Purdue a chance to play as close to West Lafayette as possible. If the Boilers drop to a 5 seed, they could very well be playing very far away for the first two rounds.

The selection committee ensure they look at the totality of a season for each team when selecting the 68 teams that will get bids but then also when seeding them. This larger body of work is going to help Purdue but the Badgers and Louisville could very well play themselves onto the four seed like with wins tomorrow in their respective tourneys. Purdue seems to be just holding on to that 16th place in the overall NET Standings but those numbers have yet to be updated as of 1:00am on March 15th.

More than likely, Purdue will likely end up as the weakest of the four sees and be placed in the same bracket as the Auburn Tigers. With Cooper Flagg being out at Duke for an unknown amount of time, I doubt the committee would award the #1 overall to them with that uncertainty. So that would likely pull Purdue into the South Region and possibly playing their first round games in Raleigh NC or Lexington, KY.

I still believe the committee may look at Purdue’s recently struggles and slide them down to the 5 seed. If that happens, it would be very hard to guess which region they would get placed in to. My guess would be to again place them with the overall #1 seed but the prospects of playing Auburn in R2 is a lot tougher to down rather than in the second weekend.

What Seed Line and Where Do You Think Purdue will End Up?