Will things go well for the Hoosiers?
With the rivalry game coming up this week I wanted to give the staff a chance to step in and give their thoughts on this one. Here’s what I asked: Given the direction of IU and Purdue basketball right now I want to know your place prediction for each school in the Big Ten this year, does each team make the NCAA, and who wins this week?
Ledman:
I think at this point it’s a two team race for the Big Ten title with Purdue and MSU out in front. Illinois and Wisconsin still have a chance but they are outside looking in. As for IU? Well, they are fighting to stay at .500 in conference play and their next six games are not easy and I’d be shocked if they went 3-3 as they play Purdue twice, @Wisconsin, Michigan, @MSU, and UCLA. I don’t see them getting to three wins there and that puts them into a bigger hole. Purdue is gonna win this one going away.
Ryan:
For what it’s worth, Joe Lunardi had Indiana as the second team out of the tournament Friday right behind Nebraska. So clearly, the Hoosiers are on the bubble. That was also before losing at home to Maryland and subsequently getting booed off the court. As we discussed on the Boiler Alert Podcast, Indiana has talent; they always do, but a lack of outside shooting and redundancy in that talent makes them an inefficient winning team. To make matters worse, Indiana’s schedule is about to turn up to 11 because their next 6 games are @Purdue, @Wisconsin, vs Michigan, @Michigan State, vs UCLA, vs Purdue. Oh, and then they have to make a west coast swing against Washington and Oregon before finishing the season at home against Ohio State. You could realistically see Indiana win 3-4 more conference games this season and finish with a sub-.500 record in Big Ten play. Clearly, they would miss the tournament at that point barring a miraculous Big Ten tournament run. The other side of the sword for Indiana is that they have a lot of opportunities for big wins in their last 10 games.
Now for the other end of the spectrum in Purdue. Playing time and money are not what brings recruits to Purdue; being part of a winning program does (though that other stuff does actually help). Sitting at 8-2 in conference, Purdue is still squarely in the mix for winning the Big Ten regular season championship, though the Boilermakers will need Michigan State to slip at least twice to have a shot. Purdue’s schedule, while staying within the midwest, is no cakewalk though. Trips to Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Illinois present plenty of challenges but to be the best, you have to win these games. Purdue has won these games in the recent past and the trio of Smith, Loyer, and Kaufman-Renn certainly understand what it takes. I think Purdue is about 2-3 wins away from locking up a tournament spot, but a potential 2 seed could be on the line if the Boilermakers finish strong.
As for the game this week, I’ll make it simple. Purdue is playing in Mackey and has already had the wake up call after dropping one to Ohio State at home. Home team prevails and after seemingly endless near-misses, Braden Smith finally gets his triple-double.
Purdue 78
Indiana 64
Jed:
Right now it appears IU is still struggling to find their identity and play cohesive basketball. The Hoosiers have struggled to a 14-7 and are just 5-5 halfway through the conference season and its not like they are heading into the easy part of their schedule. In fact, Indiana’s second half of their schedule in the B1G is much more difficult with games against Purdue (x2), @ Michigan State, @ Wisconsin, @ Oregon, UCLA, and Michigan. That amounts to pretty much the entire top of the conference and doesn’t bode well for the Hoosiers as they likely finish 8-12 in the conference and finish between 12th and 14th.
Meanwhile, the Boilers will face the muddy middle of the B1G with Indiana (x2), Rutgers, Iowa, and USC making up half of their remaining games. That bodes well for the Boilers who are still within distance of the Spartans in the hopes of a B1G title and likely finish 15-5 and 2nd in the B1G. That kind of finish likely puts Purdue as a 3 seed and a team nobody wants to face with the level of guard play they get and the suddenly top 25 defense.
I’ll withhold my whole prediction for ‘The Three Pointer’ later this week but I think this is one where Purdue beats the Hoosiers by at least 8.
Kyle:
Purdue vs IU is one of the best, if not the best rivalry in college basketball. Both teams of historic past, but one team is propelling into the future while the other is pedaling under water.
Purdue I believe finishes 1st or 2nd in the Big Ten. The first half of the Big Ten Schedule is over and was difficult for Purdue. It lightens up a bit over the last 10 games.
IU has had a difficult last week or so. And their next 5 games are against the best of the Big Ten, that multi million starting five isn’t earning their paycheck and they’ll more than likely lose 4 of those 5 games.
Purdue is a lock to the NCAAT, I see them as as 3 or 4 seed, personally.
IU will be at home or the NIT unless they flip a switch late this season.