The Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-10) vs. Indiana (10-1)

NCAA Football: Indiana at Ohio State — Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

The Boilers and Hoosiers battle again for the Old Oaken Bucket

The 2024 season will come to an end for Ryan Walters and the Purdue Boilermakers as they square off with an Indiana Hoosiers team that is just one game away from an 11-1 record and an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff. The season has been an abject disaster for the Boilermakers in Ryan Walters’ second season as head coach as the Boilers have lost 10 straight games and have been outscored by a total of 413-140 in the span.

For those bad at math, that is a point differential of 273 points. That also means Purdue would need 20 more games at their current scoring average of 14 points per game against FBS opponents to make up that differential. As stated earlier, the season has been an abject disaster.

For the Hoosiers, however, it has been the total opposite as they are having the greatest season in program history under first year head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers had a disappointing performance against Ohio State last week that saw them drop their first game of the season, but the Hoosiers had been extremely impressive up to that point. The Hoosier offense didn’t look great but their defense did play relatively well in a game of that magnitude that nobody on that roster was prepared for. This game is vastly different.

My prediction was already posted in a previous article so you likely already know I called this a blowout victory for the Hoosiers. In fact, I said it would be 56-14 and likely wouldn’t be much of a game past the first quarter considering the Boilers have been outscore by an average of .6-9.7 this season (and yes, that does include Purdue’s game against Indiana State). But, this is an article about what Purdue needs to do to win the game so…

Let’s get into ‘The Three Point Stance.’

Check out these stats on the season for Purdue that show how poorly the season has gone so far…

1 | Make the Game Shorter by Establishing the Run Game

Listen, Purdue’s offense is absolutely putrid overall. There isn’t really anything they can do particularly well at this point in the season as they are ranked 15th in passing offense and 14th in rushing. That being said, if they want any chance to beat the Hoosiers they have to shorten the game, keep Rourke and the offense off the field, and limit the Hoosiers’ possessions.

Purdue has two solid running backs in Mockobee and Love but really no creativity when it comes to the running game. Jason Simmons, in his single game calling the plays for Purdue, attempted to do some things different but it seems Walters has reverted back to whatever it is he feels comfortable doing and the fact Purdue only managed -4 rushing yards last week against Michigan State likely says Walters is going to try and use Hudson Card to throw the ball around the field. That’s not a formula for success for the Boilers.

They’ll need the biggest rushing game of the season for Purdue to have a shot and that means rushing for more than 250 yards. Now, the Boilers have gone above 200 yards this season four times (Indiana State, Oregon State, Oregon, and Illinois), so they are capable. The issue is Walters seems impatient and unwilling to simply run the offense to control clock, something he showed last year when he was far too aggressive at multiple times of the season.

2 | Turn the Hoosiers over 3 or More Times

Listen, it’s not likely to happen considering Purdue is one of the worst teams at turning their opponents over this season. Again, we are working in hypotheticals to try and get Purdue a path to a victory. The bigger issue might be the fact that Indiana has one of the best turnover margins in the country at +10, good for 11th in the country. Cignetti has his team playing clean, fundamentally sound football and that kind of statistic proves it.

If it does happen though, it is another opportunity to limit Indiana’s overall possessions thus limiting their overall ability to score points. It also helps with the first point in controlling the clock through the run game. I am, though, not confident that Purdue would likely turn it over two or three times if that did happen given their propensity to have costly errors at moments when they can least afford to make them throughout the entire season.

3 | Don’t Make the Costly Mistake

Man, this has been one of the more frustrating things for Purdue fans to watch this season. Whether it be on offense with a false start, holding, dropped pass, fumble, or running out of the back of the end zone for a failed touchdown reception OR a defensive pass interference, face mask, personal foul, mind numbingly bad tackling, or blown coverages on defense OR missed field goals, blocked punts, or kicks out of bounds, Purdue just seems to always find a way to shoot themselves in the foot.

Purdue isn’t a good enough team to literally make ANY mistakes and costly ones that stall a good offensive drive, give up an explosive play, or prevent them from scoring drives simply can’t happen. If there was one game Purdue needed to not have any penalties or stupid mistakes, this would be a great time to have one.

Extra Point | Some One Has to Make Some Explosive Plays Outside

Purdue is lucky that they do have one of the better tight ends in the country in Max Klare (for one more game at least). He is a future NFL type player that can get into space and make explosive plays happen as he has shown multiple times this season. The issue has largely been getting him the ball in positions to do just that and the same could be said for the lackluster wide receivers as well.

The receivers, touted as being a position group that could surprise given the news of the important additions from the portal and the ability of the incoming freshman, have been disappointing in key situations. Drops, poor routes, and an unwillingness for many of them to block (Edrine is one of the better blocking receivers Purdue has had outside of David Bell, by the way) have been way too frequent.

Against the Hoosiers, Purdue likely needs 6 plays of 20 or more yards in the passing game to prevent the defense from simply stacking the box to stop the run and playing a single high safety with man to man coverage. That is due to the receivers being largely unable to get themselves open for a quarterback who is very slow in his decision making process.

Players to Watch:

Kurtis Rourke | Quarterback | Grad Transfer-Ohio | 179-256 69.9% 2478yrd 21TD 4INT

The grad transfer quarterback from Ohio has been a revelation for the Hoosiers this season as he is having, arguably, an All B1G caliber season. Rourke has likely played himself into consideration as a 4th to 6th round draft pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Rourke is a wonderful thrower who anticipates his receivers breaks and can put the ball where it needs to be.

Largely unnoticed with all of the really good running backs in the B1G, Ellison and Lawton have provided the necessary counter to Rourke’s throwing ability. Combining for 1,335 yards and 19 touchdowns is good work that keeps the defense honest but both have shown an ability to catch passes out of the backfield as well.

Elijah Sarratt | Wide Receiver | Transfer-JMU | 41rec 725yrd 6TD

Could have easily picked Omar Cooper Jr (once considered a heavy Purdue lean) as a player to watch but Sarratt is the biggest receiving threat that the Hoosiers have. He hasn’t had the types of games he has earlier in the seaosn but that is likely due to opposing defenses focusing on him so heavily. He’ll get lots of chances against man to man coverage against the Boilers and that may lead to a 100 yard receiving day and at least one TD.

Aidan Fisher | Linebacker | Transfer-JMU | 102TKL 4TFL 1.5SK 3PD

Another one of those JMU transfers that have built this roster, Fisher is a hard nosed linebacker that leads the Hoosiers in total tackles. He is able to drop into coverage while being able to step into the middle of the run game to close holes and chase ball carriers to the edge.

Mikail Kamara | Rush End | Transfer-JMU | 42TKL 15TKL 9.5SK 1PD 3FF 2FR

Kamara is one of the best edges in the country and is a top 5 at that position heading into the NFL Draft. He is likely a Round 2-4 type player and his 9.5 sacks show for it. He is an explosive player but has not recorded a sack in his last two games. Look for that to change against a Boilermaker OL that has struggled to keep their QB’s upright.

Prediction:

Mercifully this season is finally almost over. What started with lots of promises and expectations of a better second season under Ryan Walters quickly devolved into being the butt of nearly every joke over the last 10 weeks. From the drubbing against Notre Dame following a bye week, getting 52 hung on them by a 5-6 (looking like a 5-7) Wisconsin team, getting beat at home by Northwestern, and then having national media poking fun at your ineptitude as a program. Unfortunately, Purdue’s season won’t end mercifully as they will likely face the best IU football team that program has ever had and one that will likely be playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Over Thanksgiving, Purdue lost two of their best committed players while also seemingly starting the portal jumping with former four star tight end Tayvion Galloway announcing his intent to leave the program. It just isn’t going right and I doubt it does against a motivated IU team.

This one isn’t likely to be pretty and is likely to be over before the middle half of the second quarter. Let’s all see what news breaks on Sunday afternoon.

Indiana: 56
Purdue: 14