The Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-3) vs. Wisconsin (2-2)

Wisconsin Badgers Vs. South Dakota Coyotes — Photo by Ross Harried/NurPhoto via Getty Images

A disappointing start for the Boilers finds them with a new OC and a trip to Madison to face the Badgers

The Purdue Boilermakers will head north to Madison to face off with the Wisconsin Badgers with a new offensive coordinator and staring directly at a 1-4 start to the season. Off another disappointing offensive game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers that saw Purdue holding onto a 3-0 lead late in the fourth quarter but eventually turned into a 28-10 loss, Head Coach Ryan Walters released Graham Harrell from all responsibilities with the program and elevated offensive analyst Jason Simmons into that vacated role. Simmons, a former head coach at Ben Davis High School in Indianapolis, had spent the previous year as the running backs coach at Miami (OH).

Simmons will have a tall task in front of him as the Boilers have averaged just 12.7 points per game in their three losses and averaging just 235 total yards. The most glaringly obvious stat line, however, was the time of possession where Purdue struggled to stay on the field thus forcing the defense into situations where they repeatedly were left on the field. In fact, against Oregon State, the Boilers had the ball for only 19:45 of the entire game.

Wisconsin will enter this game on a two game losing streak of their own but coming against two of the nations better programs that are expected to make the College Football Playoff. The Badgers lost 42-10 to #4 Alabama and 38-21 to #13 USC while defeating Western Michigan and FCS South Dakota in somewhat lackluster fashion. This isn’t the dominant type of Wisconsin team that Purdue has faced over the last two decades, yet it seems an insurmountable task to get a victory on the road this season.

Let’s jump into the Three Point Stance to see where Purdue needs to be successful to grab a road win in the B1G:

1 | Control the Game with the Running Game

It’s no secret that Purdue is struggling to throw the ball with Hudson Card looking as if he has regressed this season. Although it will be interesting to see if some of that has been scheme and play calling, Card has frequently held onto the ball too long and appears as though he doesn’t trust his receivers outside of Edrine to make plays off quick throws. What can new offensive coordinator Jason Simmons do to take that pressure off Card?

It would be beneficial to get both Mockobee and Love onto the field at the same time in any sort of two back set but if it includes two tight ends, that might serve the Boilers the best. This would be classified as 21 or 22 personnel and gets what appears to be Purdue’s two best offensive players on the field at the same time. In this, it would be beneficial to see Ryan Browne on the field to give the Boilers a legitimate running threat at quarterback in the option game and provide him opportunities to throw quick, easy routes as well.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 18 Purdue at Northwestern

Purdue needs to be able to run the ball and shorten the game but more than that it needs to have their best players on the field as much as possible. Purdue’s rushing attacks needs to be well above their 150 yards per game average they are at right now to stay in this game. If Purdue can be at 180 yards on the ground, they have a chance.

2 | Stop the Run, Stop the Run, Stop the Run

Purdue’s run defense has been abysmal so far this season, although there seemed to be some improvement in that area against the Cornhuskers. That 161 yards isn’t great but when the defense had given up 362 yards to Notre Dame and 263 yards to Oregon State, that amount was a welcomed sight. So what more can the defense do?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 28 Nebraska at Purdue

The movement of Dillon Thieneman closer to the line of scrimmage was a good start to get him more involved in the run game and be able to make plays in the backfield. That was evident on an early Nebraska drive that saw Thieneman attack an outside run to the defense’s left and make a stop behind the line of scrimmage on a fourth down attempt. However, that may not be enough moving forward as Purdue still needs more penetration from its’ defensive lineman and being more physical setting the edge to prevent sweeps and outside runs from chewing up big chunks of yards.

It would be nice to see Kydran Jenkins playing more on the line of scrimmage as the rush end with Winston Berglund being a better athlete to defend the pass and make plays to the outside. Jenkins continues to be Purdue’s best option to get into the backfield but struggles at the inside linebacker spot to defend in space and get outside to attack run plays.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 14 Notre Dame at Purdue

If the Boilers can hold the badgers to under 150 total rushing yards, something they haven’t been able to do all too often over the last twenty years, they may have a shot at a big road win.

3 | Make Braedyn Locke Uncomfortable

Last week against Nebraska, Purdue didn’t do enough to make true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola uncomfortable enough to force him into mistakes. Purdue had only one sack and three hurries and generally didn’t get into the backfield all day. Walters’ defense is predicated on being able to overwhelm an offense by bringing pressure from different spots and forcing the quarterback into mistakes but hasn’t been able to do that at all so far this season.

Locke hasn’t been all that efficient so far in the two games he has played in, going just 26-52 (50%) for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. The most important key, however, is that he does not appear to be a threat to escape the pocket on a consistent basis and be a threat in the running game. That bodes well for Purdue’s defense that has struggled to account for the quarterback in the running game. This means that Kydran Jenkins, play inside linebacker, can focus his attention elsewhere and can be used more frequently to apply pressure in the middle of the offensive line.

If Purdue wants to be successful, they’ll need to stop the run and force Locke into winning the game by throwing to receivers who have failed to individual hit 100 yards in any game so far this season. Hopefully by doing so Purdue will force their first turnovers of the season, and likely needing multiple turnovers to do so.

Extra Point | Get Some Turnovers

This has been an issue all season as Purdue currently ranks as the only team in major college football to have a defense that has failed to turnover their opponent. This is something that simply can’t happen as Purdue isn’t good enough to not get extra possessions to score. Wisconsin has done a good job so far this season with grabbing five turnovers while turning it over six times themselves. That should bode well for a Purdue team that NEEDS turnovers to win, especially on the road at Wisconsin.

In this regard, Purdue needs to generate multiple turnovers while likely not having any of their own.

Players to Watch:

Chez Mellusi | Running Back | Grad | 56 car, 232 yards, 4.1 yards/att, 3 TD

Mellusi has turned into a very good back following his transfer from Clemson and has used his additional year this season to stay at Wisconsin. Most Wisconsin fans would probably agree that he has been a bit of disappointment since his first year with Wisconsin where he ran for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns through only 9 games as his 2023 season was cut short due to injury. Last season Mellusi had rushed 11 times for 39 yards before an injury forced him out for the season.

Hunter Wohler | Strong Safety | Senior | 24 tackles, 17 solo

Wohler is the anchor for a good Badger defense and is relied upon to clean up a lot of the mess in the run game from the strong safety position. The entire Badger defense hasn’t applied a lot of pressure so far this season with just 7 sacks but they remain a fundamentally sound team that doesn’t give up a lot of big plays outside of Ryan Williams and Alabama. Wohler is one of those reasons why that hasn’t happened a lot.

Braedyn Locke | Quarterback | Sophomore | 26-52 (50%), 305 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, -15 rush

Locke is a good but not great quarterback that backed up Tyler Van Dyke the last two seasons. Following Van Dyke’s ACL injury, Locke is now the starter and has struggled against Alabama and USC. What will he look like against a much more favorable Purdue defense? He has some quality experience from last season going 76-152 (50%) for 777 yards, 5 TD’s, and 1 INT. He doesn’t turn it over a lot and that doesn’t bode well for the Boilers.

Prediction:

Purdue needs a victory in the worst way following as bad of a three game stretch as the program has had in a decade. With analyst Jason Simmons taking over duties as offensive coordinator, look for Purdue’s play calling to be a bit different. There will be some new looks but the scheme will probably stay relatively the same and that doesn’t likely bode well for a unit that appears to very much so be in a ‘square peg-round hole’ situation.

The more that I dive into this game, the more I find myself thinking that Purdue has a chance to pull an upset on the road here in Madison. Yes, better Purdue teams have struggled against the Badgers over the last twenty years to get a win but this Wisconsin team might be the one where Purdue finally pulls it together and gets the job done. Will they do that though? I’m not so sure.

Wisconsin will be starting Braedyn Locke again with Tyler Van Dyke being out for the season with a torn ACL while the Wisconsin offense struggled to get anything consistent the last two weeks (granted it was against two top 15 opponents). What plays into Purdue’s favor is that Wisconsin doesn’t have the big time receivers to give the Boilers difficulties in one on one coverage with a healthy set of defensive backs in Nyland Green, Tarrion Grant, Kyndrich Breedlove, and others. That means Purdue should be able to focus solely on slowing down a good but not great Wisconsin rushing attack and trying to make Locke uncomfortable in the pocket.

Purdue seems ready to take a more conservative approach on offense to slow the game down and drag opponents into the second half in a close game, much like they did to Nebraska. The issue remains if the offense will be able to score enough points to pull out some wins against teams that they should be able to compete with. In the end, I don’t see it happening on the road against the Badgers.

Badgers: 27
Boilers: 17