The Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-5) vs. Illinois (4-1)

Illinois v Nebraska — Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

The Boilers travel to Champaign in hopes of retaining The Cannon for another year

The Purdue Boilermakers will make the short trip west to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in what will be the 72nd battle for the Purdue Cannon. The Boilers lead 40-30-2 in those battles for the cannon and 48-45 overall with Purdue winning seven of the last eight. This game, however, appears it will be a struggle for Ryan Walters’ team as he makes his first return to Champaign after leaving the Illini to become the head coach at Purdue.

Purdue will be in their second game under interim offensive coordinator and former high school head coach Jason Simmons when the Boilers travel to Champaign. In his first week, the Boilermaker offense didn’t fair much better after their move away from Graham Harrell in only gaining 216 total yards and scoring just 6 points. The defense was not much better in giving up 52 points to a Wisconsin team that had a season high of 28 points (Western Michigan).

Illinois appears to be on solid footing as a program with former Wisconsin head coach Brett Bielema in his fourth year as the Illini head coach. Holding a record of 4-1 this season and an overall record of 22-20, Bielema has shown a skill in rebuilding the Illini into a solid program that is currently ranked 23rd in college football. Led by Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmeyer, Illinois brings a balanced attack that can give opposing defenses fits.

Let’s jump into the ‘Three Point Stance.’

1 | Penalties, Penalties, Penalties

Purdue has been flagged 39 times for 439 yards so far this season and means they are being flagged on average of 7.8 times per game. Being flagged that many times is a sign of an undisciplined program and one that may be devoid of leadership. The penalties range from multiple defensive pass interference calls, to personal fouls, holding penalties that puts the offense in bad situations. Any way that you cut it, Purdue simply can’t afford to have it happen.

If Purdue is going to compete with anyone left on the schedule they likely need to get through games with three or four penalties per game. Purdue just isn’t good enough to overcome their lack of skill, their lack of scheme, and their lack of coaching with penalties that gives opponents free yards and pushes them behind the sticks.

Goal: Four or less penalties

2 | Punting is…Winning?

Hard to believe but Purdue’s best player may in fact be Mississippi State transfer punter Keelan Crimmins. Crimmins is currently averaging 45.0 yards per punt which would be the second best season average in program history, behind Travis Dorsch’s 2001 season (48.1 yards per punt). Crimmins’ ability to flip the field has helped Purdue put opposing teams in less than ideal situations, even if it hasn’t translated to a lot of stops.

The idea behind placing this as one of the aspects Purdue needs to do well to win is because it might be the one thing that has consistently gone well for the Boilers so far this year. If Purdue is going to get a win then they are going to have to continue having the things that go well, go well. Crimmins needs to continue trying to put Purdue’s defense in the best situations possible to get stops or at least slow the opposing offense down to limit scoring opportunities.

Goal: Crimmins needs to hit that average or possibly be higher than that 45.0 average.

3 | Get to the Quarterback

A year after having two of the best in the B1G at getting to the quarterback, Purdue is struggling to do the same in 2024. Right now, Purdue has only 9 total sacks and are averaging just 1.80 per game, a drop of nearly 1.5 sacks per game from 2023. More than that, Purdue has only 27 tackles for loss through six games for an average of 4.5 per game. That is a drop of 2.5 tackles for loss from last year where Purdue grabbed 71 total tackles for loss. Purdue just can’t make the plays when they need to be made.

The loss of Nic Scourton is obviously being felt immensely but frequently Purdue’s best players are missing tackles and allowing plays to go for big, explosive plays. Thieneman, Jenkins, and Heldt have got to make big plays and minimize the mistakes they make. When the best players are playing just average, Purdue doesn’t have enough other guys to pick up the slack. For an example of that, see last week where Markevious Brown grabbed two interceptions yet they still gave up 52 points.

Goal: Purdue has got to get three or four sacks and stop the Illini behind the line of scrimmage more than they have averaged so far this year.

Extra Point | Sustain Offensive Drives

This is the last point but might be the most important to the improvement of the entire team for the rest of the season. Currently, Purdue is ranked 199th (133rd) in time of possession averaging just 26 minutes per game. That ranks them as the 6th lowest amongst power conference schools and that inability to control the clock doesn’t allow the defense to rest, make necessary adjustments, and inevitably limit possessions. It just isn’t a sustainable way to play football if your offense isn’t scoring huge amounts of points.

Purdue needs to at least hold the ball for half of the game which Purdue hasn’t done this entire season. Their high mark has been 29:31 in their first game of the season against Indiana State with their lowest mark being 19:45 against Oregon State.

Goal: 30:00 of time of possession

Players to Watch:

Luke Altmyer | Quarterback | Junior (Ole Miss) | 91-130 70% 1047 yards 11TD 1INT

Altmeyer was very good for the Illini last season following his transfer from Ole Miss but has clearly taken another step forward in his development in year two. Altmeyer ranks 14th in the country in completion percentage while averaging 209.4 yards per game passing. He is a steady and smart quarterback who has potential to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet to extend plays or gain yards off of scrambles. It’s been those types of quarterbacks that Purdue has under this staff made to look much, much better than they are.

Kaden Feagin | Running Back | Sophomore | 67 att 306 yards 3TD

Feagin isn’t a home run hitter like many of the big time names in college football but he is a capable back to be featured in Brett Bielema’s ball control offense. What allows Feagin to really give defenses fits is his ability can passes out of the backfield where he has 5 receptions for 37 yards. That threat really provides issues for opposing linebackers to vacate the middle of the field when he comes out of the backfield in passing situations.

Dylan Rosiek | Linebacker | Junior | 28 tackles 2 sacks 2 force fumbles 1 sack 1 TFL

Rosiek is another stellar linebacker that the Boilers will have to account for in both the run game and passing game. A thumper of a linebacker at 235 pounds, Rosiek is great in run stopping the run and has 2 tackles for loss and 1 sack for that work. Rosiek is also able to help in defending tight ends and running backs.

Prediction:

Can Purdue pull off an upset? Sure, they could if absolutely everything goes right for them. They haven’t proven this season to be able to overcome any sort of adversity and were able to hang around with Nebraska through the first three quarters because, simply put, things were going well. Will that happen against an Illini squad that looks like a program set to continue taking steps in the right direction and appears to be under great leadership with Brett Bielema? Not likely.

On the road in the B1G for this Purdue team likely won’t go well and for a program that seems to be floundering at what appears to be every aspect, it doesn’t bode well. Purdue being road dogs by 21.5 points to a program that should be our measuring stick should speak volumes about where the program is at. Purdue gets dropped in a game that looks eerily similar to last week at Wisconsin. Purdue’s offense continues to sputter, the defense doesn’t know how to play the scheme, and the special teams can only do so much as the only functional unit.

Also, word is spreading that Hudson Card may be out for Saturday’s game. If that is true, the reigns are turned over to Ryan Browne who, although a very talented young quarterback, is not the thrower that Card is. This game, that started out as a very difficult game, just became exponentially harder with an offense that will be even more limited.

Illinois: 44
Purdue: 13