The Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-5) vs. Oregon (6-0)

NCAA Football: Ohio State at Oregon — Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Purdue will look to play the part of Spoilermakers as the #2 Ducks visit Ross Ade Stadium on a Friday night

The Purdue Boilermakers (1-5) will welcome a #2 ranked Oregon Ducks program looking to make a major statement in their first season in the B1G. Following a big victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Ducks will travel to West Lafayette for a short week game on a Friday night. Typically that has spelled disaster for many teams as Purdue has played the role of Spoilermaker for so many top five ranked teams before, but this team is not those of years past.

Purdue looked just as they had in the previous four games in the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini as they struggled to just three points and less than 160 yards of offense. Even early in the second half, Illinois was able to stretch their lead to 24 points before a sudden flurry of points and defensive stops found Purdue leading by three points with under 2 minutes left before ultimately falling in overtime. Was that a resurgence for the Boilers for the back half of the season on the backs of coaching changes and a new quarterback or a last ditch effort and a bit of luck given a new offensive scheme was being rolled out? I’m not sure this game against a team that is one of the best in the country will give us any answers.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Point Stance.’

1 | Establish a Strong Running Game

The one thing Purdue has been able to do consistently throughout this season is running the ball. To beat one of the best teams in the country, it is going to need to pound the rock, control the clock, and keep the Oregon offense on the sideline. Can it do that? The jury is definitely still out since Browne provides a different dimension to Purdue’s running game.

In his first start, Browne was a dynamic playmaker in the run game grabbing 118 yards on 17 carries to go along with 102 yards from Devin Mockobee. The 239 yards on the ground, mostly gained in the second half, allowed the Boilermaker offense to gain traction through the air. Browne’s ability to escape the pocket and gain chunks of yards in the running game opened up the throwing lanes for 288 yards passing in the second half. That kind of duality from the offense is what they will need to upset the Ducks.

It will be interesting to see what kind of game Walters calls in his second as play caller and if they will look to utilize Browne in the run game, pound the rock with Mockobee and Love, or look to get the receivers involved with sweeps and quick screens. If they can get to 250 yards and balance that with an effective passing attack, the Boilers have a chance.

Goal: 250 Rushing Yards

2 | Stretch the Field with Downfield Throws

If the Boilers can establish the running game as explained above, it may force the Ducks to play more focused on the running game. If that’s the case, those big receivers Purdue has can use that size to their advantage. Leland Smith, Jahmal Edrine, Jaron Tibbs, and Shamar Rigby are all 6’3 or taller and getting one on one throws down the field where they can use that size is necessary.

Browne showed good touch on his throws down the field in his first start against the Illini and I expect more opportunities for him in that regard against Oregon. I doubt that Walters suddenly starts trying to hit big throws all of the time, but if Browne can connect on two or three of them 20+ down the field, it opens up the entire offense for the Boilers. In fact, if Purdue wants to get the upset against the second ranked Ducks, they’ll need the offense to work like it did in the second half against the Illini for the entire game.

Goal: Three completing passes of 20+ yards

3 | Set the Defensive Edge and Make Plays Behind the Line of Scrimmage

All too often this year this has been the broken record of Purdue’s defense: The opposing team runs to the outside, Purdue fails to set the edge, opposing ball carrier easily gets into the second level, Purdue can’t make a play and it ends up in a big play or touchdown. In the case of the Wisconsin and Notre Dame games, it was borderline insanity to continue watching a defense who appeared to have no clue how to do something most high school programs in Indiana can do.

Oregon is an offense that is predicated on speed and getting to the edge of the defense to put them in bad situations. That wholly doesn’t suit Purdue’s inability to stop a nosebleed this season. Purdue is currently giving up 46.8 points per game against FBS opponents with the last two weeks seeing Purdue giving up 52 and 50 points. When you include Notre Dame’s 66 points in week two due in large part to an ineffective defense being unable to set the edge, it doesn’t bode well.

Purdue is going to have to set the edge hard and make plays behind the line of scrimmage in the run game to put the Ducks in obvious passing downs. I’m not sure how much that helps Purdue considering they get called for what seems like defensive pass interference more than any other team in the country, but it can’t hurt. Right?

Goal: 10 tackles for loss (this includes sacks)

Extra Point | Get Dillon Gabriel Out of Rhythm

Easier said than done for a player that is completing 76.1% of his passes for 1808 yards with 13 touchdowns. This is likely going to be a team that is competing for the national championship and Gabriel is the main reason for that with those kinds of stats. Can Purdue really slow him down enough to get a win? It has one advantage: the defensive scheme.

Purdue does run a unique defensive scheme and it has, at times, given some good quarterbacks some fits to figure out. That is if the defense can play fundamental football, set the edge, and make plays in the backfield. Purdue can ill afford to just let Gabriel stand in a clean pocket and allow him to survey the field for a receiver that has likely beat one of the defensive backs (or Will Heldt who is being asked to defend receivers and backs down the field).

It isn’t out of the realm of possibility to get Gabriel to force him into a poor throwing percentage and that’s what Purdue needs to shoot for. Hope the scheme and guys like Jenkins and Heldt and apply pressure and force bad throws for players like Thieneman and Breedlove to get some turnovers. If that happens, in conjucture with those other points, Purdue has a chance.

Goal: 65% completion percentage and 2 INT’s

Players to Watch:

Dillon Gabriel | Quarterback | Senior (6th) | UCF, Oklahoma, Oregon | 153-201 76.1% 13TD 3INT

To give you an idea of how long Gabriel has been in college, he was in the same high school class at George Karlaftis. Gabriel has always been one of the better signal callers in his previous stops at UCF and Oklahoma, but seems to have turned it up a notch in Eugene for the Ducks. He is a capable runner but his usage in that aspect isn’t high and Purdue would probably be better served forcing him to make throws on the run rather than standing tall in the pocket. If Gabriel is given time, don’t be surprised to see him with 250 or more passing yards in the first half.

Jordan James | Running Back | Junior | 111 rush 667 yards 6.o ypc 6TD; 10rec 67 yards

One of the more dynamic backs in the country, James is having a stellar season but is being overshadowed in the B1G by Kaleb Johnson (Iowa-937 yards), Kyle Monangai (Rutgers-739 yards), and Jonah Coleman (Washington-681 yards). James is a dynamic, every down kind of back who can catch the ball well out of the backfield or step up in pass protection. This is probably the most talented running back Purdue will face all season and it doesn’t help that Oregon’s offense is predicated on getting to the edge. If Purdue can’t stop James and the Ducks rushing attack with 5 or 6, they’ll be forced to stack the box and allow Gabriel to get his big time receivers in one on one situations all game.

Matayo Uiagalelei | Defensive End | Sophomore | 18 tackles, 6 TKL, 4.5 sacks, 1 PD, 1 FF

The former top 50 national recruit from California turned a really good freshman campaign into what is turning out to be an even better sophomore one. Doubling the number of sacks in less than half the games, Uiagalelei uses his long 6’5 frame to keep tackles at bay while his athleticism allows him to beat them to the outside. For a Purdue team that has had trouble keeping their quarterback upright, stopping Uiagalelei is priority number 1 along the offensive line.

Prediction:

This isn’t likely to be a very pretty game. There is now a complete game for opponents to watch on not only Ryan Browne but also the tendencies of Ryan Walters as a play caller. Will there likely be some more things offensively that are different for Purdue? Sure, but at the end of the day Oregon is head and shoulders better at everything football wise than Purdue is. They are likely better at 21 of the 22 positions on the field (Thieneman likely being the only one) and Lanning is one of the best coaches in the country.

This likely plays out just as the other previous 5 games have with Purdue failing to score in the first quarter and the Ducks opening up a two or three touchdown lead midway through the 2nd quarter. Oregon isn’t Illinois and there won’t be a desperate comeback on a Friday night that’ll likely see the student section heading out to make an early entrance the Harry’s and Where Else.

Oregon: 52
Purdue: 10