The Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-7, 0-5) vs. Ohio State (7-1, 4-1)

The Boilers will enter Ohio Stadium as a nearly 40 point underdogs

The Purdue Boilermakers will travel to Columbus, Ohio to take on the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes in a game in which the Boilers will be 38 points underdogs on the road (as of 11/6/24). This is one of the largest point spreads the Boilermakers as they have struggled to do much of anything with consistency so far this year, outside of punting. Following last week’s disappointing loss to Northwestern at home many felt the Ryan Walters era had come to an end, no movement took place in regards to his employment. The fact that the AD has not come out and spoken in his defense, however, is likely a bigger indictment of the current status of the head coach and program.

Purdue is not very good at most of the things a successful team needs to be good at as the Boilers ranks 13th in the B1G in penalties per game, 16th in penalty yards per game, 17th in 3rd down conversions, 12th in 3rd down conversions allowed, 12th in rushing yards, 16th in passing yards, 15th in passing yards per game, 18th in forced fumbles, and 17th in interceptions. The steps backwards the program has taken from year one to year two for Walters has been perplexing and ones that have left many in the fanbase expecting a change following the season.

Ohio State, under Head Coach Ryan Day, continues to chug along as one of the premier programs in the B1G and nationally. Ranked second in the country in the initial College Football Playoff poll, the Buckeyes are vying to make their way to Indianapolis for a chance to win another B1G Championship to avenge their only loss on the season to the Oregon Ducks.

The opportunity is there to once again shock the college football world, so let’s get into ‘The Three Point Stance.’

1 | Get Off to a Fast Start

Purdue may be one of the worst teams in the country in the first quarter. In fact, Purdue scored their first points in the first quarter against an FBS program against Northwestern when they converted a 26 yard field goal. The means Purdue had gone 7 games plus 12 minutes of the Northwestern game to get points on the scoreboard in the first quarter. Even if you add in the touchdown the Boilers scored against Indiana State, that places Purdue 134th (of 134) in the country in first quarter scoring averaging .4 points. That is a full point behind both Air Force and Georgia State (1.4) and 2.3 points below Houston, the second lowest rated major conference team.

Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

On the flip side, Ohio State averages 8.3 points per first quarter with a season high of 21 against Western Michigan. The Buckeyes have yet to not score in the first quarter with their lowest of a single field goal coming against Michigan State. If Purdue wants a chance to win this game or even just keep it close, they can’t allow the Buckeyes to get their scoring into double digits. That was something they couldn’t prevent Northwestern from doing when Northwestern had scored just one touchdown in the first quarter all season.

2 | Limit the Explosive Plays

Ryan Walters’ defense is supposed to limit the big plays but that has been the opposite the last two seasons. This season the Boilers have given up big play after big play, notably into the edges in the run game and in the middle of the field in the passing game. Northwestern was able to convert multiple long 3rd downs, notably a 3rd and 16 that went for 27 yards. The Boilers also gave up a 51 yard touchdown run in the first quarter and back to back big plays in overtime that gave the Wildcats a touchdown and the win.

Purdue has to grind this game down and keep the scoring to a minimum. The best way to do that is, at the very least, make Ohio State earn each and every score. Forcing drives of five to seven minutes to score may not make much of a different in the outcome, it limits the overall score for the Buckeyes to attain. On the flipside, the Boilers just aren’t going to score twenty or more points against the Buckeyes. Explosive plays will lead to the Buckeyes putting up another giant number on the scoreboard this season where Purdue has already given up 66, 52, and 50 so far this season.

3 | Hudson Card Needs A Career Day

Card returned from injury against Northwestern and looked ok. I still don’t see the type of player that can lead a team to victories in the B1G when things aren’t going exactly his way and then the talent is, at least, even on the field. Cards high water mark throwing the ball in his career came against Syracuse in 2023 with 323 yards but if Card gets to 270 yards passing, he is currently 3-2 overall with 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Against the Buckeyes, though, he’ll need more than 300 yards, convert third downs at a high percentage, and not turn the ball over.

Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Card just hasn’t been the passer Purdue needs him to be as he has had a tendency to hold onto the ball that leads to sacks or forced passes into coverage. He needs to plant his foot and fire the ball with confidence that his receivers will make the plays necessary.

XP | Play Mistake Free Football

How many times have we seen the Boilers start a drive off with a false start or holding penalty to immediately get behind the sticks and out of sequence? How many times has there been a really positive play to convert a first down or get the ball moving and a penalty negates the momentum? Too many times but it has occurred in every single game this season. Looking back, the second half of the Indiana State game that had multiple false starts and holding calls on the offensive line should have been an indication of things to come.

Purdue doesn’t have the overall talent or coaching success to make up for mistakes that are of their own doing. The Boilers can’t afford turnovers, penalties, dropped passes, or missed tackles if they want any shot to keep this game close, let alone win.

Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Players to Watch:

Will Howard | Quarterback | Senior Transfer/Kansas St | 150-205, 73.2%, 1977 yards, 19TD, 5 INT; 115 yards rushing

After a great career at Kansas State, Howard hopped into the transfer portal and landed with the Buckeyes to keep them at an elite level for that position. Howard has proven capable as a runner but his biggest threat is in the passing game where he is completing 73.2% of his passes to a slew of big time receivers. Howard does have a bit of a propensity to turn it over with 5 interceptions and a big fumble through the end zone against Penn State.

Jeremiah Smith | Wide Receiver | Freshman | 39 rec, 678 yards, 17.4 avr, 8 TD; 2 car, 33 yards, 1 TD

Smith is the best receiver at Ohio State with a roster that has more blue chip recruits at the position than anywhere else in the country. He also happens to be a true freshman. Smith, at 6’3 and 215, is a big receiver with track speed to get behind the defense. His spectacular catches this season have made for multiple viral moments.

J.T. Tuiomoloau | Defensive End | Senior | 26 tackles, 9TFL’s, 4.5 sacks

It’s no secret that Purdue’s offensive line has struggled at times to keep the QB upright and Tuiomoloau specializes as one of the best defensive ends in the country. He’ll end up being a late first round to early third round draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Prediction:

I have very little faith that this game isn’t ‘over’ by the end of the first quarter. I think it is more likely Purdue is down 21-0 than most any other possibility. Purdue has talent but that talent is constantly either injured, not prepared well enough, or the scheme just doesn’t suit what the players can do. That has led to some embarrassing losses this season against Notre Dame (66-7), Wisconsin (52-6), Oregon (35-0), and Northwestern (26-20, OT). Yes, the Oregon game was embarrassing because that was about as relaxed of a game as an opponent could play while still winning 35-0 (they had players playing rock, paper, scissors during the the game with fans behind them).

Ohio State has this game and Northwestern before what arguably might be the biggest game of the B1G season against Indiana at home. Coming off the big victory against Penn State on the road, it would be a classic scenario for a trap game if Purdue wasn’t comically bad this season. How bad have they been? Let’s compare 2013’s 1-11 season to 2024’s likely 1-11 season. It’s not quite as bad but knowing what we know now, is it really much to say it is marginally better than the worst season in Purdue football history?

Ohio State: 56
Purdue: 7