The Three Point Stance: Purdue (1-9) vs. Michigan State (4-6)

Purdue is a 13.5 point underdog against the struggling Spartans in East Lansing

The 2024 football season is nearing a merciful end as the Purdue Boilermakers will head north to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Although Purdue will just miss out on a bowl game this season, the Spartans are still very much so in the drivers seat to get to the six game threshold under first year head coach Jonathan Smith if they can win their final two games. Those games come against the Boilers and Rutgers.

Michigan State is led by Oregon State transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles who transferred with Jonathan Smith. Chiles is more of a threat with his legs than his arms at this point in his career but those are the quarterbacks that appear to give the Boilers the biggest issues. Chiles is completing just 61% of his passes and has 10 touchdowns to 11 interceptions on the season. He does have over 200 total yards rushing and his ability to extend plays outside the pocket and get to the edge quickly enhances the biggest weaknesses that Purdue’s defense has had all season.

Purdue has struggled to a 1-9 season under second year head coach Ryan Walters who, despite rumors that have stated he may return next season, has not exactly received a vote of confidence yet from Athletic Director Mike Bobinski. The Boilers have seemingly been out-schemed in most of their games while currently being outscored by an average of 29.6 points per game (good for second to last in the country). Although that tells a major part of the story, it goes beyond that as the team ranks 128th in total offense (289.2), 132nd in points per game (13.7), 131st in total defense (487.8), and 133rd in scoring defense (43.2). There are 134 teams total in FBS this season.

Let’s try to figure out what Purdue needs to do have a shot to win on the road:

1 | Establish the Run….and then Keep Running the Ball

The offense has been a joke all season and the firing of Graham Harrell has done very little to improve the unit. Yes, there was the sudden outburst at Illinois but the fact that has not been replicated in the slightest since then tells a story that was a complete aberration. The passing attack under what was supposed to be a heralded QB in Hudson Card has managed just 164 yards per game through the air (121st) against FBS opponents. Against all opponents, it goes up to 181.1 yards per game which would be lowest total for a Purdue team since 2010 when they averaged 150.8 but still won 4 games that season.

Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Mockobee and Love make for a solid duo of running backs but have not been given ample opportunities to control a game. For instance, on the first play of the game against Penn State, Mockobee was able to rush for 8 yards but Walters called four straight passes. In a game that you needed to control the clock and make the game shorter, Purdue ran the ball just 28 times. That isn’t acceptable.

Mockobee is a running back that can go get you 100 yards most every game if provided the opportunities while Love has shown his ability to break into the open field for large chunks of yards. Getting Browne more snaps in the option and RPO game can help as well. Purdue, if it wants to win this game, will likely need to combine for 35 carries or more.

2 | Control the Line of Scrimmage and Seal the Edges on Defense

This has been probably the worst part of the defense from a scheme and fundamental aspect this season. All too often we see the Purdue defense lose containment on the outside to running backs and quarterbacks in both the run game and pass game and the opposing offense grabs big chunks of yards that puts the defense on their heels and they struggle to recover.

This has been an issues since that first game against Syracuse last season where their quarterback frequently broke off long runs but was covered up with the a players of the caliber of Nic Scourton and Kydran Jenkins on the edges. That isn’t the case this season and it is showing up on a weekly basis as the scheme has not been changed for the personnel they have on the roster.

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The last two games, the opposing offense has come out and immediately tested the edges of the defense and I suspect MSU will do the same. Chiles is a quarterback that can exploit that weakness so look to MSU to get him on the edge in the running game or to slip a running back or tight end into the flat. It is doubtful changes are made to the scheme or play calling at this point in the season but if they aren’t, Purdue will struggle to slow down a very average offense like the did against Northwestern.

3 | Win the Turnover Margin Battle

For the first time this season, Purdue will face a team that actually has a worse turnover margin than they do. The Spartans will enter the game with a -9 turnover margin that places them 121st in the country. The Boilers aren’t much better at -7 and 116th but it is a stat where the Boilers do have the advantage. That means it is something they could exploit to keep them in the game more.

Chiles has been turnover prone this season with 11 interceptions and have lost 7 fumbles of their own for 18 total turnovers while only getting 9 turnovers of their own. That’s not a great number but is something Purdue could possibly do with the different defense they do run. Will they be able to take advantage? We will see but if Purdue can get two or three turnovers while not turning it over themselves, they at least give themselves more chances to score points while limiting the Spartans overall scoring opportunities.

4 | Let’s Get Weird

Listen, Purdue isn’t going to go to a bowl game and it seems the roster is going to flee to other places in the off season. What can a staff do to keep the players and roster engaged? Get weird!

Why not come out in a flexbone look with Mockobee and Merriweather at wings and Reggie Love at the running back position with Ryan Browne at quarterback. Run some triple option and misdirection. Try putting Antonio Stevens at inside linebacker since everyone else has proven they aren’t capable of making plays there. See what some of the freshman like Marcos Davila and Tayvion Galloway who haven’t gotten an opportunity yet. Run a trick play on first down of every drive.

It may not be pretty but truly, what’s the difference between getting beat by 30 or 50? Either way, it’s still a dominating loss but at least it looks as though the staff is trying to find something that works instead of whatever it is they are currently doing. I’m not saying the staff isn’t trying to win games because that would be disingenuous and wrong, but you can’t tell me at this point many of the players on the roster and assistant coaches aren’t looking outward toward other opportunities rather than fully on the opponent in front of them. At this would bring their attention span more focused on the here and now.

Players to Watch:

Aidan Chiles | Quarterback | Sophomore | 6’3 217 | 164-269 61% 2106 10 TD 11 INT; 210 rush yards 3 TD

Chiles has all of the physical gifts you could want in a big time, talented quarterback. He still make some mistakes you would expect from a young quarterback but the Spartans have a player that can go and win them games. Chiles is a smooth operator in the pocket and can escape and drive defenses crazy extending plays with his legs or tucking and running for large chunks. Purdue will have a difficult time containing a playmaking QB like this.

Nick Marsh | Receiver | Freshman | 6’3 208 | 37 rec 611 yards 3TD

Purdue has struggled in the defensive secondary when they have been expected to play man concepts against high level receivers. That would be the case for most defenses but without any sort of consistent pressure from the defensive line, a receiver like Marsh will be able to get open and make big plays. Marsh has the speed to take the top off the defense but also the size to break weak tackles and make big plays.

Jordan Turner | Linebacker | Senior-Transfer from Wisconsin | 6’1 231 | 57 tackles, 28 solo, 9TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT

The Spartans’ defensive leader, Turner leads the team in total tackles, solo tackles, sacks, and tackles for loss. Against an offense that has struggled to consistently create a clean pocket for the quarterbacks and a scheme that hasn’t been able to help receivers get open, Turner could be in for a big day.

Prediction:

Two games left in this season in what will likely end up being one of the worst seasons in Purdue football history. When looking at this season, this was a schedule that a competitive team could have gotten to 5 or even 6 wins. Don’t believe me?

Indiana State: FCS
Oregon State: 4-6
Northwestern: 4-6; lost in OT
Nebraska: 5-5
Illinois: 7-3; lost in OT
Michigan State: 4-6

There is 6 wins and a bowl game that would have shown great growth in Walters’ second season. Instead, we have witnessed drubbings and bad decisions from this staff on a weekly basis. I doubt that for game 11 things suddenly get figured out and Purdue comes out with the puzzle figured out.

Rumors are swirling of major players already making their intentions known to transfer out at seasons end and that the locker room is not a positive place. When it has widely been known that the two options at this point is the entire staff being replaced or the head coach being fired, those assistant coaches suddenly start looking outward more than inward.

Michigan State is a 13.5 point favorite and honestly I don’t think that is enough. They have a quarterback who might be the most athletic and mobile in the B1G and the defense has struggled all season to contain anything on the edges. This game may be more competitive and not be over in the first quarter, but I doubt Purdue is able to beat the spread (much less MSU).

Michigan State: 37

Purdue: 14