The Three Pointer: #16 Purdue (8-3) vs. #2 Auburn (9-1)

The Boilers travel to Birmingham to take on Bruce Pearl and the Tigers

The Purdue Boilermakers will head south to Birmingham to play a ‘neutral’ site game against the Auburn Tigers led by Bruce Pearl and national player of the year front runner Johnie Broom. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Broom suffered a shoulder injury in their last game that saw him on the bench in street clothes and his arm in a sling. That is a major development for a player that is averaging 18.1 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.7 blocks. Auburn is still a very good team without Broom but a player of that caliber raises the ceiling for everyone around them.

Even without Broom, the Tigers employ a deep roster that doesn’t feature anyone playing more than 27.3 minutes per game. That kind of depth could give Purdue fits but not having to defend a national player of the year caliber talent in the post and someone of his shot blocking ability helps Purdue. It also may inhibit how Auburn defends Purdue and they may look to switch five ways, which may benefit Smith and Kaufman-Renn if ball movement can be crisp and quick.

The Boilers are going to need to be better in a number of different areas against the #2 ranked team in the country, most notably protecting the ball and rebounding. That will fall squarely on the shoulders of Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, who will need to limit their turnovers and rebound to keep the game close for the Boilers. When those two have played well and limited their own turnovers, Purdue has typically played well enough to beat anyone. Against PSU, Marquette, and Texas A&M, they did not.

Let’s get into the ‘The Three Pointer!’

1 | Limit the Turnovers

As I said in a previous one of these, limiting the turnovers is going to be the highest of priorities until the most important of players don’t collectively lose their minds and turn the ball over a bunch of times. Purdue already has six games with 13 or more turnovers with the three losses averaging 17. That’s just not a way to play the game against good to great competition when the team is forcing just an average of 10.8 per game. Even more frustrating is that two of the three games saw opponents turn the ball over 16 times themselves (Texas A&M and Penn State).

Purdue has got to have their best players not turn the ball over 8 or more times between the two of them, they just can’t. Braden Smith is too good of a player to have two games of 6 turnovers and TKR is too good in the post to have games of 7, 5, and 4. Purdue can’t have their best players who have the ball in their hands the most being the careless and loose with the ball. They are capable of playing clean games with minimal or even zero turnovers but seem to be pressured into poor decisions when they feel pressure to score or make something happen.

What do the Boilers need to do? First off, they just need to relax. Secondly, though, they need the other players around them to continue moving off the ball and making themselves available when Smith or TKR have the ball in their hands. They seemingly still are ‘Edey’d’ in that they are standing around when those two get the ball and expect them to just do something. They are great players but they aren’t Edey and need help.

10 turnovers is the standard for this team and they should, quite frankly, be at 8 or less per game. They are capable of that.

2 | Handle the Auburn Pressure on Defense

Auburn is going to come into this game as the 15th rated effective field goal percentage defense in the country at just 43.9%. That is right spots higher than Texas A&M and we all saw how much the Aggies just frustrated the Boilers in to a bad offensive performance. Auburn has one of the best defenses in the country and that high pressure defense is something Bruce Pearl has been known for at all of his stops.

Auburn is currently forcing just 11.3 turnovers per game but they are only turning it over 8.9 times themselves. Where their top notch defense comes from is blocking shots (6.5 per game), allowing just 31.2% shooting from behind the arc, and shooting just 38.9% from the field. Those are all very high marks in college basketball this season.

Smith is going to need help handling that pressure with good off ball movement and a change in how the Boilers initiate offense. Many times opponents are doubling Smith off the high ball screen and he isn’t getting the ball out of his hands fast enough to take advantage of the rotations. It’s a lot easier to make those passes to a 7’4 big man who is a great passer to take advantage but when you are 6’ (let’s be honest, Smith is probably 5’10), it makes it hard to throw over the top when you don’t have an angle to pass to the corner.

3 | Don’t Allow Any Big Runs

Purdue hasn’t handled the pressure of playing on the road well this season. Their three losses have come away from Mackey Arena and have allowed big runs by each of their opponents. Against Auburn, who’s offense is rated #1 by Kenpom, Purdue can’t afford to allow the Tigers runs of 10+. That’s a recipe for disaster and likely will lead to another blowout loss for a program that hasn’t suffered many of those prior to this season.

Purdue has tended to play very even keeled this season emotionally but I feel like they have not done a good job of matching the intensity and emotions of their opponents. At this level of basketball against opponents like Purdue will face from here on out, they can’t rely on their opponent to bring out their aggressiveness and intensity. It just doesn’t work that way as you are always reacting rather than being the aggressor. In short, Purdue needs to be the one throwing punches and not simply waiting to counter punching.

And 1 | Find Fletcher Opportunities for Open Threes

With Loyer starting the way that he did from behind the arc and without the dominant big man inside, teams have been able to really focus on taking him out of the game behind the arc. To his credit, he has found other ways to score through dribble drives and shot fakes to get into the lane and midrange jumpers. He does, however, need help from his teammates to get him those open shots from behind the arc.

The way this can happen is off ball movement by the other four players so that Loyer can have catch-and-shoot opportunities. He can also come off more screens that can open up slips for other players and once that happens, it’ll allow him the chance to catch and shoot more.

Players to Watch

Johni Broom | Forward | 6’10 235lb | 18.1 Pts, 11.5 Reb, 3.5 Ast

Broom suffered a shoulder injury in their previous game and sat out the second half of that victory. The extent of that injury still isn’t known but Broom has gone through warmups so far today. With Broom or without Broom, Purdue is going to have to play a great game to get a victory as the Tigers have 5 other players that average in double figures with one more at 8.4. Broom is the obvious primary scoring threat but Auburn is still a top 10 team without him.

Tehaad Pettiford | Guard | 6’1 180ln | 10.7 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 2.7 Ast, 43.6% 3pt

Pettiford is the primary ball handler for the Tigers and he is a threat to score from all over the court. He only averages 1.4 turnovers per game so the key will be keeping him in front making it difficult for him to initiate offense. The Tigers share the load when it comes to assists as five players average 2.2 or more per game but Pettiford has already scored 21 and 20 as a true freshman this season. Broom is going to get his but Purdue can’t afford a guy like Pettiford going to 20 or more.

Prediction:

Even if this one was at Mackey Arena, I probably wouldn’t be picking the Boilers. Auburn and Tennessee have looked like the best teams in the country this year and although I think Purdue can be right there with them, they haven’t played like it outside of the Alabama game. Purdue can win this game playing their best game but haven’t shown an ability to take that game with them on the road.

The big factor will be Broom’s ability to play or be effective if he does. Even without him, the Tigers have one of the most talented rosters up and down in college basketball. On the road in Birmingham means this is a glorified home game for the Tigers much like when Purdue plays in Indy. Unfortunately, I just don’t see this one going Purdue’s way.

Auburn will frustrate the Purdue offense into being slow and stagnant while their turnovers will lead to easy transition buckets. This is a game where Purdue needs to play quicker to not allow their opponent’s defense to get set but we haven’t seen that enough from Purdue yet and are actually playing at a slower pace than they did with Edey. That isn’t the formula for THIS Purdue team to win games like this.

Auburn: 84
Purdue: 71