The Three Pointer: Purdue (1-0) vs. Northern Kentucky (0-1)

The Boilers hope for a tune-up before a three game stretch against 2024 NCAA Tourney teams

The second game of the 2024-2025 season finds the Purdue Boilermakers taking on the Northern Kentucky Norsemen inside Mackey Arena for an opportunity to clean up some mistakes from their victory against Texas A&M-CC. The Norsemen are coming off an 18-15 (12-8) season in the Horizon League while finishing 5th but return 100% of their scoring and minutes player from last season which may provide a good, quality test from the Boilers to face a veteran squad. NKU played Florida State in their first game and lost 75-62 while having 22 turnovers and shooting just 7-28 (25%) from behind the arc.

Purdue won their first game of the season but not without some drama as the Boilers had built a 16 point lead at halftime but saw it reduced all the way down to just 3 with 6:43 left in the second half. The Boilers then outscored the Islanders 20-6 over that final stretch of the game and eventually won 90-73, however the concerns do lay thick with a new set of freshman being expected to provide some valuable contributions.

Those freshman did provide an immense amount of key moments that can be viewed as very promising moving forward. CJ Cox flashed a tough, bulldog mentality as an on ball defender while starters Daniel Jacobsen and Gicarri Harris gave the Boilers just what they needed. Jacobsen had 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks in 25 minutes of action while Harris contributed 5 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and a +12 in 23 minutes while also being the primary on-ball defender against the opponent’s point guard.

Enough of a review from last game. Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer!’

1 | Cut Down the Turnovers

This is probably the most glaring issue for the Boilers and one that will likely lead many teams early in the season to challenge them on the defensive end. Purdue had 16 turnovers, 10 of which came from their two most important pieces in Smith and TKR. Some of those turnovers were of the bad variety that led directly to easy points as the Islanders turned them into 19 points.

Smith’s six turnovers are really inexcusable from a point guard with that much high end ability and experience. What was really concerning was him reverting back to his freshman season of jumping before he knows where he wants to go with the ball and leading to some bad passes. When Smith plays with both feet on the ground and attacks more into the middle of the lane, he scores more often and provides his teammates with better looks offensively.

Outside of Smith and TKR, no other player had more than 1 turnover. That’s an encouraging sign, especially given Harris, Jacobsen, and Cox will be relied upon heavily this season. TKR and Smith should not be combining for more than 4 turnovers a piece this season. Doing that puts Purdue right at 10 which is where they should be for every game.

2 | Play With Tempo and Pace

Purdue really started out both halves sluggishly and it took some time for them to really get going. When they did, it was really beautiful basketball to watch. When it did finally happen, it was because Purdue was playing with more tempo and pace on the offensive end and not letting the defense get their feet set to defend them.

This was really apparent in the final 8 minutes of the game when Smith finally began to be more aggressive in his attack on the basket by scoring 9 of his 12 points and dishing out 3 of his 15 assists. Purdue doesn’t have the big man in the middle to wipe things away on defense and just grind away on the offensive end, so going a bit quicker with the athletes Purdue has is to their advantage. Purdue looking to grab more possessions in games that go a bit quicker may be more to their advantage, especially when they are flooded with the shooters they have on the roster.

3 | Find a Unique Lineup to Change Things Up

There was a really interesting lineup that found its way onto the floor against A&M-CC: Smith, Cox, Colvin, Heide, and Burgess. That might be one of the more athletic lineups Painter has rolled out at any point in time and is also a group that can easily get out into transition. You have both ball handlers in the lineup with Colvin and Heide who are both shot makers along with being able to finish in transition. Adding Burgess to this lineup is just the cherry on top as a young big man who, at 6’11 and 244 still has the size to defend most low post players while being able to take advantage of them in the transition game.

Is there another look at this line-up or something similar? I’d like to hope so because when Purdue starts getting into transition and running a team into the ground, that lineup change could really flip things in their favor from a solid run into burying a team suddenly. In that regard, I would love to see the following lineup: Smith, Loyer, Colvin, TKR, Burgess. I’m not sure of the viability of this lineup but the rationale is that you place your two best three point shooters off the catch with Smith. Pairing those three with TKR and Burgess seems like a good option as both are capable shooters from outside but really athletic enough to roll hard to the rim after a screen. In this lineup, you also don’t lose a lot on the defensive end as TKR and Burgess can switch at the 4 and 5 while maintaining an on ball defender in Colvin to spell Smith in that regard.

Really interesting lineup of Burgess, Cox, Colvin, Heide, and Smith. That’s an extremely athletic grouping.

— Jed Wilkinson (@PurdueWilkie) November 4, 2024

And 1 | An Aggressive Braden Smith is the Best Braden Smith

Smith really appeared to struggle with A&M-CC’s aggressive way to defend the high on-ball screen that has become a staple in the Purdue offense to initiate offense. Some of that might be Smith trying to get his teammates engaged and run offense, some of that might be not having Edey there to immediately re-screen off that hard hedge, or it might have been Smith just not being aggressive enough in his attack of that hedge. I think it was probably a little bit of all three mixed in at times for the junior point guard.

Smith really defaulted to his teammates until very late in the game when he finally appeared exasperated in their inability to put the Islanders away. In the final 8:05 of the game, Smith scored 9 points, 3 assists, and had just 1 turnover. It was in that final 8:05 that Purdue saw their lead shrink to a low of just three points but finally end at seventeen with Smith leading a more up tempo Purdue offense and one where he was finally looking for his own offense. That is what he looked like against Creighton in the first exhibition.

One way Smith can really help himself is what Lance Jones showed last season when teams started hedging hard to redirect the guards further out. When the hard hedge shows, Smith needs to split through the middle which immediately gives Purdue the advantage with Smith going downhill toward the bucket. With his passing and scoring ability at all levels, once or twice from Smith doing that will lead to a flatter and less aggressive hedge for Smith and the Boilers to manufacture their offense from.

Players to Watch

Dilling came to Northern Kentucky from Division II Northern State where he averaged 18.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while being named to his conferences second team. The 6’4, 190 pound guard leads the Norsemen in scoring after just one game so far this season.

It might seem a bit silly to put a guy down who only averaged 8 points and 2 rebounds as a player to watch but at 6’9 and 215lbs he is the biggest player the Norsemen have in their lineup. They do have a 7’ true freshman on the roster but he failed to log any minutes in their first game of the season so it would be surprising to see him log minutes. The forward also doesn’t appear to be a viable threat behind the arc that would cause Purdue some problems in that regard for Berg and Jacobsen.

Prediction:

This might end up being the most lopsided of games for the Boilers in the non-conference, although Toledo 183rd) is currently ranked lower according to Kenpom. The Norsemen are currently rated 170th. That’s really, really eye opening considering our brethren to the south currently have Kenpom opponents of 315th, 340th, 175th, 128th, 164th, 151st, 168th, 86th, and 54th on the non-conference schedule. Purdue’s would be 216th, 170th, 102nd, 5th, 16th, 159th, 51st, 18th, 2nd, and 183rd. Needless to say, Purdue needs to take advantage of the games where they can work things out before getting to these games where they need to be performing at a high level.

Cleaning up the issues that sprang up in game one shouldn’t be an issue for a veteran led team like Purdue this year but grabbing a big lead shouldn’t lead to lackadaisical effort either. This is a perfect game for the Boilers leading into a three game stretch that could mean the difference of multiple seed lines come Selection Sunday. Beating Alabama, Marquette, and Yale are the types of victories that separate teams from the 2 and 4 lines.

Smith is more aggressive while Loyer continues to be an absolute flamethrower from deep and TKR dominates inside.

Purdue: 96
Northern Kentucky: 66