The Three Pointer: Purdue (10-4) vs. Northwestern (10-4)

The Boilers will take on the team that has beaten them and played them tougher than any other over the last 4 seasons.

Following their first road victory of the season that saw a 53 point outburst in the second half, the Purdue Boilermakers return back to the friendly confines of Mackey Arena to take on the Northwestern Wildcats. A program that has been the proverbial thorn in their side over the last four season, the Wildcats come into this game with the same 10-4 record and hold a massive win over the Illinois Fighting Illini in overtime early in December. Their four losses have come to Kenpom top 75 opponents Dayton, Butler, Iowa, and Penn State while the Boilers’ losses have come to #9 Marquette, #38 Penn State, #16 Texas A&M, and #1 Auburn.

One of the biggest factors in looking at what the Wildcats and Boilers have done is that that Northwestern has lost by an average of just 3 points in their four losses while Purdue’s has been 12.75. The Boilers seem to be a very volatile team this season that can put up a big number one half while following it up or having it proceed at bad half like the 28 they had against Minnesota.

Northwestern enters the game as sort of a reverse image of the Boilers with an offense that is ranked 72nd and a defense ranked 21st on Kenpom whereas Purdue is 8th offensively and 75th defensively. This is typically where Purdue has gotten themselves in trouble against the Northwestern when they struggle to score while allowing the Wildcat offense to play much better than their average.

Let’s jump into ‘The Three Pointer!’

1 | Limiting Turnovers are Key

We all saw how difficult it can be to beat Purdue when they simply don’t turn the ball over. Against Minnesota, the Boilers had only three turnovers and those were all committed in the first half. That meant that while Purdue struggled with some foul issues and poor shooting, they weren’t giving Minnesota free possessions and easy buckets off turnovers. That’s key for a Purdue team that can seemingly get stuck in neutral for long stretches.

That also meant that when Purdue did get the offense moving in the right direction, they threw up a big number in the second half to run away with a road victory in the always difficult B1G. Purdue didn’t turn the ball over a single time the second half and that led to a 1.767 points per possession and 9-17 from behind the arc.

When the Boilers aren’t beating themselves their efficiency can take over a game over the course of forty minutes. Those 3 turnovers for an entire game tie a program low while the 21 to 3 assist to turnover ratio (7 to 1) was also a program best.

2 | Play More Up Tempo

Not sure it was possible but Northwestern actually plays at a slower overall tempo than Purdue does according to Kenpom’s adjusted tempo numbers. Purdue is rated 309th overall while Northwestern is 312th. Without star point guard Boo Buie anymore, I don’t think Northwestern is built to get up and down the floor and into transition and they aren’t as well rounded of an offensive unit. That being said, they have two guys averaging 20 points per game in Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli who do the heavy lifting averaging 36.4 and 37 minutes per game, respectively.

In the second half against Minnesota, the offense seemed to come alive with some adjustments made to the high ball screen that allowed TKR to get some of those push shots of his from inside the lane which forced the defense to adjust. When that happened, the offense just seemed to work better but they also seemed to want to get a second ball handler on the floor more by starting CJ Cox alongside Smith. That led to Cox’s most minutes in a game this season at 21 but they can really lean on him more as he is a bit more aggressive with the ball in his hands while not being turnover prone.

Smith is an absolute maestro with the ball in his hands and even more so when the tempo kicks up more and more. That’s why, when you go back and rewatch Purdue this season, they seem to really make other teams uncomfortable when the game gets to be more fluid and not stuck in a halfcourt slugfest. Purdue seems to have a unique ability to maintain a high efficiency level when the tempo ramps up, which would serve them well against Northwestern who is going to try and dirty the game up and play as slow as possible.

Northwestern is going to want to win this game with neither team scoring above 72 points. Purdue can, with their better athletes and better shooters, run Northwestern out of Mackey Arena if they just look to speed up their tempo more.

3 | Try to Limit One of the Main Scoring Pieces

As mentioned previously, Northwestern boasts the only team in the entire country with two plasters averaging 20 or more points per game in Barnhizer and Martinelli. Both of those players are unique players who are big for their positions with Martinelli being a 6’7 small forward and Barnhizer really a 6’6 guard built more like a power forward. The thing is, I’m not sure Purdue is built defensively to really take away both of those players at once and force everyone else to beat them and that’s not really how Purdue has defended other teams lately.

Purdue will likely look at their own roster construction and determine where they can best adjust to limit one of these players enough to force them into being inefficient (which would spill over onto the entire team) or just working to deny what they both do best. My guess would be to limit what each does well and forcing them to beat you from where they aren’t their best. For Martinelli, that would be taking away his three point shot where he is shooting 45.5% and forcing him to his right instead of allowing him to use his dominant left hand. He is also lacking overall athleticism which is an area that should help Colvin and Heide keep him in front of them and simply make life difficult for him.

For Barnhizer, he can be prone to some turnovers as he is averaging a team high 2.1 per game with two games of 4 already this season. He also isn’t an elite shooter from behind the arc at just 34% but he makes up for a lack of athleticism and overall shooting ability by playing at an elite effort level for every minute he is on the floor. Where Barnhizer does excel is getting to the free throw line and cashing in at 82.5% when he is able to get into the lane and use his size to create mismatches and pass over shorter defenders.

Outside of those two, Northwestern has Fairfield transfer 5th year senior Jalen Leach who is averaging 13.6 points per game. He isn’t particularly scary from behind the arc as a career 32.5% shooter but does have two 20+ point games already this season for Northwestern. I’m less concerned about him than I am about Barnhizer and Martinelli as they have both proven their ability for big games in big moments throughout their careers.

And 1 | Set the Tone for Physicality & Make Northwestern Play Boilerball

The loss of Zach Edey was obviously going to hurt Purdue from a production standpoint but what he, Mason Gillis, and Lance Jones brought to the roster last season was a toughness that didn’t need to be brought out by another team. This season it seems Purdue needs the opponent to play chippy and force Purdue into playing aggressive but that often has put Purdue in bad situations. You would rather force the opponent to counter and make them feel off balance but Purdue has seemingly struggled with that at times this season. This is a game where Purdue NEEDS to come out swinging and establish themselves as the aggressor and the more physical team.

That’s been the formula for Northwestern over the last several years to beat and push Purdue more than any other program. Northwestern, along with Rutgers, has come out and punched Purdue square in the nose and put them on their heels. That hasn’t always led to Purdue being able to ever get their footing and has led to some bad losses as the #1 team in the country. It’s a bad habit that has seemingly become a more glaring problem without those three setting the tone for Purdue (it’s evident if you have seen Edey play in the NBA this season and standup to perennial idiot Dramond Green).

Mackey will be without the entire Paint Crew and can ill afford to let a malaise fall over the home crowd that may be even more thinned out due to a pending winter storm. Purdue has to come out and be the aggressor and force the game to be played on their terms.

Players to Watch

Nick Martinelli | Junior | Forward | 20.1pts, 5.7reb, 1.7 ast, 45.5% 3pt

Martinelli isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but the lefty is one of the better overall offensive players in the conference. With his 6’10+ wingspan, the lengthy forward can get into the lane using his dominant left hand where he can shoot over defenders or find shooters and slashers from behind the arc. This is going to be the most difficult assignment for the Boilers.

Brooks Barnhizer | Senior | Guard | 20.1pts, 9.6reb, 4.4ast, 2.7stl

The Lafayette Jefferson High School product has continued an incredibly development from the time he left town and arrived at Northwestern. Known as a high scorer in high school, the big guard has added a defensive mindset, physicality, and high end motor that will likely find him on one of the all conference teams this season. Martinelli is the high end scorer but Barnhizer is really the engine that drives the Wildcats this season. When he is on the floor and playing well alongside Martinelli, they can beat anyone in the country (see Illini victory).

Prediction

This is likely going to be a slugfest in the same manner that each of the last several matchups has been. Purdue seems to have found a bit of traction with some adjustments to the way their offense is initiated and I’m not sure Northwestern has the high level of guard play overall to beat a team like Purdue on the road. If Purdue gets more games like it got from Caleb Furst against Minnesota (11 points and 6 rebounds), suddenly Purdue has their piece outside of their big three to become an elite offensive team.

Smith and Loyer are the players who can throw up a big number on a team quickly in the span of a few minutes (see Minnesota second half) but this is a game where TKR can dominate. Northwestern has a solid but not overly impressive big man in Mathew Nicolson who also happens to be a bit foul prone at times. If Purdue can get TKR isolated on him, TKR should have another banner day.

Boilers win another important one that may end up being as important of a home win as any other given there isn’t a return game in the future in Evanston where the Wildcats are good enough to beat anyone.

Boilers: 75
Northwestern: 71