The Three Pointer: Purdue (11-4) vs. Rutgers (8-7)

The Boilers will travel to the Trapezoid of Terror to take on a struggling team that still has two likely top-5 lottery picks in the upcoming NBA Draft

Following an impressive victory at home against the Northwestern Wildcats, the Purdue Boilermakers will take to the road and head east to face the Rutgers Scarlett Knights. The trip to New Jersey has not been kind to the Boilers over the last several seasons as Purdue is just 1-3 over the last four meetings in Piscataway at the ‘Trapezoid of Terror.’ In fact, Purdue is just 4-5 over the last nine meetings overall with the Scarlett Knights.

Rutgers lost a lot of talent over the last several seasons to transfers and the NBA but they surprised many around the basketball world by signing Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, the #2 and #3 players nationally according to 247 Sports. That is exponentially higher than their previous highest commit which was #62 rated Cliff Omoruyi in the 2020 class (dating back to the 1999 class according to 247 Sports). Those two true freshman have shown to be immensely talented but the team has struggled to an 8-7 record overall. They have a solid win against Penn State but have lost games to Alabama (95-90) and Texas A&M (81-77) as shared opponents of Purdue’s. They have also lost to Kennesaw St. and Princeton to go with two straight B1G losses to Indiana and Wisconsin. This is, however, still a very dangerous team.

Rutgers is very similar in their offensive makeup in that both Harper and Bailey account for a high percentage of the output. Harper averages 20.1 points per game with Bailey chips in 19.1 with both also grabbing 5.2 and 7.6 rebounds, respectively. Outside of those two, no other players for Rutgers score more than 7.7 points per game but they do feature some players that shoot well from the outside like Tyson Acuff (37.8%), PJ Haynes (35.9%), and Zach Martini (35.5%) to go along with Harper’s 36.8% and Bailey’s 33.9%). Those averages would not place any of Rutgers’ players inside the top 7 at Purdue, however.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Don’t Let a Third Scorer Hurt You

Although I mentioned that Rutgers is constructed similarly to Northwestern, Harper and Bailey are a massive step up in terms of their potential and pose some serious issues for Purdue’s defense. Where Martinelli and Barnhizer are fringe NBA players who are very good within their system, Harper and Bailey are true three level scorers that will be difficult to slow down or limit most nights. So what should Purdue do?

Best guess is that CJ Cox is going to get the job of defending Dylan Harper early on with Caleb Furst likely getting the nod against Ace Bailey. However, Purdue at least has some options to throw at Harper with Colvin, Heide, and Harris on the bench. With Ace Bailey, I’m not sure Purdue has someone to really defend him and Pikiell has shown a propensity to just let one player kill a bad matchup for a defense.

Bailey, at 6’10 and 200 pounds, is a matchup nightmare and Purdue is going to have to double and possibly triple team him at times. That means Purdue can’t afford to allow a third scorer to get loose and put up a big number. Purdue’s communication and rotations have steadily improved throughout the season but seemingly took a major jump forward against Northwestern, That is the kind of attention to detail and effort Purdue will need to grab a victory on the road.

2 | Aggressive Braden is the Best Braden

When Braden is actively looking to score and use his ability to score on all three levels Purdue is just a different team on offense. That has been evident since the Toledo game but think back to games like Alabama and Arizona from last season and Maryland from this season. Purdue won those games almost single handily because Smith’s ability to score that then opened up the offense for others.

Smith’s numbers the last three games have been borderline video game-esq with 25.3 points, 9.7 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2 steals, and just 2.3 turnovers while shooting 56.5% from the field and 43.8% from behind the arc. Those are numbers that not only get you All American status, those are numbers that place you as a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate.

Against Northwestern, Smith’s aggressive nature really stood out in the first half as he blitzed the Wildcats. His scoring opened up the entire offense, as it did in the previous two games, and when that happens shots come much easier for everyone else on the floor. The key has been that he hasn’t turned the ball over at a high rate, even with the 5 against Northwestern. You can live with some of those aggressive turnovers when he is creating so much as long as other guys don’t have multiple turnovers themselves.

Smith is going to be needed to score and distribute the ball and this is likely a matchup where he is going to put Rutgers in some bad defensive situations. The Scarlett Knights struggled to defend some actions against the Badgers that Purdue will likely run with the best pick and roll point guard in the country.

3 | Make 10 or more Threes and Be Efficient Doing So

Purdue is again one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. It may look a little differently this season without Zach Edey but the Boilers currently have six players shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc, which does include TKR’s 3-7 and Burgess’ 4-10. Colvin, who is a much better shooter than what he has shown so far this season, is at 33% on 17-5 (I did not count Brian Waddell’s 66.7% on 2-3 shooting).

As a team, Purdue shoots 39.6% and is ranked as the 12th best shooting team in the country and when they hit at least ten threes they are 57-5 since the 2018-2019 season. Those big shooting nights on the road can silence one of the very best environments in college basketball that has buoyed Rutgers to numerous big wins since Steve Pikiell took over the program in Piscataway.

And 1 | Don’t Start Slow with a Bunch of Turnovers

Purdue has had a bad habit at times this year of starting really slow offensively and allowing teams to either build leads on them or gain the confidence to hang around longer than they should. That hasn’t happened much in the last three games and some of that may be due to what Caleb Furst and CJ Cox are providing the Boilers from an effort and intensity standpoint. On the road against a team with two of the best players in the country, Purdue simply can’t afford to let their confidence skyrocket and have the fanbase get behind another big upset that could be a salvage to a disappointing season so far.

The Boilers will need to lean heavily on Smith to get them started offensively but it may be a game where the inside presence of TKR needs to hit those early shots at the rim, If he does, that’ll open up the looks from outside for Loyer, Smith, and Cox who are all shooting above 40% on the season. More so than that, the Boilers can’t afford a slow start on defense that allows those young players to gain confidence. That’s what happened for Ace Bailey against Indiana where he scored 36 points and seemed to have the confidence to get and get a shot at will.

Ideally, Purdue would like to be around 12 points by the under 16:00 media timeout. If that happens and Purdue can limit what Rutgers’ can do offensively, it makes it difficult for the Scarlett Knights to grab a victory. The Boilers need to force Rutgers to play from behind.

Players to Watch

Dylan Harper | Guard | 6’6 215 | Freshman | 21.1pts, 5.2reb, 4.5 ast, 1.1stl, 36.8% 3pt

Harper is going to be a top 5 lottery pick in the NBA Draft in a few months. The younger brother of Ron Harper Jr., best known for his halfcourt shot to beat #1 Purdue, he is one of the most offensively gifted college basketball players. He is able to use his bigger frame to get shots at all three levels by rising above smaller defenders or taking larger defenders off the dribble. This probably is CJ Cox’s number one priority to start the game.

Ace Bailey | Guard | 6’10 210 | Freshman | 19.1pts, 7.6reb, 1.0stl, 1.2blk, 33.9% 3pt

Bailey is in the mold of the ideal wing man for today’s NBA: tall, lean, athletic, and can score from all three levels. This is, simply put, going to be a really tough test for the Boilers. Furst and Heide probably get the nod here early on but don’t be surprised to see Colvin or even Waddell given a shot if Bailey is having another game like he did against Indiana.

Prediction

This is a tough one for a number of different reasons. Number one, Purdue hasn’t played well on the road at Rutgers in a very long time, It just seems like a house of horrors for the B1G’s best program over the last near decade. This is probably one of the most inconsistent teams that Pikiell has had from a defensive standpoint but offensively they have a ceiling that can rival anyone because of that elite talent in Harper and Bailey,

Secondly, Purdue has had a tendency to start slow and at a place like Minnesota where the arena is a ghost town, that’s not that big of a deal. Against Rutgers, whose fans seem to relish being the thorn in the sides of Purdue, it just can’t happen. Allowing the fanbase to remain in it and push the Scarlett Knights to the finish line likely means Purdue has allowed a third and maybe fourth scorer to emerge and make this a game down the stretch.

Purdue still has some things to prove on the road where they have struggled so far this season if they want to grab a top four seed in the NCAA Tourney. These are games that Purdue needs to win on the road to get there AND grab another conference title. Has Purdue seemingly turned a corner into reaching more of the ceiling they do have this season?

I’ll say yes given Rutgers doesn’t appear to have anyone that’ll be able to really defend Smith without causing major issues for others on the court. Don’t be surprised to see Bailey placed on Smith at some point in hopes of having his length give him problems. If that’s the case, Smith may get him in early foul trouble and that bodes well for the Boilers.

In the end, a victory is a victory and it doesn’t matter if it is by 20 or 1 when you are on the road and style points in Piscataway mean even less.

Boilers: 82
Rutgers: 76