The Three Pointer: Purdue (13-4) vs. Washington (10-7)

Do the Huskies have enough to grab what may be the biggest upset of the season so far?

The Purdue Boilermakers will make the B1G trek out west to first take on the Washington Huskies before matching up with the Oregon Ducks. Washington, led by first year head coach Danny Sprinkle, is a familiar foe as the Boilers took on his Utah State Aggies in last year’s second round of the NCAA Tourney along with transfer Great Osobor. The Huskies, just 10-7 (1-5) in their first year as a member of the B1G, have enough talent to compete but seemingly have failed to put it all together yet with the high number of transfers they took in.

Osobor leads the Huskies with 14.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists as the centerpiece for another Danny Sprinkle team. The 6’8 do-it-all forward could present some challenges for Purdue with his passing ability but Purdue is well positioned to defend Osobor with TKR, Furst, and Burgess. The Huskies also have talented freshman Zoom Diallo at guard averaging 10.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.

Purdue’s first B1G trip out west comes on the heels of one of the most dominating stretches of conference play the program has had. Over the last 4 games, the Boilers have defeated their conference opponents by at least 18 points and have started 5-1 overall in the B1G for the fifth time under Head Coach Matt Painter. In their game against Nebraska, the Boilers had 32 assists, the fifth most in school history and the most since the 37 the Boilers set for the school record in 1997.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Control Osobor’s Influence to Teammates

Great Osobor has continued to be one of the least recognized big men in college basketball that plays at a high level. The 6’8 big man plays more like Trevion Williams’ in his ability to score and distribute at a high level and the Boilers will need to be very sound in their defensive principles to limit his influence on the floor. Averaging 3.4 assists per game along with 14.3 points, Osobor leads the Huskies in both of those regards. He is able to pass out of double teams to find open teammates while being able to score in the low post and step out to hit open threes (just 23.5% on the year but can hit them).

The job to defend Osobor likely goes to Caleb Furst initially but look for TKR and Burgess to all get a shot. The Boilers will likely continue to double to post on the low side and look to force Osobor into bad decisions and get easy points in transition, something they have done exceptionally well over the last several games. The more Purdue can take Osobor out of the game, the more difficult it becomes for the Huskies as they just don’t have the depth needed to offset a bad night from their big man.

2 | Let Braden be Braden

The last several weeks have seen Purdue open up the offense a bit more simply by letting Braden Smith be….Braden Smith. One of the best passers in the country, Smith’s ability to get into the open court and make the best decision to get a bucket at the rim or an open shot behind the arc is unparalleled this season. In fact, Smith leads the country in assist rate at 47.8%, a full 2.1% ahead of the next closest player and nearly 3% better than the next major conference player (Jeremy Fears, Michigan State).

Purdue has shifted the way their offense is initiated by having Smith take a ball screen and getting TKR a pocket pass at the free throw line. Getting into that position allows TKR to score or distribute to an open shooter. That isn’t possible without Smith’s high level ability to control the ball via the pick and roll, but he also needs to go hunt for his shot to keep the defense honest.

When Smith has been at his best, as he has been over the last several games, Purdue looks the part of a top 10 team and one that can make another deep run in March. Averaging 20 and 10 as a point guard over the last five games and moving himself into the legitimate conversation for National Player of the Year raises the ceiling Purdue has. Everyone knew Smith was good…I’m not sure many saw this level of play coming following the loss of Edey.

3 | Don’t Give Up Open Three Pointers

Washington isn’t a great shooting team but what helps any poor shooting team is open looks with 213th rated 3pt shooting team at just 32.7%. That places them 13th in the B1G ahead of Rutgers (224th), Minnesota (235th), Northwestern (270th), Indiana (274th), and Michigan State (336th). The worst thing you can do to help out a poor shooting team is to turn the ball over, which seems to be something Purdue has gotten a handle on over the last several games. The second thing, though, is allowing open looks for shooters.

When you give a team like this open looks and they start to hit them, their confidence gets inflated and suddenly a poor shooting team is at 40% or higher for the game and it spills to other parts of their game. The Boilers just need to continue to stick to their fundamental defensive concepts and work hard in their rotations to prevent open looks.

Purdue will need to focus mainly on Willhelm Breidenbach (41.7%) and Tyler Davis (44.9%) as the two best shooters who don’t get the most shots but still hit at a really good rate. The guy that Purdue can ill afford to get hot though is Butler transfer DJ Davis who takes an average of 5.1 shots from behind the arc per game but shoots just 33.8% hitting 1.7 per game. If Purdue loses track of him and Davis starting gaining confidence, he can get to ten total threes taken and hit 5 or 6 of them, and that would put Purdue in a rough spot given the players around him as well.

And 1 | TKR and Furst Need to Stay on the Floor

This is one that should be so abundantly clear over the last several weeks. We all knew TKR was going to be a key piece in the success of the team this year given what he flashed at times last season alongside Edey and when he had the floor to himself. The significant improvement though, has been just how important Caleb Furst has become to the success this season.

Furst’s ability to defend multiple types of players on the interior to his marked improvement offensively as a finisher around the rim has raised the ceiling for Purdue exponentially. It’s a welcome sight for a guy that has worked his ass off the last four seasons to get where he is. To see the fruits of that labor is great and it seems his presence on the floor is something Purdue desperately needed. He is almost always going to be the 5th option on the floor, especially as CJ Cox continues to gain confidence and emerge as a scorer, but simply being a viable scoring threat on rebounds, dump passes, and even in the PNR makes Purdue an incredibly difficult assignment to defend.

Furst is currently averaging 4.5 points and 2.8 rebounds but has flashed his ability to give more when the opportunities present themselves due to how defenses are defending Smith, TKR, and Loyer. That’s the biggest thing Furst can do for Purdue’s success: take the chances he gets and finish them.

Players to Watch

Great Osobor | Forward | 6’8 245 | 14.3pts, 8.6reb, 3.4ast

The transfer from Utah State that traveled to Washington with Danny Sprinkle, Osobor’s scoring is down just a tick from 17 points last season. Osobor is an intriguing player who, at 6’8, plays the center position as both a scorer and facilitator. He is similar to Trevion Williams, although he is not the scorer or passer that Williams was. Osobor leads the Huskies in points, rebounds, and assists so it will be a key in controlling his ability to influence his teammates.

Zoom Diallo | Guard | 6’4 180 | 10.9pts, 2.9reb, 2.8ast, 21.4% 3pt

Diallo, a top 50 recruit in the 2024 class from Tacoma, was a big recruiting win for Sprinkle in his first year. Diallo is a big time talent who is starting to put things together as the season has gone on. Not a polished scorer from deep, Diallo can use his length to get to the rim and score or draw fouls. He has taken 60 free throws, second most on the team to Osobor. Depending on who starts alongside Diallo, Osobor, and Harris, defending him could start off with CJ Cox or Fletcher Loyer.

Prediction

This is a game where, if Purdue plays to their average and doesn’t allow the home crowd to get behind and uplift their squad, they should win by eight or more. Purdue will start the game with the three most talented players on the floor and they have a much deeper bench as well. Purdue is going to have to prove they can play well on the road.

So far this season, Purdue has played just four true away games and have split those so far going 2-2. A victory tonight would put Purdue at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in their away games. The goal for any B1G title is to win 9 to 10 of your home games and then split your away games and a victory tonight very nearly gets Purdue to that goal in their away games. This is one, if you are the Boilers, you just can’t afford to let slip in that goal for a B1G Title and to get the highest seed possible in the NCAA Tourney.

TKR and Furst team up to have another really good game and Braden Smith does Braden Smith things. Boilers don’t roll the Huskies quite as much as their previous B1G opponents but they grab an important win nonethe less.

Boilers: 79
Washington: 70