The Three Pointer: Purdue (15-4; 7-1) vs. Ohio State (10-8; 2-5)

What may look like an easy win for the Boilers when looking at the records may be a lot more difficult than many realize

After a successful trip to the Pacific Northwest where they were able to grab important road victories against the Washington Huskies and the #15 Oregon Ducks, the Purdue Boilermakers will return home to face an Ohio State Buckeyes squad that is a lot more dangerous than their overall record would indicate. Facing the Buckeyes in the first game of the three game homestand, that has a week off between games two and three, the Boilers will need to play their best against a team that has seemingly put things together but haven’t been able to get over the hump to gather the wins necessary for a tourney run.

Entering their eighth conference game, the Buckeyes are just 2-5 but that record doesn’t show how competitive they have been. In their five losses to Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, Oregon, and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes have really only struggled against Maryland back in December. In fact, their last three games against the Ducks, Badgers, and Hoosiers have seen each game coming down to a single score with the Indiana game going into overtime. The shows that second year head coach Jake Diebler has his team trending in the right direction but just hasn’t figured out ways to win close games, something that they will inevitably figure out.

The Boilers traveled to the west coast carrying one of the most efficient offenses in the country but seemed to travel with a better defense and rebounding squad than what had showed previously. Their shooting was an abysmal 5-25 combined in both games from behind the arc but they limited their turnovers and ground the Huskies and Ducks into lots of turnovers and bad shots. Returning to Mackey comes at a pivotal moment for the Boilers as they have the chance to take control of the B1G race halfway through the season by going 3-0 on this homestand to get to 10-1 with potential victories over OSU, first place Michigan (7-0 in conference), and Indiana (5-3 in conference). To do that, the Boilers will need to grab an important game against the Buckeyes first.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Get the Offense Going Early

An ideal 2-0 trip for the Boilermakers could have very well been a disaster and it very nearly was. For a team that is as touted behind the arc as the Boilers are, they have now had three of their last four games go very poorly shooting from distance. In the first fifteen games of the season, the Boilers had not shot below 30% from three and their lowest had been a 31.3% effort against NC State in San Diego. In the last four games, the Boilers have shot 16.7% against Rutgers, 23.1% against Washington, and 16.7% against Oregon. The good news is that those were all victories and that Purdue gets the best medicine they could by returning to the friendly confines of Mackey Arena. The best news might be the way in which the Boilers won those games: defense.

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The way Purdue makes a major run this season and into a potential back to back final four run is playing the kind of defense they have shown over the last several weeks while getting the offense on track early on. Having the type of suffocating defense that is getting points off turnovers coupled with a team that can put, at times, four 40% three point shooters on the floor around a post player who is dominating like TKR is can be demoralizing for opponents. The issue is that the offense has seemingly gotten itself stuck in neutral early in games too often this season before getting going in the second half.

Against Washington, the 22 points in the first half led to an eight point deficit that was wiped away emphatically with a 47-28 point second half. The Boilers had a similar outcome against Oregon in which they held an 11 point lead late before settling into a seven point victory. The key really comes down to the big three of TKR, Smith, and Loyer hitting the shots that are there early on, something they have simply failed to do as of late. Doing that, at home inside Mackey Arena, makes them nearly unbeatable.

The Boilers should aim to get themselves out into quicker offense by allowing Cox and Loyer to initiate the offense’s secondary fast break to find in rhythm shots. If that isn’t there, allowing Smith to then get the ball high and setting the offense gets the best shot they can get. It just has been that Purdue’s been able to go on their runs when the offense is seemingly more up tempo than what they showed to start the season.

2 | Make Bruce Thornton Work for His Points & Limit His Playmaking Ability

Bruce Thornton is one of those players from another program that just makes you think: how long has this guy actually played? A starter from the time he walked on campus, Thornton is a high level player who has seen his points per game steadily increase from 10.6 as a freshman to 17.4 as a junior this season. Thornton has also seen his efficiency and shooting percentages go up as well to the tune of being a 52.6% shooter from the field and 41.1% from behind the arc.

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Thornton is going to get his points as he has averaged 16.9 points in conference this season and he is too talented to just shut him down. That, coupled with Purdue’s defense lacking an elite perimeter defender (I know Cox, Colvin, and Harris are really good defenders and Smith may be named to the all defensive team, but they are better as sums of the whole right now), the goal for Purdue is going to make sure he needs to take 15 to 20 shots to get to that average.

3 | Get to the Free Throw Line & Hit At a 75% Rate

Ohio State is a solid who is still ranked as the 34th best team according to Kenpom and sits at 36th in the NET. For a team that is just 10-8 overall, the metrics seem to believe they are much better than their record. One of the things this team does struggle with though is fouling and sending opponents to the free throw line. In fact, the Buckeyes have given up 20 or more free throws in every game this season except 3 with four games of 30+ this season (40 given up to Texas A&M).

On the other hand, the Boilers have definitely been up and down from the charity stripe so far this season. The Boilers have shot 70% or worse from the free throw line eight times so far this season and are currently ranked 165th in the country with a team percentage of 72.2%. That percentage really takes a hit due to TKR’s 60.4% (67-111) and his jekyl-hyde shooting from there came to the forefront against Washington and Oregon where he went 3-7 and then 9-9.

Teams may start to go at TKR if he gets inside position to put him on the foul line and he is going to have to make them pay. Against Oregon, that got them into some foul trouble in the second half that really impacted the game. As a whole, the Boilers will need to take advantage of a glaring weakness and make it an overwhelming positive. The Buckeyes are not a strong team on the interior and TKR, Furst, and Smith should have a day where they can make things happen or draw fouls simply from being aggressive in how they attack the rim.

And 1 | Control the Interior on Both Ends

Ohio State doesn’t have the level of interior players that Purdue has in TKR and Furst and the certainly don’t have the level of guard that Braden Smith is. Ohio State struggles in a lot of ball screen action and tend to play lots of drop coverage as a result. It is here where Smith needs to make good decisions and may find more opportunity for himself at the three point line. It may also lead to lots of opportunities for TKR and Furst on the inside as the Boilers will have a size advantage unless OSU tries to go big with their lineup to match with Sean Stewart and Evan Bradshaw at the same time, something the Bucks have yet to do this season.

The Boilers also need to continue their effort on the glass where they have outrebounded or had a draw in six of their last seven games. The only game where they were held below their opponent was at Rutgers by a county of 32-25. This is a game where Purdue should be able to control the boards and limit possessions for an OSU offense that can be extremely streaky. Coach Painter consistently calls for kills on the defensive end which largely goes hand in hand with defensive rebounding.

On offense, this is a game where TKR should dominate if he plays up to his ability. He looked like he got a bit shaken with Bittle’s defense on him inside but was still able to relay his effort into 23 points. Against OSU, if he gets back to being efficient and continues his hot streak at the free throw line, this is a game where he could potentially be looking at vaulting himself into another B1G Player of the Week award. But don’t discount Caleb Furst who could be staring at a game that plays directly into his hands as a mobile big whose effort on the glass leads to scoring opportunities.

Players to Watch

Bruce Thornton | Guard | 6’2 215 | Junior | 17.4pts, 2.9reb, 4.3ast, 41.1% 3pt

Thornton is one of the best overall guards in the B1G who can do it all for the Buckeyes. His decision making has grown over the last several years along with his shot selection. He isn’t going to be pressed to score but he will go get shots if those around him are struggling. It’ll be interesting to see who takes Thornton first but my guess would be CJ Cox.

Devin Royal | Forward | 6’6 215 | Sophomore | 13.8pts, 7.4reb, 1.4ast, 1.1stl, 20.7% 3pt

Royal has made a solid jump from his freshman year to be one of OSU’s more reliable players. The former top-40 recruit leads the Buckeyes in rebounds and is their second leading scorer. He presents some matchup problems for many teams but against the Boilers may struggle. This is probably TKR’s matchup early on with Furst tagging Sean Stewart in the middle.

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John Mobley | Guard | 6’1 180 | Freshman | 12.5pts, 1.7reb, 1.8ast, 43.3% 3pt

The best outside shooter the Buckeyes have, Mobley takes an average of 5.3 shots from beyond the arc every game. However, he has shown a good ability to get into the lane and score. He can cause the Boilers some issues if they turn the ball over and let the Buckeyes get out into transition. This matchup probably goes to Braden Smith early on to allow CJ Cox to pick up the Buckeyes’ primary ball handler (Thornton).

Prediction

As has been stated numerous times already, this is a good basketball team that seems like they just haven’t figured out how to win close games. If you flip the last three games that fell to one possession wins, OSU’s season looks a lot different at 13-5 overall. At that record, they would probably be in the conversation for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tourney. Instead, they are going to be fighting for some season defining wins that’ll build their resume and what better opportunity than at Mackey Arena against a surging Purdue squad.

The Buckeyes really struggled at times against the Hoosiers to defend high ball screen action and that is where Purdue really has made their way offensively over the last several weeks. Will they look to blitz the screen, something they haven’t done much, or go into drop coverage like they did against IU? If they go into drop coverage, that is immediately playing into the strengths of the best point guard in the country to have a big game both scoring and assists.

As much as the big three should be able to control this game, this is a game where Caleb Furst can make a major impact through his effort rebounding the ball and scoring points off second effort. Although someone else may get the credit, this seems like a game where Furst is able to go for another 10 points and 7 rebounds along with impacting the defensive end.

Boilers: 79
Buckeyes: 72