The Three Pointer: Purdue (15-5) vs. Michigan (14-4)

The Boilers will look to get themselves back into contention for a third straight B1G Title

The Purdue Boilermakers return back to Mackey Arena for the second game in their three game home stint following a surprising upset loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in a game where they led by sixteen points at one point late in the first half. It was a disappointing result for a Purdue team that was looking to keep themselves in striking distance of Michigan State in the B1G title race. Instead, the Boilers will need to defeat a very good Michigan squad who comes into Mackey Arena 6-1 in the conference.

Michigan is led by first year head coach Dusty May with two of the most impressive big men in the country with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, creating a lineup very similar to what Purdue has had for years with two big men in the middle. That presents a lot of problems for opponents considering Wolf’s ability to shoot from behind the arc but also handle the ball at over 7’ tall.

The Boilers will counter with their own set of bigs in TKR and Furst that’ll be able to handle those Michigan bigs better than most other teams, but the game likely comes down to how well Purdue can leverage their advantage at the guard positions with Smith and Loyer.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer!’

1 | Defend the Big to Big Action of Wolf and Goldin

In the same way that the duo of Smith and TKR have formed one of the hardest actions to defend in college basketball with their high ball screen and short roll action, Michigan has a similar action they run with both of their bigs. Yes, their two 7’ run an on ball screen action that, with Danny Wolf’s ability to pass, makes it really hard to defend.

Joe Jackson (@JoeJacksonCBB) went into great depth on this on his own website at ‘Feed the Post’, which does a far better job than anything that I could put together analytically about most anything basketball related. He says that opponents have multiple issues guarding this action that include:

• Bigs aren’t used to having to guard ball handlers in pick and rolls
• Danny Wolf can see everything and pass to anyone
• Michigan surrounds Wolf (generally) with 3 shooters and an elite rolling big
• Wolf is good at basketball

*Seriously, if you aren’t following Joe or his site, you seriously need to check it out!

The advantage that Purdue has is that TKR and Furst are pretty interchangeable on the defensive end and both move really well laterally. It’s also a major advantage that Purdue has played with the double big lineup as a part of their regular rotation, so it isn’t something they have to suddenly get used to.

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

It’ll be interesting to see how Purdue defends the big to big action and don’t be surprised to see Purdue try to tag Goldin as he rolls to the rim to ensure he doesn’t get a free attack at the rim while they’ll try to close out hard on Wolf so he and Goldin don’t have open looks behind the arc where they shoot 37.3% and 56.3%, respectively.

2 | Turn the Wolverines Over & Turn Them Into Points

Michigan has one of the most efficient offenses in the country where they are 3rd in both effective field goal percentage and shooting inside the arc while being 34th from behind the arc at 37.7% on the season. Those types numbers mean the Wolverines average 83.3 points per game in conference play, good for 3rd overall in the B1G.

What Michigan doesn’t do well, though, is limit their turnovers. During conference play, the Wolverines are averaging 13.1 turnovers per game which is the worst in the conference and also hold a turnover percentage of 18.6, second worst in the conference. That play directly into the hands of the Boilers who have, over the last several weeks, suddenly found themselves generating steals and turnovers at high rates. In fact, the Boilers lead the B1G in turnover percentage defense at 21.9% and force 14.3 turnovers per game (1st in B1G) and 7.3 steals per game (3rd in B1G).

Turning these turnovers into points is going to be so important for the Boilers in a game where both are matched evenly. Any time you can limit possessions from your opponent to less than yours and you can steal points from them from turnovers, especially on the road, it bodes well for your chances to win. The Boilers likely need to get above Michigan’s season average of turnovers (14.6) and need to generate at least 15 points off those turnovers.

3 | Have a Good Shooting Night

The shooting for the Boilers over the last several games has been, well, rather rough. Over their last five games, the Boilers are shooting just 34.1% from behind the arc. That includes the 54.6% night against the Cornhuskers where Purdue hit 19-33. If you take that single game out of the equation, the Boilers are just 12-58 (20/.6%) and have failed to hit more than three shots from behind the arc in the last three games. That’s unacceptable for a team that is full of shooters who are talented enough to have four or five guys on the roster at or above 40% behind the arc.

Purdue rarely has two bad games in a row, so it was a surprise to see a struggle again from behind the arc for a third game. If the Boilers want to avoid a disappointing loss, they need to avoid a fourth straight night where they are struggling to make shots from behind the arc. Some of that may simply being too unselfish for players like Smith and Loyer who should be the guys being option 1, 2, and 3 most possessions for a shot behind the arc.

Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Purdue isn’t going to get an easy matchup in this regard though as the Wolverines enter with the 29th best defensive 3pt percentage shooting defense in the country at 29.7%. That also places them 2nd in the conference this season. This isn’t like Purdue is taking tough, contested threes, rather they are generating open looks but not connecting. If that’s the case again, the Boilers need to try and get into transition a bit more as that has seemingly been a way for Purdue to get their offense going this season.

And 1 | Create an Overwhelming Advantage by Limiting Turnovers

Against good teams, you can really create a more even playing field simply by not turning the ball over. The Boilers have, after some early season struggles, seemingly figured that part of the game out a bit. They average just 10.2 turnovers per game in conference, good for the third lowest in the conference. When you then take into account that Michigan generates only 8.6 turnovers per game, the lowest in the conference, you can see how Purdue can really make it difficult for the Wolverines.

When you then take into account Michigan’s propensity to turn it over themselves at 13.1 times per game, this is something Purdue has to dominate in. The Boilers have been able to create 15 or more turnovers in right games so far this season but getting to Michigan’s average of 13 should be the goal while minimizing your own to 8 or less. If that happens, or an even bigger gap is able to be generated, Purdue can win this game in a manner that may surprise most.

Players to Watch:

Vladislav Goldin | Forward | 7’1 240 | 16.4 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 1.4 Ast, 1.8 Blk

Goldin is one of the front runners for B1G Player of the Year honors as the senior is averaging 16.4 and 6.1. Those are good numbers for the transfer that followed Dusty May from FAU to Michigan. This assignment probably goes to Furst initially but he and TKR will be switching regularly between Goldin and Wolf. We may even get a Will Burg sighting in regular time if a bigger body is needed at times.

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Danny Wolf | Forward | 7’ 240 | 12.5 Pts, 10.2 Reb (leads B1G), 3.9 Ast, 56.3% 3pt (9/16)

Wolf was the player who led the Yale Bulldogs to the biggest upset in the 2024 NCAA Tourney as they defeated the 4th seeded Auburn Tigers in the first round. Wolf spent his first two season at Yale but has remained constant from what he was showing in the Ivy League. With Wolf’s ability to handle the ball and play on the perimeter, this likely goes to TKR initially but don’t be surprised to see Furst or Heide get some time on Wolf as well when Burgess is in.

Prediction:

This is a tough one considering we haven’t seen the offense of the Boilers really show up once they left for the West Coast and then returned. It would stand to reason that, with nights in their own beds and a chance to nitpick themselves due to the loss to Ohio State, the offense should improve a bit. It’ll come down to some intangible things like effort, focus, and depth. Yes, this is a game where Purdue can really leverage their deep bench if they can give them quality time while doing so.

Michigan’s five starters all play 26 minutes or more so far this season with their sixth man getting just 15.2 minutes per game. That player, Will Tschetter, subs in as an interchangeable piece for Goldin and Wolf, so getting the Wolverines into foul trouble would mean a big advantage for the Boilers. In fact, the Boilers foul just 14.8 times per game which places them 40th for fewest fouls per game. The Wolverines don’t do as good a job as they average 17.3, good for 207th.

This should be a game where Braden Smith is able to take advantage of his ability with UM really lacking a guard who can handle him one on one for an entire game. It’s also a game where the others around TKR, Smith, and Loyer need to show up and provide proper support scoring, rebounding, and limiting turnovers.

Smith flirts with another triple-double, Loyer his three 3’s of his own, and TKR is able to get one of the Michigan bigs in foul trouble. Michigan is able to scramble a bit and it is another one of those nail biters at the end because Purdue seemingly struggles to really step on opponent’s throats at times.

Boilers: 77
Michigan: 73