The Three Pointer: Purdue (16-5; 8-2) vs. Indiana (14-7; 5-5)

One of the biggest rivalries in all of college sports takes centerstage again as the Boilers and Hoosiers will meet in Mackey Arena

The Purdue Boilermakers will finish their B1G three game home stand by hosting the Indiana Hoosiers, marking the 220th game in a series that Purdue leads 127-92 and the Boilers have won 15 of the last 19 meetings. This one marks a potential important turn for both programs for this season as the Boilers are vying for a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney with an outside chance at a 1 seed while the Hoosiers are fighting for their tourney lives and desperately need a season defining win.

The Hoosiers are in the fourth season under Head Coach Mike Woodson and currently sit at 14-7 overall with a win over Ohio State being their best so far of the season. A season that started with promise behind a litany of notable transfers like Oumar Ballo, Myles Rice, and Luke Goode just haven’t seemed to coalesce with returners Mackenzie Mgbako, Trey Galloway, and Malik Reneau (although he has been dealing with injuries). That has led to a NET rating of 68th with a Q1 record of 2-7 and a Kenpom ranking of 62nd, reflecting a season that has not gone the way many expected.

On the other side, the Boilers have used a strong month of January to vault themselves into serious conversations for back to back Final Four appearances. In December, that conversation centered mostly around a team that was struggling to adjust defensively to the absence of Zach Edey. Now, that same team is forcing an amazing 15.3 turnovers per game since the loss to Auburn, grabbing 8.4 steals per game, and limiting opponents to just 61.9 points per game. In just B1G games, the Boilers are 1st in turnover percentage rate, 3rd in offensive rebounding percentage, 5th in free throws allowed, 4th in three point defense percentage, and first in steal percentage.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Force Indiana to Turn the Ball Over

One of the things before the season started that was a cause for concern about this Hoosiers team was a lack of proven ball handlers (on top of a lack of outside shooting). Yes, Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle are capable in that role and the Hoosiers still have do-it-all Trey Galloway, but there simply is a lack of players who are reliable enough to not turn it over on a consistent basis. Rice and Galloway, who have been the primary ball handlers for the Hoosiers all season, average nearly 5 turnovers per game between the two of them. Some may counter point that with the fact that TKR and Smith average the same amount of turnovers between them as well, but Rice and Galloway are not the primary scorers for their teams thus necessitating they have the ball in their hands a majority of the time.

With that in mind, the Boilers have used Smith, Cox, Colvin, and Harris to really apply pressure to opposing guards to handle the ball at a high level and not make mistakes. Although that’s been the standard now for the Boilers for 9 games, the fact that Purdue has that many high level perimeter defenders allows them to get easier opportunities off steals and poor shots. In fact, since the Toledo game, Purdue has forced double digit turnovers in every game but one (Minnesota, 7) and are averaging a conference best of 15.1 forced turnovers per game.

If the Boilers can force the Hoosiers above their season average of 12.2 turnovers and continue to cash in on those opportunities, especially with transition threes from Smith, Loyer, Colvin, and Cox, the Boilers can really apply pressure to a team that has struggled from outside to keep pace. It all means nothing, though, if Purdue doesn’t continue to take care of the ball themselves.

2 | Keep the Hoosiers Out of the Paint

The Hoosiers went deep into the portal to restock themselves and one of the best additions for any team with Oumar Ballo leaving the Arizona Wildcats and making the trip to Bloomington. Purdue has a lot of experience with Ballo over the last several years so they know the kind of athlete and scorer he is but he has added a bit more confidence in his ability to pass out of the paint. This season at Indiana, Ballo is averaging 2.6 assists per game which is a huge jump from his time at Gonzaga and Arizona.

It isn’t just Ballow being good in the post as Purdue is going to double the post as they do consistently against every opponent. It is going to have to keep others from driving into the lane to force help or double teams limits Ballo’s ability to score as he isn’t a high level creator for himself and needs help to score off lobs and low post opportunities. That means Myles Rice, Trey Galloway, and Mackenzie Mgbako can’t be allowed to continually get themselves into the paint to create shots for themselves or others.

3 | Let Braden Control the Tempo

This is probably one of the biggest keys to Purdue’s success, not only recently but moving forward. Braden Smith is playing not only like he is the best point guard in the country, he is playing like he is the best player in the country. With that level of ability, it seems Coach Painter has fully unleashed Braden to be the maestro of the orchestra he has built this season.

Smith thrives in the open court where he has Colvin, Heide, and Furst angling for lobs at the rim for massive alley oops while also having Harris, Loyer, and Cox cutting to the wings and corners for open threes. His ability to weave in and out of traffic in transition to find those players is second to none, but when he starts to hunt more for his offense in that same regard Purdue’s ceiling is raised significantly.

Smith is a facilitator at his core, wanting to get his teammates engaged on the offensive end as any true point guard should do. The issue is Smith also happens to be one of the very best pure scorers in the country, especially when coming off a screen anywhere on the floor. It creates an issue for a player who is expected to do both and it seemed to create some conflict earlier in the season without the ability to just default to Edey. He seems to have found his balance and the efficiency and effectiveness of the Boilers on both ends has shifted significantly.

Smith has the trust of his coaching staff and his teammates and the experience from starting ninety five games in his career to be able to fully run the show for the Boilers. In the final third of the regular season, it’s time to fully unleash Braden Smith.

And 1 | Bring the Energy!

It doesn’t need to be said for Boilermaker fans to know how big this game truly is. It doesn’t matter if it was #1 vs. #2 or both teams hadn’t won a single game up to this point. When it is the Indiana Hoosiers vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, Mackey Arena is going to be the loudest place in college basketball. It’ll be chaotic for Indiana who has some major contributors making their first trip to Mackey in Ballo, Rice, Carlyle, and Tucker.

Everyone already knows how great Mackey Arena already is but this is another opportunity to show truly how special of a place it is. Boiler Up!

Players to Watch:

Oumar Ballo | Senior | Center | 7’ 265 | 14.5pts, 10.2reb, 2.6ast, 1.7blk

Ballo, following his transfer from Arizona, has continued to be one of the best low post scorers in the country. A big bodied center who can play extended minutes (he played 39 minutes against Maryland), Ballo thrives in an offense that gets up and down the court with his athleticism. One of his biggest weaknesses comes at the free throw line where he shoots just 57% for his career. This might be a game where Will Berg sees some minutes if Purdue wants to put him on the free throw line down the stretch to get him off the floor or risk conceding a single free throw for 2’s or 3’s. This opportunity goes to Furst and TKR to start but Burgess and Berg likely have some time on the floor to defend Ballo as well.

Mackenzie Mgbako | Sophomore | Forward | 6’9 222 | 12.5pts, 4.7reb, 1.3ast, 35,5% 3pt

Mgbako is a tailor-made NBA forward in today’s game. A smooth athlete at 6’9 and 222, Mgbako is adept at scoring from all three levels and has the ability to put big numbers on the scoreboard with four games above 20 points this season but struggles with some consistency issues as he nine games in single digits. When Mgbako has scored in double digits, the Hoosiers are 9-3 but just 5-4 when he doesn’t. TKR likely defends Mgbako to start the game with Heide taking the second crack.

Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Trey Galloway | Senior | Guard | 6’5 205 | 7.1pts, 2.0reb, 4.1ast, 35% 3pt

Are there other players who, statistically speaking, should be placed higher on this list? Yes, but Galloway appears to be the emotional leader of this Indiana squad (if it has one). When Galloway is playing really well, the Hoosiers can line up against most anyone in the country. When he has double digit scoring nights, the Hoosiers are 6-2 and his ability to hit shots seems to carry over to others more so than any other player on that roster. Defending Galloway likely goes to CJ Cox with Colvin and Harris picking up when he is off the floor.

Prediction:

The more you line this game up analytically, the more you tend to see that Purdue should win this game going away. When you include that this is a home game for the Boilers on a Friday night against their biggest rival, it bends more in favor of the Boilers. That being said, in a rivalry game you should never discredit your opponent and the Hoosiers have talent up and down their roster. The issue for the Hoosiers and really anyone else in the country: they don’t have Braden Smith.

Smith has seemingly turned a corner, again, and is playing at a level that the B1G hasn’t seen much over the course of the last 50+ years. When your comparisons to what you are doing are in the realm of Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd, you are doing something right. Being that Smith plays better when he is angry and has a chip on his shoulder, he may still resent not getting an offer from the state university.

Smith and TKR are again solid with Loyer chipping in three or more three’s when he is left open with Smith snaking his way through the lane. It’ll be chippy and it’ll be physical but I like the Boilers to win games like that over the Hoosiers if it does get close.

Boilers: 82
Hoosiers: 71