The Three Pointer | Purdue (19-5; 11-2) vs. Michigan (18-5; 10-2)

The Boilers can take a major step forward in winning a B1G Title with a road victory against the Wolverines

The Boilers will have the first of their three return games of the B1G season when they head to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines. In the first matchup, the Boilers used a dominating defensive performance along with strong first ten minutes to win 91-64. In that victory, the Boilers were able to neutralize the Michigan front court duo of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin while forcing Michigan into a season high 22 turnovers.

The Wolverines have rebounded from that loss to win four straight close games against Penn State, Rutgers, Oregon, and Indiana by an average of 3.5 points. Michigan continues to be one of the more consistent teams overall in the B1G but can be subject to wild swings within each game. Led by their frontcourt of Wolf and Goldin, the Wolverines are one of the best rebounding teams (34.8 total rebounds per game) in the B1G while also sharing the ball at the second best rate of assists per game in the conference (16.8).

The Boilers are led by their two likely All American candidates in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn with the duo combining for 35 points, 11 rebounds, 11.2 assists, and 3.3 steals. Both juniors have been stellar over the entire course of the season but have seemingly hit another gear in the new year. While Smith is averaging 18 points, 9 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.2 steals, TKR has been equally successful averaged 19.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and is shooting nearly 61%. Those are All American and award winning stat lines.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Turn the Wolverines Over & Minimize Boilermaker Turnovers

Like most of the teams in the country, Michigan has a few weak spots that, at this point in the season, aren’t likely to suddenly get fixed. For Purdue, the lack of an interior defensive presence at the rim and a propensity to foul trouble in the front court might be Purdue’s biggest issues. For the Wolverines, it is a much more glaring issue that is likely the cause of why they may find themselves in a difficult situation in an early round matchup in the NCAA Tourney: turnovers.

Michigan is a really solid team overall, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. The issue is that Michigan’s numbers are sort of negated due to their propensity to turn the ball over in big numbers. On the season, they Wolverines turn the ball over an average of 14.7 times per game and only slightly improve to 13.8 in B1G play. That is the worst in the B1G and 18th worst in the country overall. That is a glaring issue by itself but when they don’t do a particularly good job of turning their opponents over (9.5 per game in B1G), it means opponents can expect to gain 3 more possessions throughout the course of a game.

In the first matchup, it was one of the factors that led to the blowout win for the Boilers as Michigan turned it over 22 times while Purdue only had 6. When you account for Michigan holding a 35-30 advantage rebounding, Purdue essentially held a +17 advantage in possessions throughout the course of the game. When that happens, you just aren’t going to win very many games.

On the road, it shouldn’t be expected to turn the Wolverines over with that same amount of frequency but you would be mistaken. The Wolverines average 14.7 turnovers per game at home while averaging 14.9 in true away games. In fact, Michigan has had only two games in which they had less than double digit turnovers and in both of those games they had 9. To compare, Purdue has had seven such games this season while only getting above 16 turnovers once (Penn State). Michigan has had 7 such 16+ turnover games.

2 | Don’t Let the Wolverines Dominate the Boards

To counteract that negligence with the ball, Michigan has leveraged their length and size to gaining advantages on the glass. They aren’t an elite rebounding team but rank 56th in the country with 38.1 total rebounds per game with most of that work coming on the defensive end with 27.4 per game. When you play two seven footers most of the game together in whatever combination of Wolf, Goldin, and Tschetter you want, you are going to have an advantage to start. So what can Purdue do?

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For one, Purdue needs to do a good job of tagging guys as a shot is taken and making contact during their box out. Purdue has, at times this season, seemingly fallen into the ‘Zach will clean it up’ memories on the defensive end. That has allowed teams recently to sustain really long offensive possessions that can be demoralizing when they end in points (see the Indiana game for example).

Rebounding continues to be one of the things that Purdue is just going to struggle with at times this year. Luckily, rebounding can be fixed simply through providing higher effort and focus as it really isn’t skill related. Yes, you get guys like Biggie, Edey, and Braden Smith who seem to have an innate skill to rebounding the ball, but mostly it is just about wanting the ball more. It’s why Furst being inserted into the starting lineup has been a boost to Purdue’s rebounding efforts on both ends.

Purdue doesn’t need to outrebound the Wolverines to win, although it would obviously help. What it needs to do is maintain a close gap of 4 to 5 and allow their disruptive defense do the work to gain more opportunities.

3 | Leverage Your Advantage at the Guard Positions

This isn’t trying to down play the skill and ability of the guards that Michigan has in Tre Donaldson and Roddy Gayle, both of whom are averaging double figures this season. The fact is that Braden Smith is the best point guard in the country (and may end up being in the conversation for best true point guard of all time by the time he is done playing at Purdue) and he elevates everyone around him. Loyer, Cox, and Harris are all better when Smith is not only on the floor but controlling the floor like the general that he is.

Smith has shown he can easily generate shots for others and when he focuses on that just that, he is as tough of a defensive assignment as there is in the country. When he starts being aggressive and searching for his shot, he suddenly elevates the entire team to the level where they are being discussed as a 1 seed with selection Sunday nearing. Smith being patiently aggressive to find his shot and create opportunities for others has to be nightmare fuel for opposing coaches.

4 | Control the Tempo of the Game

Michigan is one of the quicker teams Purdue will play all season in the B1G with a Kenpom adjusted tempo rating of 55th in the country. That isn’t lighting quick like Alabama (1) or what the Illini try to do (13th), but it’s a tempo that is much quicker than what Purdue typically shows from a metric standpoint. Kenpom puts the Boilers at 269th which, although true, doesn’t tell the whole story of how Purdue controls the game.

Purdue’s defense, because it lacks the interior presence to alter shots on the inside, has gone to Smith acting like a free safety to disrupt passing lanes and create scoring opportunities in transition. When Purdue is generating 16+ turnovers per game, those transition opportunities can force an opponent to press on the offensive end against an opponent who is already one of the best offenses in the country as the Boilers rank 8th in Kenpoms adjusted efficiency.

If Purdue isn’t turning the ball over 10 or more times while also turning over their opponent 16+ times and being somewhat even on the boards, it becomes so difficult to beat the Boilers. When you add in Smith’s ability to control a game on both sides in a maestro like manner, good luck.

Players to Watch:

Vladislav Goldin | Center | 7’1 250 | Graduate | 15.7pts, 6.0 reb, 1.6 blk, 1.6 ast, 50% 3pt (9/18)

One of the best centers in the country, Goldin followed Head Coach Dusty May from FIU to Michigan and continues to impress. Goldin has great athleticism for his size and is able to leverage that against other seven footers to great effect while also providing a good presence inside on defense. TKR will get the first opportunity against Goldin with Burgess and Furst taking turns as well.

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Danny Wolf | Forward | 7’ 250 | Junior | 12.7 pts, 10.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.6 blk, 36.8% 3pt

One of the best forwards in the country, Wolf will be on an NBA roster next season if he chooses to go. At 7’, Wolf can handle the ball and get up and down the floor with the best of them and his shooting percentage to stretch the floor makes him a true three level scorer. The big to big action they can run makes Michigan hard to defend throughout a game. Furst will draw the first assignment here with Heide and TKR also getting an opportunity.

Tre Donaldson | Guard | 6’3 195 | Junior | 13.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.3 ast, 41.3% 3pt

Donaldson had a forgettable game the first time around as Smith frequently turned him over and scored 24 points with 10 assists and 6 rebounds. Yes, Donaldson had 11 points but his 6 turnovers and being unable to contain Smith hurt Michigan more than his scoring helped. Donaldson is a really good guard but Purdue made him look very average last time around. Cox will defend Donaldson to start the game with Smith, Harris, and even Colvin taking their turns.

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Prediction

This is a hard game to really predict because it is on the road and Purdue really blew the Wolverines out at Mackey Arena. Michigan has played a lot of close games with 4 of 5 losses being by just one possession and all five of their most recent wins coming by four points or less. In total, the Wolverines last seven games have all been played within four points either way. This is a bit of an opposite situation as what Purdue faced with OSU where the Buckeyes had lost three straight single possession games and the close win was right there.

What has seemingly worked well for Michigan is playing teams who aren’t prepared to play with two bigs for long stretches of games when Michigan is able to do that with Wolf, Goldin, and Tschetter. That doesn’t include Purdue where it is the standard to playing as such with bigs who are capable of defending around the entire half court. Purdue’s ability to defend the big on big action at a high level rendered Michigan’s most effective offense largely useless in the first meeting. Can they do that again?

Smith is playing at an absolutely elite level and TKR is probably right there. Purdue has struggled to really get their outside shooting consistent over the last month yet they sit at 11-2 in the B1G. They showed what they are capable of doing to good teams like Nebraska and Michigan when those outside shots fall. Can they make that happen on the road? History says there is a strong chance for such a performance.

I hate feeling like a homer against a really good team but Purdue NEEDS this win if it wants to win the B1G without relying others to really help them along the way. This groups seems to really understand what is at stake yet staying in the moment. I think this might be like it was for Purdue a few years ago when Indiana swept them where it is just a bad matchup. Purdue is able to defend the double big lineup with they normal lineup but switch to match whatever Michigan tries to do to adjust. For that reason, I’ll take the Boilers in a close one on the road to take another step closer to a third straight B1G title.

Boilers: 78
Michigan: 74