The Three Pointer: Purdue (19-8; 11-5) vs. Indiana (15-11; 6-9)

NCAA Basketball: Maryland at Indiana — Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Boilers and Hoosiers will square up for the last of their two regular season matchups

The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers will square off in an important matchup for both programs as the Boilers look to end a three game losing streak while the Hoosiers are trying to reverse a disastrous ten game stretch that has seen them go just 2-8. That, along with the announcement that Hoosier head coach Mike Woodson will not be returning next season, has led to a some what neutral stance on the game at Assembly Hall tomorrow.

The Hoosiers are led by do-it-all wing Mackenzie Mgbako alongside transfer big man Oumar Ballo but the Hoosiers once promising season has derailed into another likely miss of the NCAA Tourney. Even with the addition of multiple high priority transfers like Ballo (Arizona), Myles Rice (Washington St), Luke Goode (Illinois), and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford), the Hoosiers are just 15-11 overall and 6-9 in the B1G. A season that saw the Hoosiers ranked as high as 14th has turned into a disappointment.

On the other side, the Boilers have been a pleasant surprise although the current three game losing streak has halted a lot of the promise that was held with a really strong January and early February. Trey Kaufman Renn has continued to play stronger and stronger as the season has worn as he has scored 20 or more points in 8 of the last 9 games and averaging 23.6 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 61.2% but has struggled with early foul trouble. It’s a string of games that has also found Braden Smith averaging 18 points, 4.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 2.4 steals but shooting just 30% from behind the arc.

Let’s step into another ‘Three Pointer!’

1 | Get More Scoring from Players Not Named Braden Smith or Trey Kaufman-Renn

As mentioned above, Braden Smith and TKR have been providing the scoring needed throughout the entire season but have really been lights out of the last nine games. The issue, the Boilers are just 5-4 over those games as they haven’t always gotten the scoring from other sources. Although Fletcher Loyer has largely been a supportive third scorer all season, the issue becomes a major one when others aren’t picking up their end of the bargain.

In those last nine games, the Boilers have only had three games where another player has scored in double figures. In the one loss of those three games against Wisconsin, Smith seemed to struggle more than any other game this season with 6 points. Purdue simply can’t rely on their big two to do everything without some major help and that may have to be Fletcher moving forward because he is the most reliable.

Loyer is averaging 13.7 points per game and is being one of the most efficient shooters in the B1G but he has seemingly lost a bit of his shooting confidence of late. A shooter who once took highly contested three pointers has stopped taking those kinds of threes and is trying to drive the ball into the lane where he tends to be less effective. Loyer needs to get back to being a quicker catch-and-shoot player from behind the arc while also having the confidence to come off screens and let it rip.

2 | TKR and Furst Stay Out of Foul Trouble

This one is one of the easiest things to see for the Boilers: when TKR and Furst stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor, the Boilers are so much better on both sides of the floor. When one is forced off for long stretches, Purdue takes a major hit on one side or the other but when both struggle it sends Purdue into a nosedive.

Against the Spartans both struggled with foul issues in the first half and that led to a lot of issues for both on each side of the ball because of their fear of getting fouled out like what happened in the Michigan game. Having to rely on Burgess for long stretches isn’t great as the young man still struggles with extended minutes and Will Berg was seen in the first half for the first time in over two months against the Spartans.

TKR’s issues center around not coming set on screens which is an issue that is both his fault and the fault of Braden Smith. Smith has shown a tendency to be impatient of late on ball screens in an effort to get free of his defender. TKR also has a bad habit of not getting his feet set for his screens that he is setting on Smith’s defender, When you combine those two factors, TKR picks up some poor fouls that he shouldn’t.

NCAA Basketball: Purdue at Michigan State

The other issue effects both TKR and Furst as they some times challenge shots at the rim early in the game when a made layup may be a better result if it means they both stay on the floor for longer periods of time. That was something Edey really understood in his final two seasons and a piece that both Furst and TKR need to improve upon in the last portion of this season.

3 | Keep Ballo’s Impact to a Minimum

Ballo has been a bit of a nomad during his time as a college basketball player with stops at Gonzaga and Arizona before his final season at Indiana. That hasn’t stopped him from continuing to be a player that can dominate a game through his low post scoring, rebounding, and altering shots on the defensive end. For the Hoosiers, that impact has meant a lot in the way of the wins and losses this season.

When Ballo scores 11 or fewer points, IU is just 5-6 but are 9-5 when he scores 14 or more. IU is also just 6-7 when Ballo grabs 10 or less rebounds but is 8-4 when he grabs 10 or more. When you combine those, Ballo has grabbed 8 double-doubles this season and IU has gone 5-3. Those are some pretty clear numbers in the ways that Ballo can impact a game for the Hoosiers, especially when you take into account the struggles that TKR and Furst have had staying on the floor in recent games.

And 1 | Force Indiana to Beat You From Where They Struggle…Behind the Arc

Although Indiana isn’t the worst 3pt shooting team in the conference (that distinction goes to Illinois and their 2-26 effort against Duke isn’t going to help either), the Hoosiers are ranked 17th at just 31.1% from behind the arc. The Hoosiers just don’t have enough consistent shooters from the outside to pair with their advantages they have on the interior with Ballo and Reneau. That isn’t even including the kind of weapon that Mgbako is in isolation and as a slasher.

Indiana has just one really volume shooter that is a threat and that is Luke Goode. Goode is shooting 40% from behind the arc, going 50-125 on the season so far. Anthony Leal is actually the highest at 43.8% but is just 7-16 for the season. The drop off from Goode to the next volume three point shooter in Mgbako is staggering as he shoots just 32.3% on 124 total attempts. To put it plainly, Indiana just isn’t a good shooting team from behind the arc.

It would be beneficial if the Boilers took the lessons learned from their loss to Michigan State and applied them against the Hoosiers. Until the Hoosiers prove they can consistently hit threes, Boiler defenders need to go under every screen in an effort to jam the lane and prevent dribble drives. That is what helped Indiana in the first matchup, specifically Trey Galloway. The only Hoosier that should not get that treatment is Luke Goode.

Players to Watch:

Mackenzie Mgbako | #21 | Forward | 6’9 222 | 13pts, 4.8reb, 1.2ast, 32.3% 3pt

A really big wing who can score better from the inside than he can from outside, Mgbako is really the only multidimensional scoring threat the Hoosier have. In the first matchup, he killed the Boilers with 25 points while shooting 10-17 from the floor. The best guess here would CJ Cox getting the first chance to guard Mgbako with Colvin and Heide being used as well.

Oumar Ballo | #11 | Center | 7’0 265 | 13.5pts, 9.4reb, 2.3ast

Still one of the best low post scoring bigs in the country, Ballo is averaging a near double-double in his final collegiate season. This is a matchup that has seemingly favored the Boilers throughout his career as Ballo has yet to beat Purdue at any of his stops. TKR went for 23 points and Ballo fouled out in the first matchup. My guess is Furst will start Ballo on defense but TKR will get the matchup on the other end.

Luke Goode | #10 | Guard | 6’7 203 | 9pts, 3.0reb, 40% 3pt

This is the one guy Purdue has to run off the 3pt line and go over every single screen. He was effective for the Hoosiers in the first game going 3-6 from behind the arc on his way to scoring 13 points. When Goode gets on the floor, watch for old high school teammate Fletcher Loyer to draw this assignment.

Prediction:

This is such a hard one to predict because both teams are likely playing the absolute worst basketball of their respective seasons. The Hoosiers were able to get an impressive road victory against the Spartans but followed that up with a really pedestrian performance at home in a loss against UCLA that may have sealed their overall fate for the NCAA Tourney. How will they respond knowing their only chance for a berth to the Big Dance is in the conference tourney and their head coach isn’t going to be back next season. To be honest, there is a good chance only two or three players return next season for the Hoosiers.

On the other side, Purdue has lost three straight games and have looked rather poor in doing so. A loss at home to a Wisconsin team who was on a heater is a bit understandable but the way they took the losses to Michigan and Michigan State left a sour taste in the mouths of Boilermaker fans. A lot needs to have been corrected since that trip to East Lansing but history does tend to favor the Boilers following a stretch of losses like the last three. It should also be noted that those three happened to come against the other major players in the conference race.

In the end, this is a rivalry game and one that has favored Purdue more often than not in the last decade. Until proven otherwise, Purdue will still likely put the two best players on the floor in this one and have the three of the best four outside shooters as well in Loyer, Harris, and Smith (I’d argue Waddell should be placed here but he can’t get enough playing time). If Purdue doesn’t turn the ball over, communicates on defense, and doesn’t get themselves into foul trouble, this is a game Purdue should win.

TKR goes for 20 and 7 while Smith dabbles with his own double-double in points and assists. Will the bench provide enough to help those two? In this one, yes as Loyer is able to break free a bit and hit multiple threes and the combination of other guards and wings in Cox, Harris, Colvin, and Heide combine for 20 points.

Boilers: 79
Hoosiers: 71