The Boilers are suddenly fighting for a double bye in the B1G Tourney just weeks after being in first place
The Purdue Boilermakers will host the UCLA Bruins at Mackey Arena for the first time since the two met in the first ever game played at Mackey Arena in 1967. The Boilers have played the Bruins ten times throughout the program’s history and sit just 1-9 overall, the worst W/L percentage for any opponent the Boilers have faced more than three times. This one will come with an extra layer of importance for Purdue as they are in the midst of a four game losing streak that has featured losses to Michigan when they held a ten point lead with 14:44 left in the game, a blowout home loss to Wisconsin, a road loss to Michigan State, and a second half undressing to Indiana the likes Purdue fans had rarely seen (28-3 in the first 8:30 of the second half).
UCLA, sufferer of their own four game losing streak earlier in the season, have rebounded from that earlier struggle to go 9-2 in their last 11 games with signature wins against Wisconsin, Oregon, and Michigan State. The Bruins are led by a pair of tall forwards in Tyler Bilodeau (6’9 230) and Eric Dailey Jr. (6’8 230) but will bring in one of the more impactful freshman centers in the country in 7’3 Andy Mara off the bench. It provides one of the better frontcourts in the B1G this season along with a bevy of talented guards around them including former Illini and top-30 recruit Skyy Clark.
Purdue will enter an important game in 5th place in the B1G at 11-6 with an opportunity to create separation between themselves and those around them with a victory as they would hold the tie-breaker against both UCLA and Maryland. The Boilers will be coming off five days rest following a disappointing loss to the Indiana Hoosiers where they held a 37-25 lead at halftime but were outscored 48-21 in the second half. The four game losing streak is the longest Purdue has had since the 2013-2014 season where the Boilers ended the season on a 7 game losing streak on their way to a 2-12 mark over the final 14 games before ultimately finishing 15-17 overall.
Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer’
1 | Stop Turning the Ball Over
Purdue’s magic number continues to be 10 turnovers for themselves and it is a number Purdue has only met once during their four game losing streak. That game, against Wisconsin, is against a team who doesn’t force turnovers to begin with. The others truly cost Purdue games against Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana with the game against the Hoosiers being the most frustrating.
To start that second half at Indiana, Braden Smith had back to back turnovers that led to four Hoosier points. That ballooned into a shot clock violation and the Hoosiers were fully on a major run as Indiana would end up erasing the 12 point lead they faced in just 4:33 of game time. Those three turnovers in that span led to 7 points in a game where the Hoosiers scored 23 points off 16 Purdue turnovers. Simply put, that can’t happen if Purdue wants to beat anyone as it was a replay of games against Penn State, Texas A&M, and Marquette.
Purdue will live with some turnovers from Smith given the gravity he pulls being the primary ball handler. What it can’t live with is live ball turnovers that lead to transition buckets and a lack of effort when mistakes happen. It also can’t have TKR having 3 or more or other players just lacking focus and turning the ball over when they don’t have the same level of responsibility that Braden, and to a less extent CJ Cox, do.
2 | Cut Off Access to the Paint & Force Midrange Jumpers
This is where Purdue’s defense has gotten way off the rails over the last several weeks. In fact, since January 1st Purdue is the worst defensive team in the country at allowing scoring inside the arc. Yes, you read that correctly. 364th out of 364 teams…yikes.
Some of that is due to not having an interior defender that can dissuade opponents from scoring from the threat of getting their shots shoved back in their face or thrown into the fourth row like Purdue has had with guys like AJ Hammons, Isaac Haas, Matt Haarms, and Zach Edey. However, that doesn’t explain how a team like Nebraska is able to have the 29th rated defense with no players averaging more than .8 blocks per game. Now, that is still .5 more per game than Caleb Furst’s .3 per game but the point remains that defenses can be successful without an over imposing shot blocker inside.
It should be mentioned though that Purdue’s defense being ranked in the top 50 of Kenpom’s adjusted defense is bolstered by the fact they have the 31st best 3pt% defense, largely due to how poor the interior defense is. Against UCLA, a team that shoots well behind the arc as a team at 35.5%, Purdue can’t simply sag their defense and force them to shoot threes. Purdue is going to have to force the Bruins into midrange jump shots which tend to be the worst percentage shots at any level of basketball and contest those without fouling.
The other key here will be playing connected defense with lots of communication. Purdue’s defensive concepts want to see them forcing ball handlers into double teams along the baseline, forcing difficult passes back out, and getting turnovers. This requires lots of defensive rotations where teammates communicate about where coverage is going to come from, something Purdue did at an elite level previously. It seems however, since that loss to Ohio State, that communication has been lacking which was a major issue to start the season.
3 | Get Out Into Transition for Easy Scoring Opportunities
This is one piece where the Boilers were really making hay during their run in the middle part of the season. Purdue was turning their opponents over and then making them pay by scoring, sometimes as much as 20 points against opponents. What really made the Purdue offense difficult to defend was when Smith was able to get into the open floor and find cutters to the hoop and players like Cox, Loyer, and Harris dropping off for open threes. Those types of runs can demoralize an opponent and boost the confidence of an entire roster. The issue is, those have all but dried up the last several games.
With Purdue’s defense getting absolutely torched on the inside and unable to force many turnovers, Purdue has been unable to grab quick scoring opportunities and get their offense on track. It has also grounded Purdue’s offense once again to a halt as they possess just the 290th rated team according to tempo on Kenpom. Purdue will likely never been a top 100 tempo team under Matt Painter as he values efficiency and running sets to get the best scorers in the best positions, but Purdue has to be able to steal points when it can. It needs to do a better job with what might be the best open floor point guard in the country as well.
And 1 | Keep TKR and Furst Out of Foul Trouble
This may be the most important factors in the success of the season for the Boilers moving forward. While Raleigh Burgess has flashed at times as a freshman big man who can give good minutes, Will Berg has seemingly struggled to adjust to a bigger role. That leaves just Cam Heide as a very different front court player when one or even both Furst and TKR get into foul trouble.
Some of these fouls, especially from TKR, are just plain silly fouls. Two of the fouls that TKR picked up at Indiana, his bookend fouls actually, were just flat out bad fouls. The first was a poor decision to go after a rebound less than one minute into the game where he had no chance and he ran into the back of a Hoosier. His last foul, that came as Purdue was trying to battle itself back into the game, came on a situation where his silly fouls have come more often than not: an illegal screen.
Furst, on the other hand, seemingly picks up fouls in a multitude of ways from simply playing hard. It’s hard to be upset at that but wiser heads from experienced players must provide better decisions. For Purdue to be at their best, these two must be on the floor as much as possible and sometimes that might mean giving up an easy layup, a contested rebound, or not setting an ideal screen early in the game.
For Purdue to turn their fortunes around, Purdue has to get 55+ minutes per game from the two of them combined.
Players to Watch
Tyler Bilodeau | #34 | Junior | Forward | 6-9 220 | 13.9 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.4 Ast, 44.2% 3pt (34/77)
With Bilodeau and Dailey both being active outside the arc, it’ll be tough to see who draws who first. My guess is Furst draws this assignment first.
Eric Dailey | #3 | Sophomore | Forward | 6-8 230 | 11.6 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 1.4 Ast, 1.3 Stl, 37.8% 3pt (28/74)
Same thing for Dailey but my guess is it’ll likely go to TKR here but both will switch frequently.
Skyy Clark | #55 | Junior | Guard | 6-3 200 | 7.9 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.6 Ast. 1.3 Stl, 39.3% 3pt (35/89)
This’ll likely be the assignment for CJ Cox to start the game as Clark is the primary ball handler for the Bruins. A former Illini player who left mid-season last year, Clark has settled in nicely at UCLA and has shown to be a solid overall lead guard.
Prediction
This is probably the first time in two years that I truly don’t have a positive outlook on a game. That has a lot to do with losing four in a row but it also has a lot to do with the body language and effort levels from the team as a whole. According to an interview ahead of this game, TKR said he called a players only meeting and if the typical reserved and introspective player called it and spoke first then the message was probably received. It was also announced that Matt Painter had meetings with each player as well and those conversations were very, very honest ones.
This is a challenging game for the Boilers in the midst of a four game losing streak and it doesn’t offer any sort of reprieve. With the loss Maryland took to MSU, it opened the door again for the Boilers to claw their way back into a top four finish and a double bye. That’s an important piece for a team that just appears to be tired and need as much of a break headed into the post season.
If Purdue gets back to the way they were playing prior to the Ohio State game, this is a game Purdue should win by 7+. The issue is, I don’t see it happening as UCLA seems as though they have figured out their own issues from a lengthy struggle earlier in the conference season. Until proven otherwise, Purdue is in the midst of their struggles and playing a team that can seemingly exploit those problems Purdue has struggled with is not ideal.
Braden is going to need to be more of a shot taker and shot maker and hopefully only being three assists away from the program record eases the burden and pressure it seems he has played with lately. He needs to get back to playing the kind of freewheeling and confident kind of ball he had just a few weeks ago. Since being vaulted into the national spotlight it has seemed he has tightened up and that doesn’t serve himself or the team well at all. An attacking Smith that is playing intelligent ball is the best version Purdue has this season.
Unfortunately, I don’t see this one playing out positively for Purdue and UCLA grabs a key victory on the way to a top four finish in their first season in the B1G. It just seems like this team has set their vision toward March and the B1G Tourney and NCAA Tourney. That’s unfortunate for a team that had the chance to win a third straight outright conference title.
Mara dominates on the inside as Cronin allows him to play extended minutes and the Purdue bigs don’t take advantage by drawing him away from the hoop through their ability to shoot from outside. That’s something that they have gotten away from and that limits Purdue’s offense heavily.
UCLA: 78
Purdue: 73